Feb 10-11 Mid Week Minor Event - Ride the hot hand?

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro was the correct model with pushing the core of the last arctic shot to our west. 

What does that have to do with this?

[dendrite]

But yeah…usually being south of the low in the “warm” sector doesn’t pan out well, but there’s been a couple of these now that have been able to buck the trend with some moisture advection with the southerly flow while staying cold enough to snow ahead of the cold fropa.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What does that have to do with this?

Go to bed

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Go to bed

Lashing out for what reason though?

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro was bad with the Jan 25th system, last to the party on the Feb 1st whiff, and unable to depict the Essex county invt trough on 2/7. That's a lot to be wrong about in a short amount of time..locally

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Euro was bad with the Jan 25th system, last to the party on the Feb 1st whiff, and unable to depict the Essex county invt trough on 2/7. That's a lot to be wrong about in a short amount of time..locally

Yup. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It was more a response to Wolfie’s 50th glue factory post since the start of the year.

Scott too…so go tell hime that too. The thing blows. Keep humping it though. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Scott too…so go tell hime that too. The thing blows. Keep humping it though. 

Cold run…tenor

Warm run…glue

[SouthCoastMA]

It will probably nail a future cutter though

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cold run…tenor

Warm run…glue

Absolutely not. We all know the tenor. So the implication is not even close to true. Where was the warm run?   I don’t have anymore respect for that model…it’s(The Op) slowly but surely becoming more atrocious.   If it(the Op) shows cold…or warm whatever.   EPS is still good, but that’s a different story. 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely not. We all know the tenor. So the implication is not even close to true. Where was the warm run?   I don’t have anymore respect for that model…it’s(The Op) slowly but surely becoming more atrocious.   If it(the Op) shows cold…or warm whatever.   EPS is still good, but that’s a different story. 

I feel the 18z is the most accurate.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Absolutely not. We all know the tenor. So the implication is not even close to true. Where was the warm run?   I don’t have anymore respect for that model…it’s(The Op) slowly but surely becoming more atrocious.   If it(the Op) shows cold…or warm whatever.   EPS is still good, but that’s a different story. 

[dendrite]

Anyway I’m just busting you in the dead zone. 
 

Let’s juice this system up more at 00z

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Anyway I’m just busting you in the dead zone. 
 

Let’s juice this system up more at 00z

Time for an IP ban.

(kidding! i noticed that IP drop down you have)

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

All that meant was that it was going with the flow..which has been cold.  I didn’t say it was right. I said it’s following the tenor. The model isn’t impressive. I didn’t hump it when it showed the blizzard the other day for next Sunday. It’s just another model. Period. 

[Kitz Craver]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Cold run…tenor

Warm run…glue

Lol, loud.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Anyway I’m just busting you in the dead zone. 
 

Let’s juice this system up more at 00z

Yes..hope so. I’d like to pick up a couple more  inches.  Let’s pad the stats.  Closing in on climo. 

[mahk_webstah]

Refresh the refresher

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Refresh the refresher

I had birch seeds blow onto my fresh snow…need to cover that up.

[Kitz Craver]

All joking aside, the nearly constant cold, snowpack and overall tenor, I’m close to an A grade at my location as it stands.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It was more a response to Wolfie’s 50th glue factory post since the start of the year.

Yeah it is still the best model. But as we’ve said so many times, it isn’t just the utterly dominant force relative to other guidance that it was in the 2000s/2010s. The gap has been closed some. 
 

The way you know deep down it’s still the best is that every single person here if they had to pick a model to be on an island showing the solution they want, they’d still pick the euro. 
 

Nobody is picking any other global model to be on an island in the medium range.

[dendrite]

HRRR is almost a half inch of liquid here.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

All joking aside, the nearly constant cold, snowpack and overall tenor, I’m close to an A grade at my location as it stands.

I agree. If we can pick up a few more systems over the next 5-6 weeks that can produce…it’ll be a great one for me too. I said the other day that I’m feeling upper B+right now.  

[Damage In Tolland]

Is turning into a WSW?

[dendrite]

I still think this is a little precarious of a setup south of the Pike, but we’ll see how it goes. The leading edge WAA precip is a little too far north and then you’re relying on the mid level cold front delivering…there’s a little low level dry air to start too.

It may end up like a wild 1-2 hour line of snow with mixed graupel initially. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is still the best model. But as we’ve said so many times, it isn’t just the utterly dominant force relative to other guidance that it was in the 2000s/2010s. The gap has been closed some. 
 

The way you know deep down it’s still the best is that every single person here if they had to pick a model to be on an island showing the solution they want, they’d still pick the euro. 
 

Nobody is picking any other global model to be on an island in the medium range.

Ehhh…wasn’t it the only one showing the Feb 1st storm after everything else jumped ship? It was on an island by itself, and then caved in.  In its hay day for sure. Not anymore unfortunately.  When it’s alone now, it seems to cave more often than not. But oh well. 

[CoastalWx]

00z hrrr juiced up a tad. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

HRRR is almost a half inch of liquid here.

 

HRRR did absolutely fantastic in my hood last storm. Yea you should be good for wsw level snow 

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is turning into a WSW?

Where... For north of Ct? 

[Damage In Tolland]

2-4