Is we back? February discussion thread

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Forget all of this.  What I need, and I'm sure everyone agrees, is for all of you mets and knowledgeable posters to focus on what the weather will be like for my snowmobile trip to western New Brunswick next week.  That's really what everyone wants to know.

We’re/You’re gonna be fine. You in NB, me in Gaspe’ Quebec. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

There used to be a time when it was on an island by itself….it would win that game more often than not.  Sadly, not any more.  You have to be Very skeptical now.  If it caves, it’s another Neil in the glue factory coffin for that model.  If it wins…it’s a notch in its belt. 

It would win back some of my trust since  it threads the needle at h5 to bring this up the coast. Big kudos if it sniffs that out correctly at this lead time. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It would win back some of my trust since  it threads the needle at h5 to bring this up the coast. Big kudos if it sniffs that out correctly at this lead time. 

Agreed.  That would be an old trick it used to perform regularly.  Of late, it can’t seem to do that anymore.  It’ll be interesting to see if it can this go around. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed.  That would be an old trick it used to perform regularly.  Of late, it can’t seem to do that anymore.  It’ll be interesting to see if it can this go around. 

It needs this one. It's been a rough 3 weeks. 

[Kitz Craver]

Interesting skynet is slowly beginning to capitulate to the legacy model with some small bumps NW

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It needs this one. It's been a rough 3 weeks. 

100% agree pal. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

For shits and giggles the 12 and 18" odds on eps and aifs ens are relatively high for 5 days out like 10-20% so there are some really big hitters .. hopefully the threat continues for 12z.. 

[WinterWolf]

Is this for Monday into Tuesday if it comes? 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this for Monday into Tuesday if it comes? 

Sunday into Monday

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is this for Monday into Tuesday if it comes? 

They always speed up 

[40/70 Benchmark]

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Skynet Ens

e29 FTW

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

e29 FTW

wow 10 members 20"+ at 10:1

[weatherwiz]

Stranger things have happened and it seems like a long shot but we'll need an awful lot to work in our favor. That was definitely a weird evolution on the 0z euro as dendrite mentioned. Still have today and even tomorrow we really sort this out though we'd probably want to see big jumps on all guidance today.

[SouthCoastMA]

Euro doing a lot of sniffin lately. Hopefully this time it's the OG stuff from the early/mid 2010s. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Stranger things have happened and it seems like a long shot but we'll need an awful lot to work in our favor. That was definitely a weird evolution on the 0z euro as dendrite mentioned. Still have today and even tomorrow we really sort this out though we'd probably want to see big jumps on all guidance today.

Yea, today we should find out of this is real. If it goes well, I'll probably have a threat assessment tomorrow and a First call on Friday.

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Euro doing a lot of sniffin lately. Hopefully this time it's the OG stuff from the early/mid 2010s. 

Hopefully it’s not bath salts…

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

wow 10 members 20"+ at 10:1

I count 9....

[Prismshine Productions]

I count 9....

Yeah I do too

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, today we should find out of this is real. If it goes well, I'll probably have a threat assessment tomorrow and a First call on Friday.

Whatever happens though, this period has been well discussed since really the beginning of the month. Obviously it's going to suck big time if this doesn't pan out but it goes to show that 

1) Periods of potential can be sniffed out beyond 10 days 

2) How the pieces move and evolve ultimately play a significant role in the outcome 

[dryslot]

Dendrite stole my avatar.

[40/70 Benchmark]

06z Left, 00z Right

[40/70 Benchmark]

Obviously 06z is closer, but you can also see we're losing the high to the north.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro Sky net (Left) Matches EPS (Right) pretty well. Def tighter clustering on Skynet and more spread on EPS.

[SouthCoastMA]

I think Dendite mentioned this earlier. 6z Euro has that northern stream vortex basically slide due east through central Quebec, whereas 0z had it about 500 miles further SE diving through Eastern Maine. That was a huge difference, though a lot of the models are all over the place with that feature. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

wow 10 members 20"+ at 10:1

20% chance…well, I’m all in then.

[Typhoon Tip]

Index method says pump breaks, but we'll see.

Anomalies relative to indexes can happen. It's rarer but, if the relay off the Pacific is more powerful ... that can offsets the plummeting PNA.  That's about the only way; because  otherwise the falling PNA means rising anti-cyclonic forcing. So if your trying to mechanize a cyclone in the midst of raising anti-cyclonic means... that both intuitively, and geo-physically/mathematically is going to introduce some challenges.

The GEFs/GFS is physically subsuming the ejected wave space with an overwhelming -d(PNA) - in keeping with the above concept. 

The EPS/Euro, does less of that ...  It's also quite a bit stronger/more coherent looking with the relay off the Pacific down near the upper Baja.

It's almost like threading the needle at a pattern scale, not at the wave space... The integration of the ejected wave space with the surrounding medium is very decimal determined - so to speak.  If the surrounding -d(PNA) is overly applied in the GFS even fractionally, that in step is giving something more to the eject wave space and its coherency then means a different fate ..etc.  If it is however more correct, the Euro's full of shit. 

Brian's also right about those idiosyncratic feature handling; they'll play a role. But suspect getting the above ironed out is just as if not more important - more damping (GFS) and it's a moot.  Predicated on the idea that the Euro's more right...that's when all those other headaches kick in

[Typhoon Tip]

so in trying to analayze the behavior of the -PNAP response to the -PNA... it appears the GFS and in fact the GEFs system on whole is assessing a quicker -PNAP response, overall.

The slightly slower Euro system in moving the conus into the -PNAP response, constructs critical curvature in the W.  That subtle lag is tipping/conducting the N stream to dump small S/W space crucially SE through roughly MN is the 06z Euro version.   Flat happy GFS left ... curve happy Euro right

That's the whole ball game... this really subtle variance allows some kind of delicate phasing opportunity in the Euro system. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so in trying to analayze the behavior of the -PNAP response to the -PNA... it appears the GFS and in fact the GEFs system on whole is assessing a quicker -PNAP response, overall.

The slightly slower Euro systemic in moving the conus into the -PNAP response, constructs critically curvature in the W.  That subtle lag is tipping/conducting the N stream to dump small S/W space crucially SE through roughly MN.   Flat happy GFS left ... curve happy Euro right

That's the whole ball game... this really subtle variance allows some kind of delicate phasing opportunity in the Euro system. 

Still side with the GFS here, but may change my mind after 12z.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still side with the GFS here, but may change my mind after 12z.

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of cute handling, in general.  Not until quantum computing takes over ha. 

These larger smoothing techniques are as important in the total deterministic effort - or should be. 

I don't like the fact that the 00z doesn't phase that small intermediate stream S/W.  It just had more power in the S stream, and by virtue of that...it got closer - but still short of getting it done. 

Then the 06z arrives.  Technically, it's not even a phase. The southern aspect is pealing away S ...not that dissimilar to the GFS.  It's just that it's taking that intermediate wave the GFS doens't curve in, and abruptly stemwinding  that feature. 

It's enough of a continuity break in total handling to pause.

[Damage In Tolland]

Clouds FTW today 

#Protectthepack