It's not coming 1/31-2/1 2026

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Strongly agree.  The AI models have done exceptionally well over the past few days consistently showing the OTS solution.

They definitely seem to be getting better in general. They were good with the Dec snowstorms we had. 

[nycsnow]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Waste ? We just had a big snowstorm.

Yea but we’ve also been shutout for years 

[nycsnow]

Feb 6- second week of Feb look good lot of clippers 

[EasternLI]

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Yes we just got 12” and it’s cold and feels like winter. Which is nice 

but it still sucks to watch what could have been a blizzard miss by 100 miles. Welcome to weenie-ville 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday. 

It’s dragging the baroclinic zone too far east and ruining any setup for our storm to dominate and come up the coast. It strings the whole thing out and it drunkenly stumbles out to sea. It’s like seeing a 6’3” 230 pound guy who’s intimidating at first until you realize he’s drunk as a skunk and he stumbles face first into a pole. Awesome potential, terrible verification. The last few winters it’s always something that ruins these setups. 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Our last true KU coastal snowstorm pattern was February, 2021. For whatever reason, it completely disappeared at the end of that month, never to be heard from again….

Lol yeah. Repeat of 1970 through 1999. Few and far between.

[WeatherGeek2025]

i shouldve just stuck to the euro ai solution and stayed quiet now i look like a bad forecaster on my weather page. oh well lesson learned

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Feb 6- second week of Feb look good lot of clippers 

It looks like we go back to a northern branch dominated pattern next month like we had in December

[SACRUS]

 

Still hope for some light snow as forecasted Northern/northeastern extent of precip is usually further NW of QPF.  

[weathermedic]

Upton's morning AFD

Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming
weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing
would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday
evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling
continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with
the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave
pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to
progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the
500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of
Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the
vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras.
Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our
area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at
this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely
scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be
completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some
room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would
bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to
moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms
of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for
any changes.

[JonClaw]

They can't all be winners.

[Freezing Drizzle]

On 1/26/2026 at 5:13 PM, Tatamy said:

There was 17” inches where I was.  I was a junior in HS at the time and had never seen something of that nature that I was old enough to remember.  The 70s and 80s were lean times for snow lovers in the NY area.  Snow changed to mixed precipitation during the day before it ended.  My only source of weather info at the time was WINS and WCBS plus TV news at night.  People have it so much better today.

Edit: It was: 1/19-20/1978  @Tatamy

www.northshorewx.com/19780120.html   Article from a LI site.

...and watching Alan Casper!

[Poker2015]

31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i shouldve just stuck to the euro ai solution and stayed quiet now i look like a bad forecaster on my weather page. oh well lesson learned

What's your weather page?

[MJO812]

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

 

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

 

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

There's been this low pressure system that's bubbling up from deep in the Caribbean out ahead of this. Which is getting involved with the cyclogenesis. I think it's interfering and helping to shunt it east on guidance. So you're seeing the weird runs with a couple of lows. Wish that thing would vanish. Or get it to slingshot NW by the ULL a la 18z euro yesterday. 

Definitely 

Thats ruining this storm 

[nycsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

 

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

 

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

That’s why I wanted it even more 

[WestBabylonWeather]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

 

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

 

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

Ah, the good old there’s enough snow on the ground so thankfully it’s not coming copium

 

I feel you man. I’m upset too 

[Freezing Drizzle]

43 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Lol yeah. Repeat of 1970 through 1999. Few and far between.

Yeah, you know it's bad when you can rattle off the few in that era: Jan 1978, Feb 1978, Feb 1979, Feb 1983, Jan 1996. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Yeah, you know it's bad when you can rattle off the few in that era: Jan 1978, Feb 1978, Feb 1979, Feb 1983, Jan 1996. 

Yup. 79 was not a big deal in my area. I would add March 93 given the severity of that storm.

If I am not mistaken 79 was similar to the last storm with 8 to 12 followed by a changeover.

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

16 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

What's your weather page?

@nycweathernow on ig

[MJO812]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Ah, the good old there’s enough snow on the ground so thankfully it’s not coming copium

 

I feel you man. I’m upset too 

I hate missing out on storms when we have a cold pattern. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I hate missing out on storms when we have a cold pattern. 

It is frustrating to miss a possible hecs by 150 miles. But life goes on. We will get one. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I hate missing out on storms when we have a cold pattern. 

i think next week could get interesting but i won't be posting for two weeks it looks like.

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I hate missing out on storms when we have a cold pattern. 

just for shts and giggles. at what time frame did boxing day blizzard start coming back on the models. i remember the storm hit on a sunday as well

[NorthShoreWx]

If we wind up with a period of strong northeast or east-northeast winds here, that will make a mess in terms of coastal flooding, but it will also introduce the possibility of some sound effect snow.  Didn't check dT or wind direction, but it seems reasonable.  Kinda rare, unlikely, but I'm grasping at straws here.  Might work for the NJ coast.

That one ephemeral depiction of a 950s benchmark blizzard with a 1040s high over the Midwest would have been something to tell our grandkids about.  Maybe I'll tell them about the great model run of '26.

[Freezing Drizzle]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. 79 was not a big deal in my area. I would add March 93 given the severity of that storm.

If I am not mistaken 79 was similar to the last storm with 8 to 12 followed by a changeover.

 

1979 was about a foot in central NJ. 

Alas, Feb 1983 was the only heavy snowstorm in this era, until March 1993 as you note. What a drought. This forum would be kaput. lol

1/19-20/1978, 16 inches here, changed to freezing drizzle which left a shiny glaze on the surface. It was a busted forecast - high; was supposed to change to rain.

[mikem81]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

just for shts and giggles. at what time frame did boxing day blizzard start coming back on the models. i remember the storm hit on a sunday as well

12z Friday runs 

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup. 79 was not a big deal in my area. I would add March 93 given the severity of that storm.

If I am not mistaken 79 was similar to the last storm with 8 to 12 followed by a changeover.

 

79 was 8-12” in the Metro with more to the south and west.  No changeover.  That was the last time that I know of when LI Sound partially froze over.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

79 was 8-12” in the Metro with more to the south and west.  No changeover.  That was the last time that I know of when LI Sound partially froze over.

 

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

79 was 8-12” in the Metro with more to the south and west.  No changeover.  That was the last time that I know of when LI Sound partially froze over.

I'll be watching the Raritan Bay for ice development.  Hasn't had significant ice for a decade.