2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

So your analog is showing a huge aleutian low with a ridge over the rockies (again). How does it look over the polar domain though? If we get a -WPO/-EPO or -NAO along with that aleutian low, we just might avoid a wall to wall torch. If we get a well-timed STJ wave with cold air lurking nearby, we could score and big.

The general tendency is -H5 near the Poles, with +H5 in the mid-latitudes, but it's a pretty weak correlation (0.10-0.15) that far out. I've run several individual cities record breaking warm patterns out at different times, and that's what the constant theme is (warm mid-latitudes, -h5 near the Pole +several months time).