40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, I'm not a big fan of cute handling, in general. Not until quantum computing takes over ha. These larger smoothing techniques are as important in the total deterministic effort - or should be. I don't like the fact that the 00z doesn't phase that small intermediate stream S/W. It just had more power in the S stream, and by virtue of that...it got closer - but still short of getting it done. Then the 06z arrives. Technically, it's not even a phase. The southern aspect is pealing away S ...not that dissimilar to the GFS. It's just that it's taking that intermediate wave the GFS doens't curve in, and abruptly stemwinding that feature. It's enough of a continuity break in total handling to pause. @Damage In TollandAlways breaks my balls about this, but my preseason work governs a lot of my medium and longer range thought processes because it's that foundational, seasonal stuff that dictates much of this. I have always been on the RNA train for February and December, as I was +PNA for January. That portion of my work was very high confidence, so I am always going to err on the RNA ride of things as it pertains to any medium range conflict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Clouds FTW today #Protectthepack What clouds? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Oh I see some to the NW now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 A Steely grey sky here. I agree with Kevin. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 ICON won't get you there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Spring like today. It’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @Damage In TollandAlways breaks my balls about this, but my preseason work governs a lot of my medium and longer range thought processes because it's that foundational, seasonal stuff that dictates much of this. I have always been on the RNA train for February and December, as I was +PNA for January. That portion of my work was very high confidence, so I am always going to err on the RNA ride of things as it pertains to any medium range conflict. Not a bad approach. It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful: can't paint without a canvas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Not a bad approach. It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful: can't paint without a canvas Very apt-nailed it. It really helps to maintain a somewhat more grounded approach throughout the periods of modeling chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 11 Author Share Posted February 11 Anything can be done with a black sharpie. It is time for Scott to create a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Downslope dandy today....might tickle 40. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 ICON is a whiff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: ICON is a whiff ICANT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 GFS skynet still way SE...not particularly close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ICANT IWONT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What clouds? Better check viz. cloudy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: IWONT I weight the ICON a bit more heavily than I normally would this suite because I feel like if/when there is cross guidance commitment, it will be essentially unanimous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 My guess is nothing else caves and the EURO may very well begin capitulation here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Downslope dandy today....might tickle 40. It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe? anyway, I'd like to see less clouds. Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things. haven't seen satellite ..okay, looks like sun destructive pancake advanced in. maybe it cycles out...we'll see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My guess is nothing else caves and the EURO may very well begin capitulation here. I’d bet Euro and EPS continue to improve and lock in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe? anyway, I'd like to see less clouds. Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things. haven't seen satellite It’s sunny and awesome out here. At this point if Monday doesn’t materialize, you start getting the itch for other non winter shit. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’d bet Euro and EPS continue to improve and lock in I hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs AI actually went a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope you are right. It’s going to be glue factory. It’s fallen on its face plenty when it’s an outlier. Tossed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Buy all the adhesive stock you can. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Gfs laughing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Haven’t had a glimpse of sun yet today. Spitting flakes for most of the morning while I cleared snow. 31° OVC and the piles are huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I hope you are right. I’ve just had a gut feeling about this . I don’t think it’ll be a huge one for us, but a moderate to possibly high end moderate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s sunny and awesome out here. At this point if Monday doesn’t materialize, you start getting the itch for other non winter shit. I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history ... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass: on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports. While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm. Priceless. The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining LOL 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history ... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass: on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports. While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm. Priceless. The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining LOL Don’t ever stop conveying visions with words. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history ... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass: on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports. While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm. Priceless. The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining LOL Chicks dig climate change..keep that in mind when the napes come out to play at the park. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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