Is we back? February discussion thread

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Feb 1st. Clock is officially ticking on winter.

Yeah did you notice the sun today? Wicked high. I'd be surprised if snow even sticks on the road anymore.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We had a 2 foot plus snow  storm and now they bust my balls because I said buckle up. Shit half these mofos think we are NNE and have no clue what climo is. Trolls gonna troll I guess because they sure as hell whine like 6 year olds over frozen water. Paybacks a bitch 

Agree Steve.  Looking pretty decent going forward…we’ll have quite a few chances this second half.  Not every one will hit. Or will be good for everybody, but we’ll have opportunities. All you can ask for.  No complaints here so far.  

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree Steve.  Looking pretty decent going forward…we’ll have quite a few chances this second half.  Not every one will hit. Or will be good for everybody, but we’ll have opportunities. All you can ask for.  No complaints here so far.  

Neighbors kids made good out of the driveway piles.

[CoastalWx]

Euro is a Mark MoreGarbage back broken to winter. 

[ORH_wxman]

We get a transient AK/Bering vortex but we also have a -NAO. Normally we’d prob torch for several days, but we’ll see if NAO block mutes that. We do get another -WPO reload…pattern looks pretty active though after next weekend so I think we’ll have chances. Hopefully we can score a good event during the relaxation period and not have it cut. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a Mark MoreGarbage back broken to winter. 

Op run…I Don’t buy it at all…the tenor will win out like it has all season. Hang tough. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We get a transient AK/Bering vortex but we also have a -NAO. Normally we’d prob torch for several days, but we’ll see if NAO block mutes that. We do get another -WPO reload…pattern looks pretty active though after next weekend so I think we’ll have chances. Hopefully we can score a good event during the relaxation period and not have it cut. 

This. 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Op run…I Don’t buy it at all…the tenor will win out like it has all season. Hang tough. 

 

[mahk_webstah]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I still think next week could produce…but that’s getting into clown range. 

What’s worked is Southwest flow/over running type situations in the occasional clipper. They are more predictable and dependable. A great coastal can be awesome every once in a while, but they are a few and far between and very fickle. I think towards mid month we get into a much better pattern for snow specially with all the cold air around. I think we’re gonna have a good run.

[mahk_webstah]

Maybe we need to flirt with the edge for a bit in order to get some precip 
 

[kdxken]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree Steve.  Looking pretty decent going forward…we’ll have quite a few chances this second half.  Not every one will hit. Or will be good for everybody, but we’ll have opportunities. All you can ask for.  No complaints here so far.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

What’s worked is Southwest flow/over running type situations in the occasional clipper. They are more predictable and dependable. A great coastal can be awesome every once in a while, but they are a few and far between and very fickle. I think towards mid month we get into a much better pattern for snow specially with all the cold air around. I think we’re gonna have a good run.

It might not be that cold mid-month. But if it’s near climo, that’s usually good enough in mid-February. Ideally we’d get the reload for late Feb and into first half of Mar when climo starts going the wrong direction at a faster pace. Remains to be seen on that part. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Judah is a quack. And his explanation is so ambiguous, it’s comical. 

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

 

We’ve heard and seen that before this season…take the under.  

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Judah is a quack. And his explanation is so ambiguous, it’s comical. 

We’ve heard and seen that before this season…take the under.  

Definitely warmer changes over the last several days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s no warmth in sight with that block . Looks like Dec with fake warmups that never happen 

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/2018005302247931955?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely warmer changes over the last several days. 

I believe we will get warmer..And that’s actually a good thing. Don’t need 13 degree highs and below zero lows.  As Will said…if we are near climo in the heart of winter, it’s not a bad thing at all. I’ll take my chances with that look in February. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

https://x.com/weatherwilly/status/2018005302247931955?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

All Good points. The tenor marches on. 

[78Blizzard]

Hard to believe that Boston was only 0.4 degrees F below normal for January.  I'm sure many suburbs around the city were much colder than that.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

All Good points. The tenor marches on. 

There are legit risks for a true mild spell mid-month. I wouldn’t be going all Torch Tiger yet about it due to the -NAO blocking throwing a wrench in there, but we shouldn’t pretend it’s just going to disappear automatically. Bering vortex is a very warm signal usually. 

[mahk_webstah]

But what about Bering vortex paired with -nao?  Wouldn’t nao help maintain highs to dam and or force redevelopment?

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Hard to believe that Boston was only 0.4 degrees F below normal for January.  I'm sure many suburbs around the city were much colder than that.

They were -1.9F 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Hard to believe that Boston was only 0.4 degrees F below normal for January.  I'm sure many suburbs around the city were much colder than that.

BOS was -1.9F on their January departure. But it was def an outlier compared to other parts of SNE. 

ORH -2.9

PVD -2.8

BDL -3.1

 

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

ORH was -2.9F

edit: ninja’d by Will

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

But what about Bering vortex paired with -nao?  Wouldn’t nao help maintain highs to dam and or force redevelopment?

It could. But it doesn’t always. Sometimes the NAO will link up with a SE ridge which will torch us. We’ll have to wait and see as we get closer. 

[CoastalWx]

We definitely don’t need this type of airmass for sure, but if it’s like 540 thickness into NNE as a low approaches then that’s not ideal either. 
 

I just hope we can get back to airmasses that are serviceable.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It could. But it doesn’t always. Sometimes the NAO will link up with a SE ridge which will torch us. We’ll have to wait and see as we get closer. 

I remember that scenario from I think 2023 or was it 2022. I did look at the euro AI which has a couple of minor events until something potentially bigger towards the 15th or 14th maybe. Then something that looks like it wants to cut on the 16th or 17th.

[Damage In Tolland]

This will have to be very wrong if the torch is real . Eerily reminiscent of December 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are legit risks for a true mild spell mid-month. I wouldn’t be going all Torch Tiger yet about it due to the -NAO blocking throwing a wrench in there, but we shouldn’t pretend it’s just going to disappear automatically. Bering vortex is a very warm signal usually. 

This season has found ways to mute these types of things all season to date.  Maybe it doesn’t this go around…but time will tell. 

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There are legit risks for a true mild spell mid-month. I wouldn’t be going all Torch Tiger yet about it due to the -NAO blocking throwing a wrench in there, but we shouldn’t pretend it’s just going to disappear automatically. Bering vortex is a very warm signal usually. 

I can absolutely see some sort of mid month relaxation similar to January before we go back to the cold. Can stop end up near to slightly BN in the means.