40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 4 hours ago, EasternLI said: Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. Your research on these patterns is a life-saver in terms of time trying to do these blogs with 4 little kids. haha. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot. Sept 1997 looks cooler than avg but nothing crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22 Share Posted August 22 During the last 90 days, 86 of them were in MJO phases 6, 7, 8, or 1! The other 4 were only barely into phase 5 (inside circle) and since records started in 1974 there’s no instance of a 90 day period with >95% of the days in either the WPAC or the W Hem/Africa: The closest is 7/25/15-10/22/15, which had 81 of the 90 days (90%) in 6-7-8-1: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 9 hours ago, bluewave said: Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. I don't think -PNA is an El Nino pattern. You are getting randomness because September is the weakest month of the year for ENSO correlation across the Pacific-North America region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 22 Author Share Posted August 22 3rd straight day of <-30 SOI 22 Aug 2026 1013.39 1016.75 -30.23 -19.36 -22.39 21 Aug 2026 1013.48 1017.25 -32.71 -18.78 -22.41 20 Aug 2026 1013.20 1017.40 -35.32 -17.97 -22.25 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 The reduction from traditional nino to relative nino seems different on various sources. The August forecast from the ecmwf had about a 0.8 reduction between the 2. The current noaa weekly sst data is reducing the relative nino by about 0.9 compared to traditional (1.8 v. 2.7). BOM has 2.3 v. 2.8 and the cyclonicwx site has 2.2 v. 2.6. I dont think this means much to the weather or the climate generally but could make a difference when it comes to records and such. Its probably something to do with sst data set differences and perhaps some differences on how it adjusts for the 50 year variance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 5 hours ago, OSUmetstud said: The reduction from traditional nino to relative nino seems different on various sources. The August forecast from the ecmwf had about a 0.8 reduction between the 2. The current noaa weekly sst data is reducing the relative nino by about 0.9 compared to traditional (1.8 v. 2.7). BOM has 2.3 v. 2.8 and the cyclonicwx site has 2.2 v. 2.6. I dont think this means much to the weather or the climate generally but could make a difference when it comes to records and such. Its probably something to do with sst data set differences and perhaps some differences on how it adjusts for the 50 year variance. I think it's significant in the absolute sense in that a scenario where the ONI is higher is indicative of a different Pacific landscape than if the RONI were higher, however, I agree regarding the data source variation....it's likely just data set differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's interesting that recent 2ndary seasonal peaks in the tropical temperature means are now as high as the primaries were just 15 years ago... and this one appears poised to go ridic I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 23 Share Posted August 23 I finally got the IRI links to work: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 23 Author Share Posted August 23 ^IRI mean near +1.0c for AMJ is pretty interesting The average El Nino >+0.5 ONI for the first AMJ averaged out to be +0.18 the following AMJ (16 analogs). (This last AMJ was +0.9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 This is why the pattern in the mid latitudes hasn't been more redolent of El Nino this summer. El Niño in the tropics, of course: Mid latitudes, not so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: I finally got the IRI links to work: I haven't been having an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is why the pattern in the mid latitudes hasn't been more redolent of El Nino this summer. El Niño in the tropics, of course: Mid latitudes, not so much. Mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, that is. It is coupling fine in the southern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 2 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, that is. It is coupling fine in the southern hemisphere. Right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 8 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said: Mid latitudes in the northern hemisphere, that is. It is coupling fine in the southern hemisphere. Yup, and I do think it will get more redolent of El Niño in the mid latitudes throughout the n hemisphere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Early work on the Extra tropical Pacific is done. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/08/preliminary-assessment-of-extratropical.html 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Pretty good consensus between my composites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder if this has to do with climate change? That is, if the climate were actually changing.... It’s more than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It’s more than that I'm just being a d1ck. What other factors do you feel are influencing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 @Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup, and I do think it will get more redolent of El Niño in the mid latitudes throughout the n hemisphere. Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 24 Author Share Posted August 24 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @Stormchaserchuck1I understand how the low the heights are in the N Pacific and into the SE CONUS on that comppsite...this is just preliminary. I'll probably make an adjustment to the final composite to address that, especially if El Niño continues to struggle to couple throughout the mid latitudes of the N Hem well into the fall...like subtracting a very early climo period rather than 1951-2020. PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted August 24 Author Share Posted August 24 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah. Feel the same way. Especially as we get into the SON period. Certainly will be interesting to watch unfold. This is such an impressive chart. In the context of every other el nino event. Minus 10 is bonkers on the VP 200 charts for a 30 day mean of obs. How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall? Significant IMO. Really interesting year with that. I just feel like the magnitude of this event prevails through the autumn. Certainly interesting to see what happens! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: PNA has been negative 6 straight months, and Aug looks to come in around 0.0. I wouldn't assume classic El Nino N. Pacific pattern this Winter. I researched it once and Weak ENSO had 40dm, Mod ENSO 70dm, Strong ENSO 100dm, Super ENSO 120dm. I think we are ~40dm this Winter. I went with a preliminary .35 to .65 for DJFM mean PNA, and -.02 to .27 PDO. I feel comfortable with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 You can never get a 500mb forecast composite to look perfect, though....especially considering CC because you have to use analog years to construct them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted August 24 Share Posted August 24 I'm not sure if anyone pointed this out yet, but we're experiencing a very rapid upwelling of cold water in the western Pacific Ocean, which is literally pushing the warm Kelvin wave onto the South American continent. As a result, the warm water in the east is sinking deeper. This is why we are in for a strong la nina in 2027-28 or 2028-29 (depending on how quickly the current el nino dissipates) - like in 1998-2000, which immediately followed the 1997-98 el nino. As you can see, the strong la nina years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (which correspond to the dark blue strips in 1998 and 1999) was the result of the last upwelling. Also, our last strong la nina was in 2010-11 (which corresponds to the dark blue strip in 2010). If we don't have a strong la nina following this el nino event, it will be the longest gap between strong la ninas since prior to the 1955-56 event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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