winterwx21 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, eduggs said: The SLP strength and position on Sun night is highly sensitive to the strength/position of the minor shortwave in the northern stream flow. That's why the globals have been jumping around with the degree of phasing, notably and uncharacteristically the AIFS. It's also why a few individual ensemble members, especially a few days ago, showed big QPF numbers while the majority were light or complete misses. This setup is a little unusual for this winter in that we do have a strong southern stream wave traversing the country. It wouldn't take much northern stream interaction at all to get light to moderate precipitation up to at least CNJ. You gotta think the chances of precipitation in NYC are low, but it's the kind of setup that could change quickly in the short term. And if it does happen, it's good that it would be happening at night when it's cold enough to get a little accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 does anyone have the euro ai ensembles clowmap 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The EPS-AI doesn’t support the EURO-AI run. Huge red flag. It didn’t change one iota from 6z actually Here are the 06z and 12z runs of the EPS-AI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Still ~4 inch snow cover at Washington Sq Park. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle north/south adjustments. Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to the 20s at the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle north/south adjustments. Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to the 20s at the coast. still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday 2014? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON-EPS has about 58% chance of measurable at NYC and 12% 1" liquid. That's a relatively small spread between the extreme outcomes. AIFS-EPS has only 2% chance of 1" of liquid. That continues the theme of a likely miss but small chance of a big hit. Kind of unusual at this short lead time over the past 5 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 58 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Great, now the shield thingy that's been there for years will suddenly be visible to everyone. No more of this............ Who knew. I never noticed it in all these years. Do we have to address you as Sir IrishRob17 now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The northern stream shortwave on the 18z NAM looks a little better positioned to bring precipitation north at 48 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Who knew. I never noticed it in all these years. Do we have to address you as Sir IrishRob17 now? Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle north/south adjustments. Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to the 20s at the coast. A very good discussion, IMO. It describes what appears to be a reasonable worst-case scenario, although it should be noted that 4 EPS members now show 6" or more. It touches on the lack of phasing, which is a consistent theme given the wide separation of energy and front-running northern piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods. If it's not too late, switch it to Irish Whiskey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Why would you on February 13? Eps has a stormy pattern ahead. because i have a gas station on the corner and can get fresh gas easy.....and i hate to leave gas laying around in cans for weeks on end. also have an electric toro that rips through snow easily; it did so in the last storm. so i'm good, though the tire on my big machine needs replacing. i don't know how the bitter cold affects gas sitting outside in cans, but it probably isn't good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freezing Drizzle Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 A dusting possible from a weak shortwave passing through overnight 3 to 5 am. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol. It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations. NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD... KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the area. Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type, generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Icon shifted north 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Many of us won't hit 50, and for those that do it will most likely be one day for a couple of hours. yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time. that was a big opportunity missed. Just a day later… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here. Getting to the time of the year where you need solid arctic air-January you can get away with marginal cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday I believe that was 2021? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Pretty big jump on AIGFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Wow gfs Welcome back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Pretty big increase on gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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