Winter Storm Threat *Technical* Discussion. No Op Run PBP or Snow maps

[CAPE]

Lets discuss upcoming potential storm threats. No pissing and moaning, emotional pendulums, and no snow maps until guidance converges on a clear, specific storm threat within 7 days. 

Hopefully mods won't mind moving noncompliant posts to the appropriate threads.

@psuhoffman @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx @brooklynwx99

[CAPE]

Favorable upper levels and surface leading into the next weekend potential. Need to keep an eye on wave spacing, any minor wave(s) moving east in the flow midweek vs the bulk of the energy being ejected from the southwest later, and the strength/ position of NS energy near the 50-50 region.

Good surface and upper level depiction leading into a potential winter storm-

[Terpeast]

Good call. I’ll start. Focusing on 0z EPS.

Next window of interest, s/w running into confluence thanks to 50/50 low:

Keeping cold air in place:

While area of low pressure stays to the south of us:

And precip distribution looks good:

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Good call. I’ll start. Focusing on 0z EPS.

Next window of interest, s/w running into confluence thanks to 50/50 low:

Keeping cold air in place:

While area of low pressure stays to the south of us:

And precip distribution looks good:

Yes. I hit on some of that in my intro post. As you said, that 50-50 low is vital for this to work out, but we don't want it displaced too far south as has been depicted on some recent op runs. Weakens/suppresses the shortwave southward without enough space.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Yes. I hit on some of that in my intro post. As you said, that 50-50 low is vital for this to work out, but we don't want it displaced too far south as has been depicted on some recent op runs. Weakens/suppresses the shortwave southward without enough space.

I think that scenario is less likely based on ensembles, they don’t really support the suppressed scenario. Agree timing is vital, 6z Euro AI ensembles show something similar to 0z EPS with undercutting energy under the block but ridge bridging happens immediately after passing us. 

[CAPE]

Good look on the 12z GEFS leading into the potential weekend storm. Energy in the 50-50 region is in a good spot with surface HP underneath in the convergence/confluence zone.

Energy is ejecting from the southwest with surface low development. 

[bncho]

Getting a sense of the discussion over the last few days, isn't this setup a lot about timing (as is with lots of our other setups)? Correct me if I'm wrong, but we need the wave to a delay a little bit so it doesn't get strung out/suppressed, and we can't have it delay too much or else it turns into a cutter, right? It feels like we need to balance lots of these factors out.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Getting a sense of the discussion over the last few days, isn't this setup a lot about timing (as is with lots of our other setups)? Correct me if I'm wrong, but we need the wave to a delay a little bit so it doesn't get strung out/suppressed, and we can't have it delay too much or else it turns into a cutter, right? It feels like we need to balance lots of these factors out.

Pretty good synopsis.

[CAPE]

Gonna be a cutter on the 12z ens mean. Was more of a Miller B at 6z.

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gonna be a cutter on the 12z ens mean. Was more of a Miller B at 6z.

you mean EPS? Or GEFS?

[Terpeast]

Just now, Terpeast said:

you mean EPS? Or GEFS?

Just looked at gefs, and you’re right on that one. But 12z EPS doesn’t cut and is actually better for us than 0z or 6z. Still sticking with the undercutting the block idea, while 12z gefs links up ridging preventing the s/w from undercutting 

[WxUSAF]

29 minutes ago, bncho said:

Getting a sense of the discussion over the last few days, isn't this setup a lot about timing (as is with lots of our other setups)? Correct me if I'm wrong, but we need the wave to a delay a little bit so it doesn't get strung out/suppressed, and we can't have it delay too much or else it turns into a cutter, right? It feels like we need to balance lots of these factors out.

 

27 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Pretty good synopsis.

Yea we need the lead wave to be near enough to generate sufficient confluence to force our potential storm underneath us and keep our airmass intact. With a big -PNA we’re relying on the Atlantic side.

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just looked at gefs, and you’re right on that one. But 12z EPS doesn’t cut and is actually better for us than 0z or 6z. Still sticking with the undercutting the block idea, while 12z gefs links up ridging preventing the s/w from undercutting 

Yeah the GEFS. EPS comes out slow on WB, but the 6z EPS was even better than the GEFS- had a bit of a suppressed look which I will take at this range.

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Yea we need the lead wave to be near enough to generate sufficient confluence to force our potential storm underneath us and keep our airmass intact. With a big -PNA we’re relying on the Atlantic side.

We are relying on the NA, but there isn't really a true block to slow the flow, so timing really is critical with these features.

[CAPE]

12z EPS has the same general idea as the op with this 'frontrunning' midwestern wave Friday into early Sat-

Then here later with energy ejecting from the SW. They don't play well together like the op. That said there is some precip for our area on the mean.

Still a week out and given the likely errors with wave timing at this point, it will evolve/morph into something else.

[Terpeast]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS has the same general idea as the op with this 'frontrunning' midwestern wave Friday into early Sat-

Then here later with energy ejecting from the SW. They don't play well together like the op. That said there is some precip for our area on the mean.

Still a week out and given the likely errors with wave timing at this point, it will evolve/morph into something else.

With that depiction verbatim, I think the first wave will actually work better for us on the 13th. By the time the second one gets here,  cold air might be leaving. Details will change and we will know soon enough which wave the models are really keying on for us. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

With that depiction verbatim, I think the first wave will actually work better for us on the 13th. By the time the second one gets here,  cold air might be leaving. Details will change and we will know soon enough which wave the models are really keying on for us. 

I agree. The cold is very dependent on the NS wave train as vortices in the flow move through the 50-50 region. We don't have a typical NAO Rex block with a quasi-stationary/closed (50-50) low underneath a poleward ridge, so the confluence is fleeting.

[stormtracker]

Is this were we post snow maps?

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Is this were we post snow maps?

What’s the salary requirement for this thread? 

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

What’s the salary requirement for this thread? 

$12,500

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

$12,500

Sweet! DT says talk of a storm next weekend is bs so guess we should stop talking about it lol 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Sweet! DT says talk of a storm next weekend is bs so guess we should stop talking about it lol 

Yeah because he's sooo accurate 

[wasnow215]

52 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Yeah because he's sooo accurate 

He's pretty much been "oppo man" for a couple years. Whenever he says the opposite happens. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

With that depiction verbatim, I think the first wave will actually work better for us on the 13th. By the time the second one gets here,  cold air might be leaving. Details will change and we will know soon enough which wave the models are really keying on for us. 

18z GFS crushes the initial wave as the NS vortex digs too far south and exits, then the unfavorable Pacific takes over. The HP from the initial NS confluence exits stage right with no NA blocking, and the result its a cutter with mostly rain. Just one of many possible outcomes. Only a week to go!

[Ji]

so this thread is cape just talking to cape?

[psuhoffman]

The main moving parts are the ridge over Quebec and 50/50 (strength of both) and the timing and strength of the pacific energy ejecting. EPS and AIFS had the most favorable look 12z of the options imo but it’s all still on the table until guidance settles on those features and as of now they’re bounding around every run. 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

so this thread is cape just talking to cape?

And other rational, smart people who choose to join in. But I'm good talking to myself lol.

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And other rational, smart people who choose to join in. But I'm good talking to myself lol.

But you’re missing Grayhats analysts over in the other thread 

[Terpeast]

Bringing this over here. Better place!

 

[psuhoffman]

18z AIFS was our win scenario. 

all ens guidance now shows this at day 5.  This general idea seems locked in now  

The decaying nao block X has retrograded to Hudson Bay.  There is a strong 50/50 feature Y from a strong wave that was forced under the retrograding block.  The pacific wave Z is entering the southwest.  The flow in front of it will prevent it from gaining too much latitude so long as it ejects quickly. 
 

Yes the pacific has gone to absolute shit.  But because the antecedent pattern was good we have a window of opportunity here.  
 

We want a healthy wave to eject and as quickly as possible imo. The 18z AIFS did this. The 18z EPS looked like it was also but doesn’t go out far enough. But I’ll take this…

the gfs products are washing more of the wave out and absorbing most of it into the approaching north pacific trough.  This means a weaker delayed wave.  that’s a loss  

BTW a “Hudson High” regime actually used to be a cheat code to a snowstorm here absent other features we typically look for  PNA, NAO… historically I found numerous Baltimore snowstorms where a high there seemed to be the main feature and it snowed despite flaws elsewhere.  But I’ve noted those have gone extinct recently and that some recent examples ended up slightly too warm and “perfect track rainstorms”  A recent example was a storm around the Super Bowl in 2023 I think.  This will be a good test to see if this can still work!  Assuming a wave ejects.