Is we back? February discussion thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

ill see you tomorrow at 12Z when the rug gets pulled again, im not convinced in the slightest this isn't just another head fake at this range.

Enjoy it now

IF IF IF it is real...that can easily trend north some.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Feeding my newborn and watching the models. He smiled when I showed him the euro.

Yea, hopefully the 00z suite doesn't end up discarded into the diaper genie.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My kind of storm, if we get it.

You’d have issues too. When you need to wetbulb 925 to even get below 0C, that’s an issue.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

See post above 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Long range isn’t that inspiring. 

Who cares if we get 3-5-2001 a bit south  Only you would focus on the 40* days that follow

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You’d have issues too. When you need to wetbulb 925 to even get below 0C, that’s an issue.

Seems like a situation where if you get the goods, dynamics will suffice...just ask Tip

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Who cares if we get 3-5-2001 a bit south  Only you would focus on the 40* days that follow

I’m talking the overall pattern. Don’t really see signs of blocking and trough backs ass up into GOAK which usually means a boring pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s a weird look on the euro with that late diving energy in the northern stream to bring this north. It doesn’t really look like it should have any business digging like that and the other models aren’t doing it either. 

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep. Pancake ridge to the west too. I’ll sell anything good.

Agree, but willing to keep an open mind. I hedged against in my update last night.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I’m talking the overall pattern. Don’t really see signs of blocking and trough backs ass up into GOAK which usually means a boring pattern. 

Yup...second half relaxation like January. I do think we get one more shot in early March minus the brutal cold.

[CoastalWx]

Looking past Monday, we mild up and then I could see an overrunning scenario as some guidance indicates.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Agree, but willing to keep an open mind. I hedged against in my update last night.

It’s not non-zero but I hope people don’t think I’m being negative. Like others, I’m trying to look at it from a met point of view and it just seems very difficult to get something good here. Classic thread a needle. Like has to be just right needle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not non-zero but I hope people don’t think I’m being negative. Like others, I’m trying to look at it from a met point of view and it just seems very difficult to get something good here. Classic thread a needle. Like has to be just right needle.

We are due to catch a break on some sort of phasing TBH, so I wouldn't be shocked in that regard.

Anyway, I feel safe in saying that the monkey if off of my back at 49.5"....at long last, an approach to normal snowfall appears imminent, as forecast last fall.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are due to catch a break on some sort of phasing TBH, so I wouldn't be shocked in that regard.

Anyway, I feel safe in saying that the monkey if off of my back at 49.5"....at long last, an approach to normal snowfall appears imminent, as forecast last fall.

Yeah we climo here now. 

[Great Snow 1717]

45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I'm not making a thread for this...

 

 

...yet

C'mon man...just start the thread! Lol

[Damage In Tolland]

This doesn’t seem like a torch 

[SouthCoastMA]

49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My kind of storm, if we get it.

I'd take a super dynamic storm, as anything less is crap here with that marginal airmass. I'd like to see more NStream involvement at 12z

[SouthCoastMA]

Ideally for me we get a region wide foot, then enjoy a mildup afterwards, before additional chances late month. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Meh. Not happening. Euro on a island never pans out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This doesn’t seem like a torch 

EURO is coldest.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This doesn’t seem like a torch 

Because that’s after the period of milder weather. 

[mreaves]

Forget all of this.  What I need, and I'm sure everyone agrees, is for all of you mets and knowledgeable posters to focus on what the weather will be like for my snowmobile trip to western New Brunswick next week.  That's really what everyone wants to know.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Because that’s after the period of milder weather. 

Right, but Euro doesn't warm as much as other guidance, which I disagree with. I don't think blocking will linger as much as it indicates for several reasons I wrote about.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, but Euro doesn't warm as much as other guidance, which I disagree with. I don't think blocking will linger as much as it indicates for several reasons I wrote about.

We will warm later in Feb. agree 

[Ginx snewx]

Skynet Ens

[40/70 Benchmark]

EPS is leaning west....seems skewed east by a few members.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh. Not happening. Euro on a island never pans out.

Cmc agrees

Weathernet

Euro AI ensembles 

Eps

Icon to a degree

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc agrees

Weathernet

Euro AI ensembles 

Eps

Icon to a degree

Cmc is a whiff

icon is a big rainer

wtf is weathernet?

So that leaves the euro suite on an epstein island…danger ahead. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Cmc is a whiff

icon is a big rainer

wtf is weathernet?

So that leaves the euro suite on an epstein island…danger ahead. 

AI Euro keeps bumping north . You dont see the trend ?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, MJO812 said:

AI Euro keeps bumping north . You dont see the trend ?

I do but h5 doesn’t give me weenie feelings. Buyer beware…

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh. Not happening. Euro on an island never pans out.

There used to be a time when it was on an island by itself….it would win that game more often than not.  Sadly, not any more.  You have to be Very skeptical now.  If it caves, it’s another Neil in the glue factory coffin for that model.  If it wins…it’s a notch in its belt.