February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[MJO812]

Wow gfs 

Welcome back

[nycsnow]

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

[nycsnow]

Pretty big increase on gfs 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Pretty big increase on gfs 

Courtesy of 33andrain 

[eduggs]

It's kind of an interesting scenario because just about all models are trending towards a better phase if you cycle the past 4 runs or so. Even the RGEM and NAM which don't look great at the surface. QPF increases dramatically among the individual ensemble members based on degree of phasing. But as is right now the model consensus is still miss or fringe.

[WeatherGeek2025]

can we get the thread back John?

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

that was a big opportunity missed. Just a day later…

Really just eight hours. The game started at 6 PM and the snow came in like a wall into the city between 2 and 3 AM.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can we get the thread back John?

Gfs on board 

[MJO812]

So it begins

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Sunday will see temperatures reach the upper 30s and lower 40s. A flurry or burst of light snow is possible in some areas tomorrow. A few areas could see a dusting.

Some precipitation could arrive on Sunday or Monday. Areas with the highest probability of seeing precipitation will be south of New York City. A minor accumulation of snow is possible. 

It will likely become even milder with highs in the lower to middle 40s for a time next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +7.93 yesterday. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.519 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 94% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

@Rjaycan we get the thread back after tonight's 0z runs? Wow great weekend coming nice little coating possible tonight and more Sunday night and I can stay up and track all weekend! Let's go guys

[TriPol]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

can we get the thread back John?

Because of one model that’s rarely right? Dude.. come on. 

[MJO812]

Just now, TriPol said:

Because of one model that’s rarely right? Dude.. come on. 

What ? Every model is coming north .

[MJO812]

The more north this comes the south the boundary gets for the next storms.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Because of one model that’s rarely right? Dude.. come on. 

GFS, Euro AI (best computer model in the world) and Icon

[TriPol]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What ? Every model is coming north .

What does the NAM show?

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, TriPol said:

What does the NAM show?

nam shows nothing because it's a nothing model

[TriPol]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

GFS, Euro AI (best computer model in the world) and Icon

If the thread is re-opened, and it doesn’t snow an inch or more in NYC Sunday - Monday, you have to leave for a month.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

If the thread is re-opened, and it doesn’t snow an inch or more in NYC Sunday - Monday, you have to leave for a month.

i'll leave for two weeks

edit: if it does snow an inch you have give me a break

[mriceyman]

If the thread is re-opened, and it doesn’t snow an inch or more in NYC Sunday - Monday, you have to leave for a month.

Yes


.

[eduggs]

The Ukie is north of 12z too. Gets precipitation to CNJ and tickles the City. Looks better aloft too.

[SnoSki14]

26 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Pretty big increase on gfs 

It's amazing what a little bit of phasing can do

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

If it's not too late, switch it to Irish Whiskey 

Excellent choice.  Sending the Triple Triple 

 

Edit: Although this Red Breast is pretty tasty

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, mriceyman said:

Yes


.

two weeks but if i'm right you take a week off 

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here.

Tis the season when it can be 50° or higher and then snowing 6 hours later.  From about mid-February on its fairly typical.

[SnoSki14]

41 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here.

It's plenty cold the night it snows. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Tis the season when it can be 50° or higher and then snowing 6 hours later.  From about mid-February on its fairly typical.

Still remember the post Superbowl snowstorm when it was like 60+ the day before 

[nycsnow]

18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's amazing what a little bit of phasing can do

Let’s get a Boxing Day style come back lol

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Let’s get a Boxing Day style come back lol

this is what euro showed while i was out of the loop just a few days ago