The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[stormtracker]

If anything, NAM is worse, so there goes that hope of wester at 0z

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If anything, NAM is worse, so there goes that hope of wester at 0z

 

[Negnao]

January 25, 2000 radar loop:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0
 

 

[Nomz]

Idk, I just don't buy the extreme east double barrel low

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Negnao said:

January 25, 2000 radar loop:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0
 

 

Ok

[hsq]

I'm still learning, but the 0z nam panel below has this new energy I havent seen on other runs that seems to consolidate. It seems a lot stronger, and on the surface sim radar panel it shows low placement over the carribbean. Is that inconsequential or something drawing our system more SE?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[LP08]

Maybe the ICON will save us.

[Weather Junkie]

The 0z Farmer’s Almanac has a 200 mile shift west!

[psuhoffman]

One big issue is that as the NS wave responsible for all this has trended west so has the 50/50 and this is created a more suppressive flow over the top such that the more west track doesn't really matter...the wave is forced well south of us and cuts off then slides east before lifting because of the flow over the top being more suppressive, offsetting the better trajectory of the wave.  

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

One big issue is that as the NS wave responsible for all this has trended west so has the 50/50 and this is created a more suppressive flow over the top such that the more west track doesn't really matter...the wave is forced well south of us and cuts off then slides east before lifting because of the flow over the top being more suppressive, offsetting the better trajectory of the wave.  

Speaking of which somebody tweeted this yesterday...is this true? Lolol

 

[paulythegun]

I'm still learning, but the 0z nam panel below has this new energy I havent seen on other runs that seems to consolidate. It seems a lot stronger, and on the surface sim radar panel it shows low placement over the carribbean. Is that inconsequential or something drawing our system more SE?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Cyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes

[hsq]

Just now, paulythegun said:

11 minutes ago, hsq said:

I'm still learning, but the 0z nam panel below has this new energy I havent seen on other runs that seems to consolidate. It seems a lot stronger, and on the surface sim radar panel it shows low placement over the carribbean. Is that inconsequential or something drawing our system more SE?

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

 

Cyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes

Ah. Thank you!

[Nomz]

Icon slight improvements at f42

[WeatherGeek2025]

[Amped]

13 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Icon slight improvements at f42

Yea a little more separation between the eastern and western lobes of the PV. That gap will help.

Edit: Made almost no difference.

[Tom]

18 minutes ago, Weather Junkie said:

The 0z Farmer’s Almanac has a 200 mile shift west!

Unofficial Networks did just buy Farmers Almanac maybe they are doing something fishy. 

[Nomz]

Improvements continue through f66. Doubt it'll be enough to get it done but we'll see.

[Nomz]

At f78 kicker is further SE. Probably limiting precip up north.

[bncho]

Just now, Nomz said:

At f78 kicker is further SE. Probably limiting precip up north.

Good. It's closer to phasing! 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

That initial position off NC is likely too far east for 95 and points west, we need it just off VA beach.  Good track for Ocean City though...it takes a northward enough trajectory to clobber NYC to Boston with that track also...yay for them 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That initial position off NC is likely too far 95 and points west, we need it just off VA beach.  Good track for Ocean City though...it takes a northward enough trajectory to clobber NYC to Boston with that track also...yay for them 

i think the precip shield will be much higher than models are depicting right now.

[Nomz]

This stupid fucking double barrel low. I know I said I wouldn't be mad if it screwed us but I'm starting to get pretty mad

[bncho]

RGEM is five miles better tilted!

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

This stupid fucking double barrel low. I know I said I wouldn't be mad if it screwed us but I'm starting to get pretty mad

assuming its even real, and not just a convective feedback phantom, as some have postulated.....

[wxdude64]

14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

One thing I will say those are some high-quality graphics for such a new model lol. 

[Amped]

Rgem almost identical also. I dont know how the gfs and euro managed to shift so far from their prior runs at 18z at this stage of the game.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, bncho said:

RGEM is five miles better tilted!

Can't tell if this is sarcasm (if so ya might wanna avoid that in pbp)

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said:

assuming its even real, and not just a convective feedback phantom, as some have postulated.....

I wouldn't believe it if it weren't repeated across so many model runs on different models

[bncho]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Can't tell if this is sarcasm (if so ya might wanna avoid that in pbp)

It's sarcasm but it's also true, at least at hour 60.

[Nomz]

I refuse to believe this crap on the RGEM