2026-2027 El Nino

[bluewave]

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter.

The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America.

But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter.

If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists of 3 multiyear periods since 1981.
 

2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 

2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites 

 

 

Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters 

 

 

 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter.

The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America.

But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter.

If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast.

This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists 3 multiyear periods since 1981.
 

2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 

2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites 

 

 

Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters 

 

 

 

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

It’s interesting how we got a much warmer and less snowy version of 2013-2014 and the 2014-2015 the last two winters.

This is what I was getting at in my discussions over the last few years. The cold pool and polar vortex over North America was much smaller during the last few winters with a more expansive and stronger 500 mb ridge.

So Boston couldn’t challenge their snowiest winter in 2014-2015 with the February 2015 cold and the Great Lakes couldn’t approach 2013-2014 record snow and cold.

The last few winters were a warmer and less snowy reflection due to the big global temperature jump which occurred with the 2015-2016 super El Niño. 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Eric Webb touched on this back in November. He said we were exactly following the previous winter precursor patterns that culminated in the super El Niño’s of 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 

 It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

[snowman19]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 It may end up super-strong. But Eric likes to make bold calls and thus has had his share of bad busts before. So, we’ll see. Keep in mind the Euro’s warm bias in predicting ENSO as well as the fact that RONI is currently 0.5C cooler than ONI, which is what most of the model charts are showing.

It’s all hypothetical speculation at this point. Long, long way to go before we can say with any confidence if this is going to be a super El Niño event or not. Then, if (IF) it does in fact become a super event….is it east-based (82-83, 97-98)? Or basin-wide (15-16)? Paul Roundy is extremely confident that this El Niño at least STARTS as an east-based event regardless of strength, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess right now…..

[Wannabehippie]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s all hypothetical speculation at this point. Long, long way to go before we can say with any confidence if this is going to be a super El Niño event or not. Then, if (IF) it does in fact become a super event….is it east-based (82-83, 97-98)? Or basin-wide (15-16)? Paul Roundy is extremely confident that this El Niño at least STARTS as an east-based event regardless of strength, where it goes from there is anyone’s guess right now…..

If it is a super El Nino, could it just be a basin wide event? What does history show us with super El Ninos?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

If it is a super El Nino, could it just be a basin wide event? What does history show us with super El Ninos?

They usually develop further east in Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, because on average there is cooler water there. If the whole area is neutralizing (average state is trade winds and colder SSTs along the equator), then the biggest difference is further east. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI remains very positive for a developing Stronger El Nino

13 Mar 2026	1013.78	1004.20	26.18	15.03	10.39
12 Mar 2026	1012.94	1003.80	24.08	14.12	10.15
11 Mar 2026	1012.23	1003.95	19.96	13.50	9.83
10 Mar 2026	1012.41	1004.15	19.86	12.99	9.54
9 Mar 2026	1013.31	1004.00	24.89	12.33	9.38
8 Mar 2026	1013.00	1003.05	27.95	11.43	9.31
7 Mar 2026	1012.90	1002.50	30.11	10.84	9.13
6 Mar 2026	1012.74	1003.30	25.51	10.77	8.71
5 Mar 2026	1010.85	1003.90	13.59	10.96	8.17
4 Mar 2026	1011.34	1003.15	19.53	11.31	7.65
3 Mar 2026	1010.85	1002.70	19.34	11.46	6.95
2 Mar 2026	1010.44	1002.95	16.18	11.70	6.42
1 Mar 2026	1011.79	1003.40	20.49	11.80	6.11
28 Feb 2026	1011.80	1003.50	17.10	11.49	5.74

 

Lots of month to go, but March is currently on pace to be the Most +SOI month since before the 23-24 Strong Nino. 

Later-in-the-year Strong Nino March's:

2023: -1.78

2015: -10.7

1997: -7

1991: -10.1

1982: +0.7

1972: +1.2

1965: +2.1

^since 1950

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC increased El Nino chances by 15%

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion