2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here comes the warmer subsurface (20c Isotherm Depth), leading the surface by several months, like usual

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. 

Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino?

No. 

[Terpeast]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. 

Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino?

No. 

Why would it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Why would it?

I've read things linking the two. 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've read things linking the two. 

I have a hard time envisioning the physics that link a SSW to a subsequent el nino (or la nina). I imagine the top-down effects would be confined mainly to the polar domain or mid latitudes, but not tropics. Conversely, enso is driven mainly by tropical ocean-atmosphere (KWs and WWBs mostly) and then those forcing effects propagate to mid- and polar-latitudes via rossby waves, and then bottom-up into the stratosphere. But the other way around? I dunno. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here we go.. Gawx posted this in the other thread. CFS AAM projection:

The Winter kind of lags previous years ENSO state up until March, but in April New ENSO pattern has greatest N. Pacific correlation (-NOI/-NPH). Notice minor North Pacific difference in March, but major differences in April

[mitchnick]

Don't know where to put this, but here it is.

New Cansips pretty sweet for next year. This is a link to December, 2026. Scrolling thru to February shows lots of blocking.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to SSTA map starting December. Looks solid moderate Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to surface temps starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to precip starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Don't know where to put this, but here it is.

New Cansips pretty sweet for next year. This is a link to December, 2026. Scrolling thru to February shows lots of blocking.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to SSTA map starting December. Looks solid moderate Niño. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to surface temps starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Here's a link to precip starting December. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=eus&pkg=apcpna_month&runtime=2026030100&fh=9

Thanks, Mitch. This thread is the perfect place.

 Although we have to take this new CANSIPS run with a huge grain as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

-next winter’s E US cold potential

 Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026:

Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:

 

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Mitch. This thread is the perfect place.

 Although we have to take this new CANSIPS run with a huge grain as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective for two reasons:

-decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026

-next winter’s E US cold potential

 Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026:

Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run:

 

One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

I’d say that Jan 26 forecast verified well overall, except it was too warm for the SE. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I wonder if CANSIPS has consistency bias? I know I think @GaWx was showing how they had SSTA anomalies for the same month year after year. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Analog research comparisons.... 30 analogs

Base period:

Analogs (Top 30)

Following March of 30 analogs

Following Apr-May.. maybe a strong severe wx season

Following Summer (June-August)

Following Sept-Nov:

It doesn't show my analogs clearly, so here they are:

[chubbs]

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, chubbs said:

 

Thanks, Charlie. Don’t forget to consider a “relative” RONIlike adjustment downward. That could be ~-0.3C.

[jaxjagman]

The MJO seemingly is gonna be stuck into the WP which could be for much of March from the Rossby Wave Train,this should help NINA stay alive for the next few weeks anyways

 

 

[GaWx]

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event. Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now.
 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638?

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[roardog]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event. Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now.
 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638?

A strong Nino 3 years after a borderline super Nino during a -PDO regime seems almost unprecedented. I would think a switch to +PDO would have to happen this year if we get a strong Nino.

[A-L-E-K]

time 2 torch

[roardog]

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

time 2 torch

Developing Nino could mean cooler and wetter summer here in the midwest. That wouldn't be a bad thing with as dry as it has been. 

[A-L-E-K]

maybe but i'm talking about planet earth

[roardog]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

maybe but i'm talking about planet earth

I figured you were talking about next winter to get everyone riled up. lol

[so_whats_happening]

For reference this was the hovmollers 850mb u wind anomaly look leading into the 23-24 Nino event. If we do indeed get the westerlies over that warm pool around the dateline we should start to push the ocean to Warm neutral territory. Ill wait to see if the AAM does want to switch things up going forward strength of the event is still in question but it should be safe to say we get to at least warm if not weak Nino status by summer. I would like to see some actual propagation of the anomalies and not have them just sit west of the dateline like we have seen the last 2 months.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Thank you donsutherland for Phoenix, AZ statistics.. this was their warmest Winter on record by a lot. The difference between 1 and 2 is almost the same as 2 and 20. 

Climate analog point - the pattern that follows April-June of the analogs is below, notice the -H5 up north and -PNA in the Pacific. I've seen this when DC hits a record Winter high temperature or some other US city, the Polar area gets negative anomaly, and there is more ridging at the mid-latitudes +months forward:

April US Temps (+2-4 months, some progression east)

[mitchnick]

20 hours ago, GaWx said:

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event. Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now.
 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638?

Nobody and no model can accurately predict the strength of Niños or Niñas  the first week of March for the following winter. Anything to try to be the first and for clicks.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Nobody and no model can accurately predict the strength of Niños or Niñas  the first week of March for the following winter. Anything to try to be the first and for clicks.

1. I agree that neither Eric nor anyone can possibly know at this very early stage how strong El Niño will be. It’s not that predictable and some models like the Euro have had a warm bias even all the way through summer progs. It could very well end up strong or even super-strong, but it could also end up weaker just because we and models don’t know.

2. I feel like RONI would be a more telling index to predict than ONI. RONI has recently been ~0.4C cooler. Eric may not be explicitly taking that into account. When all is said and done, there’s <100% chance (although not a whole bunch less as of now) we’ll actually have El Niño per RONI. It would be hilarious if we don’t considering this thread’s name has El Niño in it. 

3. There have been some strong to super ones that were cool to cold in most of the E US lower Mid-Atlantic southward: 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8. And 1911-2 was cold everywhere despite peaking at +1.4. So, even if it’s strong, don’t expect a mild winter like 2015-6 in the SE and possibly not mild also in the Mid-Atlantic. And then consider that even up at Boston that although they’ve yet on record to have a cold strong+ Nino, it could end up NN as per 1896-7, 1902-3, 1925-6, 1930-1, 1940-1, 1957-8, 1965-6, and 2009-10. That’s almost half of the 18 strong+ Ninos back to 1877-8. And 1972-3 and 1991-2 were only slightly AN vs their respective climo in Boston. A torch covering the entire E US has occurred only once, 2015-6, as 2023-4 was NN in much of the SE.