Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of cute handling, in general.  Not until quantum computing takes over ha. 

These larger smoothing techniques are as important in the total deterministic effort - or should be. 

I don't like the fact that the 00z doesn't phase that small intermediate stream S/W.  It just had more power in the S stream, and by virtue of that...it got closer - but still short of getting it done. 

Then the 06z arrives.  Technically, it's not even a phase. The southern aspect is pealing away S ...not that dissimilar to the GFS.  It's just that it's taking that intermediate wave the GFS doens't curve in, and abruptly stemwinding  that feature. 

It's enough of a continuity break in total handling to pause.

@Damage In TollandAlways breaks my balls about this, but my preseason work governs a lot of my medium and longer range thought processes because it's that foundational, seasonal stuff that dictates much of this. I have always been on the RNA train for February and December, as I was +PNA for January. That portion of my work was very high confidence, so I am always going to err on the RNA ride of things as it pertains to any medium range conflict.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Clouds FTW today 

#Protectthepack 

What clouds?

[CoastalWx]

Oh I see some to the NW now.

[mahk_webstah]

A Steely grey sky here.  I agree with Kevin.

[SouthCoastMA]

ICON won't get you there 

[CoastalWx]

Spring like today. It’s coming. 

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Damage In TollandAlways breaks my balls about this, but my preseason work governs a lot of my medium and longer range thought processes because it's that foundational, seasonal stuff that dictates much of this. I have always been on the RNA train for February and December, as I was +PNA for January. That portion of my work was very high confidence, so I am always going to err on the RNA ride of things as it pertains to any medium range conflict.

Not a bad approach.    

It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful:  can't paint without a canvas

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Not a bad approach.    

It's probably a very easy metaphor but is still useful:  can't paint without a canvas

Very apt-nailed it. It really helps to maintain a somewhat more grounded approach throughout the periods of modeling chaos.

[mahk_webstah]

Anything can be done with a black sharpie. It is time for Scott to create a snowstorm.

[ORH_wxman]

Downslope dandy today....might tickle 40. 

[Kitz Craver]

ICON is a whiff

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

ICON is a whiff

ICANT

[ORH_wxman]

GFS skynet still way SE...not particularly close. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ICANT

IWONT

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What clouds?

Better check viz. cloudy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

IWONT

I weight the ICON a bit more heavily than I normally would this suite because I feel like if/when there is cross guidance commitment, it will be essentially unanimous. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My guess is nothing else caves and the EURO may very well begin capitulation here.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Downslope dandy today....might tickle 40. 

It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe?   anyway, I'd like to see less clouds.  Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things.   haven't seen satellite ..okay, looks like sun destructive pancake advanced in.  

maybe it cycles out...we'll see

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My guess is nothing else caves and the EURO may very well begin capitulation here.

I’d bet Euro and EPS continue to improve and lock in 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's 38 ... warmest it's been since ...Jan 22 maybe?   anyway, I'd like to see less clouds.  Brilliant sun suddenly no sun will cap things.   haven't seen satellite

 

It’s sunny and awesome out here. At this point if Monday doesn’t materialize, you start getting the itch for other non winter shit. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d bet Euro and EPS continue to improve and lock in 

I hope you are right.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs AI actually went a tick south. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope you are right.

It’s going to be glue factory. It’s fallen on its face plenty when it’s an outlier. Tossed 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Buy all the adhesive stock you can.

[CoastalWx]

Gfs laughing too. 

[dendrite]

Haven’t had a glimpse of sun yet today. Spitting flakes for most of the morning while I cleared snow.

31° OVC and the piles are huge

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I hope you are right.

I’ve just had a gut feeling about this . I don’t think it’ll be a huge one for us, but a moderate to possibly high end moderate 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s sunny and awesome out here. At this point if Monday doesn’t materialize, you start getting the itch for other non winter shit. 

I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history

... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass:  on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports.   While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm.  Priceless.   The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining    LOL

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history

... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass:  on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports.   While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm.  Priceless.   The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining    LOL

Don’t ever stop conveying visions with words. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've mastered the ability as I've aged, to compartmentalize druthers aside from the objective ( or attempts at being so...) analytic stuff. I can to a very close tolerance, be as realistic about a blue bomb or blizzard or whatever at this time of year moving forward, while at the same time ... admitting that I'd rather it be 80 F and the earliest spring/warm season in history

... And the upshot of the latter dream is that it's two-pronged rewarding - should it ever come to pass:  on one hand, masturbatory beautiful days to get out and bike ride... disc golf ..regular golf ... woman with less clothing.. you know, all the recreation sports.   While on the other hand, watching denialism squirm.  Priceless.   The ear song explanations as to why it's something they have actually zero education for formulating an excuse for is just deliciously entertaining    LOL

Chicks dig climate change..keep that in mind when the napes come out to play at the park.