Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Brutal...it was in the days days leading into the funeral services for my dad. I remember desperately seeking an escape on my cell while gathered with family to clean out his home, only to find a White Juan redux in NS.

That month was so bad in SNE....very little snow and just brutal cold...I think it was a top 5 coldest March....the one big storm ended up being mostly rain for us while it buried NNE...I think we got a consolation of a few inches of fluff at the end which sublimated within 2 days. Then the knock-out punch was the Cape blizzard which teased us for days. 

 

What an epic stretch in NNE though...I went to Sunday River on the 21st-23rd that month and they had natural snow depth in town of around 40-45"

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

So the GEFS started a little further south otherwise not much difference. MAYBE a couple more west members.

The northern tug seems like a bigger ask than the western 

[Wxbear25]

GEFS took a fairly large step backwards it seems. Further south with the trough and attending surface feature

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially back then.

Back then we prob had storms over the Flemish cap at day 4 that ended up crushing us. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Live by the N/stream ... die by the N/Stream

You've been N/Streamed!    LOL

[wxsniss]

Not saying this happens here but there is some resemblance: only from the perspective of the "shrapnel of vorticity" reminds me a bit of the March 13 2018 snowstorm... there too models struggled with multiple lows developing +/- chasing convection east +/- fujiwara of a low into New England...

At the time I called it the "mogwai" effect of all these pieces of vorticity spawning small surface lows once they hit the water off the Carolinas, and models struggling to resolve how to handle

Ultimately the stew of surface lows did gyrate close to BM with a big hit on much of region

[Kitz Craver]

Since Tip created the thread, we have been on a steady decline from those types of impactful solutions. It’s kinda weenie-ish to be ignoring that

[EastonSN+]

Yeah GEFS just flat out worse.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm back on the train cuzo. i think euro ai trends back west big time today and doesn't have a good handle on nor'easters 

Did you just make that up or should we adopt it as a new rule?

[ariof]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That month was so bad in SNE....very little snow and just brutal cold...I think it was a top 5 coldest March....the one big storm ended up being mostly rain for us while it buried NNE...I think we got a consolation of a few inches of fluff at the end which sublimated within 2 days. Then the knock-out punch was the Cape blizzard which teased us for days. 

 

What an epic stretch in NNE though...I went to Sunday River on the 21st-23rd that month and they had natural snow depth in town of around 40-45"

Pinkham Notch started out with 37" OTG, wound up with 50.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Did you just make that up or should we adopt it as a new rule?

Maybe the GFS becomes the Euro, and the Euro becomes the GFS. Up becomes down and all the like, because that’s what happened in 2013! Just wait for it!

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a massive gyre so a tug NW like that certainly is possible.

It wants to come north, but does it want to come west?

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Wow! Here we are 3-4 days out from the evolution of a very complex / incredibly unusual upper-level setup, and this is being dismissed, as a gone / done deal?  Based on short-term trends of the ICON, NAM, GFS, etc... Maybe this ends up being a miss for most, but sitting here on Wednesday morning and pulling the plug on a weekend storm based on the less than perfect trends (ICON, GFS, CMC, NAM) is a bit baffling?  We are still looking at a wild 500 mb evolution that a day ago was being labeled as historic with lots of uncertainty as to whether or not it was believable.  How many of the "it's gone" believers will shut their computers off and not turn it back on until early next week to follow the next threat?  Lol... Some of this is in jest, but the doom and gloom & confidence being professed it a bit over the top given the setup... just saying...

It’s interesting seeing some of seasoned mets on here calling no snow . Not saying this will be the next 1978.. but as big as it will be it will throw good snows way west in a worse case 

[dryslot]

Hate to say this, But the Nam may end up handling this better seeing were dealing with all this convection and spurious lows all over the surface.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s interesting seeing some of seasoned mets on here calling no snow . Not saying this will be the next 1978.. but as big as it will be it will throw good snows way west in a worse case 

If euro takes a siggy step back and not something minor like noise, then I would be concerned.

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

If euro takes a siggy step back and not something minor like noise, then I would be concerned.

I think it will, hasn’t everything else for the most part?

[CoastalWx]

Alleviate Tip's 580 height rule over MIA and this thing heads for the oil platforms lol.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

I think it will, hasn’t everything else for the most part?

Not necessarily. Canadian improved and GFS had that last minute tug NW.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If euro takes a siggy step back and not something minor like noise, then I would be concerned.

Once the Euro suite begins trending west it generally continues  . We’ll see 

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

I'd like to see another 1978 at some point in my life. Not the gridlock of course but the same snow totals. 1996 and 2005 were great but from what I've heard they were still quite a few steps below 1978.

[Wxbear25]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Hate to say this, But the Nam may end up handling this better seeing were dealing with all this convection and spurious lows all over the surface.

I mean, if you want a snowstorm I feel like you want the NAM to verify at 500 here.

Thats one I look at the 500MB pattern and think “how does this miss”

Most of the other guidance I look at right now and say “how does this hit”

I don’t trust those bowling-ball lows the GFS, CMC, and Euro have to produce since those are tough to drag northward as opposed to kick with more eastward force

Of course it’s the 84hr NAM so…

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I'd like to see another 1978 at some point in my life. Not the gridlock of course but the same snow totals. 1996 and 2005 were great but from what I've heard they were still quite a few calibers below 1978.

2005 was 78-like over the Cape. Over 3' there with gusts 80+.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I'd like to see another 1978 at some point in my life. Not the gridlock of course but the same snow totals. 1996 and 2005 were great but frrom what I've heard they were still quite a few calibers below 1978.

Don't think we'd have the gridlock today with social media but would t o see a storm like that again. I remember back in 78 they thought the storm was too far East to give us a good hit, it wasn't til close to go time they realized what was happening.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

2005 was 78-like over the Cape. Over 3' there with gusts 80+.

True. Actually the top three that I have memories of are 2005, 2022, and 2015. 2013 had viscious winds which was a plus as well. But my father tells me that 1978 was in a league of its own. I hope I get to see one like that in my life.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I'd like to see another 1978 at some point in my life. Not the gridlock of course but the same snow totals. 1996 and 2005 were great but from what I've heard they were still quite a few steps below 1978.

2005 was comparable to the worst 78 had to offer on the cape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

2005 was 78-like over the Cape. Over 3' there with gusts 80+.

Ooops, beat me to it.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

Yeah 2005 was definitely special for the Cape but not many of us lived out there to experience it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Given how large this thing will be , wouldn’t any of those depictions likely throw snow well west of what qpf is printing out? I just don’t see how that wouldn’t happen 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah 2005 was definitely special for the Cape but not many of us lived out there to experience it.

I saw the aftermath. It was insane there. 

[Diggiebot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2005 was comparable to the worst 78 had to offer on the cape.

I was in it and it was by far the worst blizzard I’ve ever experienced. You couldn’t see 100 feet across the street. They pulled the plows cause they were all getting stuck. The wind was roaring too. It lasted 36+ hours. 2015 was bad too but I’d put it a step below 2005