February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[nycsnow]

This was 18z nam for comparison 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, doncat said:

Calling this winter "relatively short" ...don't know about that, Dec and Jan both with -3.5° temp departures and double normal snowfall for many of us. Feb with a -9° departure so far. Of course we've been so dry this month however.

when you consider how many decembers featured warm temps over the years, it seems like a long winter to me....i got the cracked skin and icebergs in front of my house to prove it...and never before did i see road crews clearing snow weeks after an event...one event....

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

This was 18z nam for comparison 

Way north on nam

[WeatherGeek2025]

graf

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, Monty said:

We have heard about your burmuda high pressure theory for days. Please stop posting unscientific drivel. 

i haven't posted in two weeks, it's actually a scientific fact what im posting you obviously just don't know meteorology! 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

graf

When other models jump onboard tonight I’ll give it some thought. I wish Jeff B didn’t post it. Of course he knew it would take off like crazy. 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, jm1220 said:

When other models jump onboard tonight I’ll give it some thought. I wish Jeff B didn’t post it. Of course he knew it would take off like crazy. 

yeah, its not like it was the Euro with support of other models or anything... wild

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

When other models jump onboard tonight I’ll give it some thought. I wish Jeff B didn’t post it. Of course he knew it would take off like crazy. 

I didn't actually see it, but I read on the New England forum it backed off South some on the last two runs. I never heard of it till today, so I'd like to see something else on tonight's 0z runs to support it. 

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

[MJO812]

Gfs !

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs !

Now it's starting to get interesting. The north trend is catching on with the big guys. 

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

Just got home - holy crap, GFS!  And the ICON and 3km NAM were decent too.  I'll still take 1-3", but the GFS and AIFS make me want more, lol.  

 

 

[nycsnow]

AIGFS trend

[SnoSki14]

Models are clearly jumping on the more phased trend. 

[MJO812]

Cmc is a miss but much further north than 12z

[jm1220]

Maybe maybe maybe. Ugggh if this ends up a bare bones scrape or close miss. Such a fragile setup but you'd think at this point the models are starting to have a clue. 

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is a miss but much further north than 12z

It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss/scraper, calling it now

EDIT: not just no support, ZERO GEFS support

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It’s not even close. And the GFS is trash, worst model there is. That op run has no GEFS support. This is not going to turn into a snowstorm. This is going to be a miss/scraper, calling it now

EDIT: not just no support, ZERO GEFS support

Another bust in the making ?

[hooralph]

What is happening 

[mattinpa]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another bust in the making ?

When you gave up on the storm I thought it was done, but last second trends have happened before. Was hoping for better from the CMC. We need bigger shifts at this point.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

When you gave up on the storm I thought it was done, but last second trends have happened before. Was hoping for better from the CMC. We need bigger shifts at this point.

I agree, we need pronounced shifts in all the major guidance at this point toward a phase. We're 48 hours out.