The Jan 31 Potential: Stormtracker Failure or 'Tracker Trouncing

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Please ignore the prepubescents.  

I do get irritated because yeah I fuck up sometimes and I don't mind getting trolled or laughed at if it's a legit fuck up.  But I was right.  I know people want a storm, but don't get mad at me.   If I programmed the Euro, we'd be getting a Nova Scotia style blizzard.  

[Buddy1987]

Crazy to me it’s 2026 and within a 60-84 hr window I could be looking at 2 feet or 2 inches. I really wish we would invest some serious coin into the models.

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

Trying to figure out why the Euro ended up with that surface translation even with more west ticks at 500: 

Looks like we just end up more positively tilted for longer (you can see the difference below at hr 87) and there is slightly worse spacing with the kicker out west. This one is going to drive us crazy with small shifts like that making the difference in the end. 

It’s a bit confusing too. Kicker is somewhat there, but not enough in my eyes to usher things out to sea that way given the h5 leading in. It’s indeed more positive and slightly less sharp on those frames. 

[overcautionisbad]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I do get irritated because yeah I fuck up sometimes and I don't mind getting trolled or laughed at if it's a legit fuck up.  But I was right.  I know people want a storm, but don't get mad at me.   If I programmed the Euro, we'd be getting a Nova Scotia style blizzard.  

I for one appreciate your work and insight. Thanks!

[Nomz]

EPS might come in way more NW than op if the 500mb looks that much better. Will say the euro looks leaps and bounds better than it did at 12z, but not as good as 18z (at least aifs)

[Ji]

Mike Thomas:

New 0z European kinda held steady with what the 18z Euro was showing. I wouldn’t say it made any significant jog west from the 18z but it’s west of its last 6z and 12z runs. QPF (green shading) is heavily blown in on its eastern flank due to midlevel winds but the surface low itself very similar to the 18z. So I wouldn’t worry about that QPF at the moment. But interesting to see that it held!

I’ll monitor the ensembles and get them out shortly when they roll in. We’ll see how the members did.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Crazy to me it’s 2026 and within a 60-84 hr window I could be looking at 2 feet or 2 inches. I really wish we would invest some serious coin into the models.

Models are miles better than they were 25 years ago. But that doesn't mean they're at the point where chaos like this doesn't happen. I'm sure in time the technology will continue to grow and improve...it simply isn't there yet. I've kinda learned to accept the limitations (somewhat at least, lol) and appreciate the progress.

[coastal front]

I do like the 500mb trends a lot and that’s not done backing honest either. One things first sure is we are not at a final solution right now

[bncho]

To your credit Randy the precip shield is more north than 18z

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, coastal front said:

I do like the 500mb trends a lot and that’s not done backing honest either. One things first sure is we are not at a final solution right now

This coming day will tell a lot. 

[wxmeddler]

Takeaways for the 0z runs are that that the globals are still shifting with the northern stream and fairly large disagreements remain. Accentuated by the fact the evolution is very sensitive. Convective feedback / parameterization issues starting to show with the rapid deepening. We wait.

[Ji]

Takeaways for the 0z runs are that that the globals are still shifting with the northern stream and fairly large disagreements remain. Convective feedback / parameterization issues starting to show with the rapid deepening. We wait.

Euro turned negative too late for all

[Ji]

Takeaways for the 0z runs are that that the globals are still shifting with the northern stream and fairly large disagreements remain. Convective feedback / parameterization issues starting to show with the rapid deepening. We wait.

Euro turned negative too late for all

[overcautionisbad]

Won't it take a few runs for the models to really get a handle on the new data?

[bncho]

Just now, overcautionisbad said:

Won't it take a few runs for the models to really get a handle on the new data?

Yes, it'll probably be a trend like @Terpeaststated.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Euro turned negative too late for all

We got it

[Ji]

I think the GFS has a better handle on this. It was made for this type of storm.

[Blacksburg Coach]

Remember guys, the last storm was all about the south until it wasn't. Just an observation, but I see these things move west and north more than I do East.

[Amped]

Starting to lose confidence of major snow for the metros. Yeah maybe a decent event for NC, DelMarva and Cape Cod. 

 

DC, Baltimore,Philly and NYC metros are probably getting the finger. The solution from Sunday night that had 2 feet in Harrisburg and 4 feet in Garrett County is definitely not coming back.

[stormtracker]

It’s just a lot of mix signaling. Every midlands come west with the lobe. CMC was kinda ridiculous. So there’s a clear trend westward up top. Maybe this time the euro is the outlier and the GFS leads the way.  Guess we’ll end the standoff by tomm. NAM is out of range but the fact that it backed up the gfs keeps me interested. 

[pazzo83]

21 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

We need the 12 year olds out of here is what it means. 

were these damn kids even around when the Euro nailed Sandy?

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think the GFS has a better handle on this. It was made for this type of storm.

Euro ensembles will likely support the op. Hopefully the euro is done trending west at h5 and the surface will get better. We may not know for sure until Friday at this rate. 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

were these damn kids even around when the Euro nailed Sandy?

I was 5

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s just a lot of mix signaling. Every midlands come west with the lobe. CMC was kinda ridiculous. So there’s a clear trend westward up top. Maybe this time the euro is the outlier and the GFS leads the way.  Guess we’ll end the standoff by tomm. NAM is out of range but the fact that it backed up the gfs keeps me interested. 

Good update, perhaps people should stop stepping on the pbp, it would be helpful.

[pazzo83]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

I was 5

you all have much to learn!

[MDsnowPRO]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Good update, perhaps people should stop stepping on the pbp, it would be helpful.

Quiet time during PbP would be so nice, then feel free to chime in afterwards. But  the TikTok crowd must have their voices heard!

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It’s just a lot of mix signaling. Every midlands come west with the lobe. CMC was kinda ridiculous. So there’s a clear trend westward up top. Maybe this time the euro is the outlier and the GFS leads the way.  Guess we’ll end the standoff by tomm. NAM is out of range but the fact that it backed up the gfs keeps me interested. 

The Euro certainly feels more inconsistent than usual...keeps going back and forth as opposed to being either completely stubborn or making small ticks in one direction. And that despite improvements at H5.

[Nomz]

EPS 00z Mean is NW of 12z, don't think its enough though.

[Disc]

Still a steady trend west with the Euro-AI Ens.

 

 

[Nomz]

Yep, a lot less OTS outliers and the cluster shifted a fair bit NW