stormtracker Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 If anything, NAM is worse, so there goes that hope of wester at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If anything, NAM is worse, so there goes that hope of wester at 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 January 25, 2000 radar loop: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Idk, I just don't buy the extreme east double barrel low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Negnao said: January 25, 2000 radar loop: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2000&month=1&day=24&hour=0&minute=0 Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I'm still learning, but the 0z nam panel below has this new energy I havent seen on other runs that seems to consolidate. It seems a lot stronger, and on the surface sim radar panel it shows low placement over the carribbean. Is that inconsequential or something drawing our system more SE?Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Maybe the ICON will save us. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The 0z Farmer’s Almanac has a 200 mile shift west! 2 8 2 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 One big issue is that as the NS wave responsible for all this has trended west so has the 50/50 and this is created a more suppressive flow over the top such that the more west track doesn't really matter...the wave is forced well south of us and cuts off then slides east before lifting because of the flow over the top being more suppressive, offsetting the better trajectory of the wave. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: One big issue is that as the NS wave responsible for all this has trended west so has the 50/50 and this is created a more suppressive flow over the top such that the more west track doesn't really matter...the wave is forced well south of us and cuts off then slides east before lifting because of the flow over the top being more suppressive, offsetting the better trajectory of the wave. Speaking of which somebody tweeted this yesterday...is this true? Lolol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I'm still learning, but the 0z nam panel below has this new energy I havent seen on other runs that seems to consolidate. It seems a lot stronger, and on the surface sim radar panel it shows low placement over the carribbean. Is that inconsequential or something drawing our system more SE?Sent from my SM-S938U using TapatalkCyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, paulythegun said: 11 minutes ago, hsq said: I'm still learning, but the 0z nam panel below has this new energy I havent seen on other runs that seems to consolidate. It seems a lot stronger, and on the surface sim radar panel it shows low placement over the carribbean. Is that inconsequential or something drawing our system more SE? Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk Cyclogenesis going on at the surface under those messy dashes Ah. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Icon slight improvements at f42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 13 minutes ago, Nomz said: Icon slight improvements at f42 Yea a little more separation between the eastern and western lobes of the PV. That gap will help. Edit: Made almost no difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, Weather Junkie said: The 0z Farmer’s Almanac has a 200 mile shift west! Unofficial Networks did just buy Farmers Almanac maybe they are doing something fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Improvements continue through f66. Doubt it'll be enough to get it done but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 At f78 kicker is further SE. Probably limiting precip up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Nomz said: At f78 kicker is further SE. Probably limiting precip up north. Good. It's closer to phasing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: That initial position off NC is likely too far east for 95 and points west, we need it just off VA beach. Good track for Ocean City though...it takes a northward enough trajectory to clobber NYC to Boston with that track also...yay for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, psuhoffman said: That initial position off NC is likely too far 95 and points west, we need it just off VA beach. Good track for Ocean City though...it takes a northward enough trajectory to clobber NYC to Boston with that track also...yay for them i think the precip shield will be much higher than models are depicting right now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This stupid fucking double barrel low. I know I said I wouldn't be mad if it screwed us but I'm starting to get pretty mad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 RGEM is five miles better tilted! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Nomz said: This stupid fucking double barrel low. I know I said I wouldn't be mad if it screwed us but I'm starting to get pretty mad assuming its even real, and not just a convective feedback phantom, as some have postulated..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: One thing I will say those are some high-quality graphics for such a new model lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Rgem almost identical also. I dont know how the gfs and euro managed to shift so far from their prior runs at 18z at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, bncho said: RGEM is five miles better tilted! Can't tell if this is sarcasm (if so ya might wanna avoid that in pbp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, AlexD1990 said: assuming its even real, and not just a convective feedback phantom, as some have postulated..... I wouldn't believe it if it weren't repeated across so many model runs on different models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Can't tell if this is sarcasm (if so ya might wanna avoid that in pbp) It's sarcasm but it's also true, at least at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I refuse to believe this crap on the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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