2026-2027 El Nino

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here comes the warmer subsurface (20c Isotherm Depth), leading the surface by several months, like usual

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. 

Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino?

No. 

[Terpeast]

13 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Significant Stratosphere Warming event to occur in early March. 

Does a March SSW precede a later-in-the-year El Nino?

No. 

Why would it?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Why would it?

I've read things linking the two. 

[Terpeast]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've read things linking the two. 

I have a hard time envisioning the physics that link a SSW to a subsequent el nino (or la nina). I imagine the top-down effects would be confined mainly to the polar domain or mid latitudes, but not tropics. Conversely, enso is driven mainly by tropical ocean-atmosphere (KWs and WWBs mostly) and then those forcing effects propagate to mid- and polar-latitudes via rossby waves, and then bottom-up into the stratosphere. But the other way around? I dunno. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.