February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

hopefully the bermuda High pressure trends stronger bouncing the low pressure gradient north of where it's modeled and bringing us even heavier precipitation than Euro ai showing

[Brian5671]

models playing with us like they did for a few runs after the 1/25 MECS

[Freezing Drizzle]

58 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

my weather opinions are never worth very much tbh....but i think we are done. it's getting warmer, it's been dry, and i just emptied my gas tanks for the snow blowers into the cars....that said i was around for april 82...ran into a former colleague who was my kids principal and my homeroom teacher in high school...she said well you probably weren't born yet in april 82... i was 19....i've seen a few april snows, one in the 70s when i was a kid and a couple in the 2000s, , but they were wet snow events; 82 was a true cold weather blizzard of a foot or more. i see you're in perth amboy; i was a regular of the sea pigeon and the late captain marty haines, who was a friend; we lost him in 2022, he was still running boats for ny water taxi....died on the boat. there was a burial at sea of his ashes with all the local ny harbor ferries saluting him.

Yeah, I'm near the boat basin.

I think it was April, 2000, woke up to a winter wonderland on a Sunday morning. About three inches, stuck everywhere.  The sun came out and by noon it was like it never happened. 
 

[IrishRob17]

34 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have that shield thingy next to my name along with IrishRob and Forky. We’re the traitors like on the show. 

The Monday storm to me is still very low probability until I see other models jump onboard, it’s very fragile and we’ve seen all kinds of possible phasing setups fail over the last few winters so why would this be any different. We’re going to warm up for a while mid to late month but we have to see if the MJO can throw us a bone and allow for colder conditions to return at the end of the month. There can still be snow if we can time that with a storm. 

Great, now the shield thingy that's been there for years will suddenly be visible to everyone. No more of this............

 

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The SLP strength and position on Sun night is highly sensitive to the strength/position of the minor shortwave in the northern stream flow. That's why the globals have been jumping around with the degree of phasing, notably and uncharacteristically the AIFS. It's also why a few individual ensemble members, especially a few days ago, showed big QPF numbers while the majority were light or complete misses. This setup is a little unusual for this winter in that we do have a strong southern stream wave traversing the country. It wouldn't take much northern stream interaction at all to get light to moderate precipitation up to at least CNJ. You gotta think the chances of precipitation in NYC are low, but it's the kind of setup that could change quickly in the short term.

And if it does happen, it's good that it would be happening at night when it's cold enough to get a little accumulating snow. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

does anyone have the euro ai ensembles clowmap

[MJO812]

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS-AI doesn’t support the EURO-AI run. Huge red flag. It didn’t change one iota from 6z actually

Here are the 06z and 12z runs of the EPS-AI.  
 

 

[Nibor]

Still ~4 inch snow cover at Washington Sq Park.

[wthrmn654]

Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low
track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of
the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light
accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to
be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no
snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst
case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less
than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a
more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle
north/south adjustments.

Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs
in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to
the 20s at the coast.

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low
track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of
the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light
accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to
be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no
snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst
case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less
than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a
more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle
north/south adjustments.

Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs
in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to
the 20s at the coast.

still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday 

[weatherpruf]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday 

2014?

[eduggs]

ICON-EPS has about 58% chance of measurable at NYC and 12% 1" liquid. That's a relatively small spread between the extreme outcomes. AIFS-EPS has only 2% chance of 1" of liquid. That continues the theme of a likely miss but small chance of a big hit. Kind of unusual at this short lead time over the past 5 years.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

58 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Great, now the shield thingy that's been there for years will suddenly be visible to everyone. No more of this............

 

Who knew. I never noticed it in all these years. Do we have to address you as Sir IrishRob17 now?

[eduggs]

The northern stream shortwave on the 18z NAM looks a little better positioned to bring precipitation north at 48 hours.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday 

You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time.

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Who knew. I never noticed it in all these years. Do we have to address you as Sir IrishRob17 now?

Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods.

[donsutherland1]

34 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Operational 12Z GFS and ECMWF came a bit north with the low
track, but ensembles still support a low track well south of
the area Sunday night into Monday with a low chance for a light
accumulating snowfall. Best chance at this time will continue to
be across the NYC/NJ metro and Long Island. Right now, have no
snow accumulation across the area. However, a reasonable worst
case at this time would be an inch or two at the coast and less
than an inch inland. Models never phase the two streams for a
more amplified system. On occasion, there has been some subtle
north/south adjustments.

Temperatures during this time are just below normal with highs
in the 30s to around 40 and lows in the upper teens inland to
the 20s at the coast.

A very good discussion, IMO. It describes what appears to be a reasonable worst-case scenario, although it should be noted that 4 EPS members now show 6" or more. It touches on the lack of phasing, which is a consistent theme given the wide separation of energy and front-running northern piece. 

[IrishRob17]

15 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Gift cards and scotch are in the mail for the three shadow mods.

If it's not too late, switch it to Irish Whiskey 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Why would you on February 13?  Eps has a stormy pattern ahead.

because i have a gas station on the corner and can get fresh gas easy.....and i hate to leave gas laying around in cans for weeks on end. also have an electric toro that rips through snow easily; it did so in the last storm. so i'm good, though the tire on my big machine needs replacing. i don't know how the bitter cold affects gas sitting outside in cans, but it probably isn't good.

[Freezing Drizzle]

A dusting possible from a weak shortwave passing through overnight 3 to 5 am.

Carry on.

[RU848789]

I go away for 7 hours w/o internet access and all hell breaks loose, lol.  It would be amazing if the AIFS ends up being right or close to it despite being on an island, although the Euro, GFS and now ICON are at least moving in that direction - I'd be ecstatic with 1-2" given the low expectations.  NWS Philly wasn't buying the AIFS in its latest AFD...

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low pressure moves through the Mid-Atlantic
Sunday night through Monday, bringing some rain and snow to the
area.

Low pressure will track along the Gulf Coast states this
weekend, emerging over the Southeast by Sunday evening. A warm
front will extend out from this low, and overrunning precip will
develop from south to north Sunday afternoon. The heaviest
precipitation will impact the area Sunday night, tapering off
Monday morning. The big question is going to be how far north
the precipitation gets. 12Z/13 NAM pretty much has precipitation
confined to Delmarva, while the 12Z/13 GFS is a bit farther
north with heavier QPF in Delmarva, and precipitation as far
north as into the Lehigh Valley. The 12Z/CMC is similar to the
NAM in that it keeps the system south. In terms of p- type,
generally looking at rain in Delmarva and extreme southern New
Jersey, and snow along and north of the I-95 corridor. 12Z/ECMWF
is similar to the GFS, and the 12Z ECMWF-AI remains an outlier
producing Warning level snowfall across the region. Since it is
an extreme outlier, will not factor the ECMWF-AI in the
forecast. With precipitation amounts heavier in the southern
portions of the area, generally expecting less than an inch of
snow where snow falls, mostly Sunday night into Monday morning.

[MJO812]

Icon shifted north 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Many of us won't hit 50, and for those that do it will most likely be one day for a couple of hours.

yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You're talking about the year the Superbowl was in the Meadowlands? Starting game time temp was 48° and 8 hours later, while some were still returning home in the early am, the snow began and the city ended up with over 8 inches. If the snow started 6-8 hours earlier it would have been the most memorable Super bowl for weather of all time.

that was a big opportunity missed. Just a day later…

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

yeah, but you’re not getting a snowstorm with that air mass. I mean, let’s be real here.

Getting to the time of the year where you need solid arctic air-January you can get away with marginal cold

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

still time for this to trend north! i've seen this happen back in the day after a super bowl i forget the year NAM picked it up we got 8 inches in central park. Picked it up Friday, snowed monday 

I believe that was 2021?

[nycsnow]

Pretty big jump on AIGFS 

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]