Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Torch Tiger]

does anyone doubt the AI gfs/euro? I know they're vastly different but have that same vibe, regardless of region N-S.  Different flavor of same storm

[The 4 Seasons]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Would be great for any model other than the GFS/GEFS to get on board.

Canadian Parallel doesn't count? 

Would be a solid warning hit at least up to 84. But the old OP is further SE. 

[78Blizzard]

What's interesting on that GFS run is that the heavy convection was to the north and northwest, while the storm took an eastward track.  Usually we see these setups where it chases the heavy convection to the east of the center and we lose out.  That's why I'm not buying this eastward track.

[Damage In Tolland]

Magic is in the air 

[JACKASS]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Magic is in the air 

You been smokin with Ginxy?!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

What's interesting on that GFS run is that the heavy convection was to the north and northwest, while the storm took an eastward track.  Usually we see these setups where it chases the heavy convection to the east of the center and we lose out.  That's why I'm not buying this eastward track.

Even with the dual lows, It didn't chase the one to the east this run, But convection plays many games.

[dryslot]

Snowing into SEMA at 21z on 02/01 on the 18Z Euro

[MJO812]

Euro and AIFS came west

[MJO812]

Gefs AI

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

You been smokin with Ginxy?!

Puff the magic dragon .. lived by the sea?

[Damage In Tolland]

The Euro suite is coming now 

[dryslot]

18z Euro still has the dual lows that pinwheel it NE at the surface as it gains latitude.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Euro suite is coming now 

Spit or swallow?

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

also you have to think that even that with a "graze" track that clips ENE, portions of the S shore to eventually Cape Cod would see lots of OEH/if not ocean-effect banding on that rounding NE to  N to NNW flow

This is why I'll need the deformation zone or it's subby city.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro AI held serve , euro with a massive shift west from the abysmal 12z.

well one thing is agreed on SEMASS looking pretty damn good. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is why I'll need the deformation zone or it's subby city.

Scraper is a no bueno for me to you.

[dryslot]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Euro AI held serve , euro with a massive shift west from the abysmal 12z.

well one thing is agreed on SEMASS looking pretty damn good. 

If someone was still in Harwich he would be all over this.

[brooklynwx99]

euro was quite a bit better with the confluence and overall alignment of the low

[Damage In Tolland]

This is now not a scrape . Confidence grown exponentially 

[78Blizzard]

One more move west and tomorrow the media will be the battle cry for everyone to start running to empty the grocery store shelves. 

[dendrite]

Man that vort is digging for oil off of Savannah.

Kinda has that look like it would throw back a massive deformation band like Jan 2000

[MJO812]

Eps way west

[dryslot]

Nice look on the 18z EPS got to be a good amount of members back to the west of the mean.

[NeonPeon]

GFS looked nice but I didn't really understand the lobe-y look. I get it being elongated for moisture but I'd expect it to be better organized given how bombed out it is.

This would be very have/has not as depicted.

It's still so far away. I'll always prefer to dance with the fishes than with ptype. High ceiling still, and yes, it could still just escape.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man that vort is digging for oil off of Savannah.

Kinda has that look like it would throw back a massive deformation band like Jan 2000

Some similarities 

[dryslot]

Its elongated due to the dual low structure, If we can get that to consolidate more going forward this will come more west then pronged, It looked better on the 18z Euro @H5 this run, Now we need to hold it or improve from here.

[dendrite]

Difference was Jan 2000 had that trailing shortwave phase in and pull the whole system back. As of right now none of the modeled shortwaves want to play that game.

[JACKASS]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Spit or swallow?

You already Know the answer!

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In my 30 years of modeling I've never seen a dam core plum below 516 at Cape Hatteras...  I challenge anyone to find one.  Kocin&Ucellini to NCEP's Library, I'm will to wager we are close to or at a record if/should that take place.  

I agree, ... the idea of moving something of that accord then bodily ENE through the perennial height wall of the west Atlantic is suspect in principle.  There's much to question wrt to the models for doing that.  Can it happen... rules are meant to be broke, but there's also a reason why that particular standard of behavior is very seldom seen.  Just for one ... what's going to happen when that implosion in deep heights teases the b-c ambience extending across Gulf/land interface region out to E of GA/FL?  The explosion that is not there but really should be.. would impose just an incredible convective feedback latency potential.  We have to sit here and imagine, within constrained of learning and experience, that this faux missing component ( presently...) would foster the west correction on its own.  No model seems to even be doing anything with that potential.  Very suss. 

Another bugaboo for me... I have all kinds of problem with a ridge anchored over Idaho, and these models taking an already stretched Rossby signature, ...and straining my believability to even more tension by stretching into something like this...   Wanna hear something funny?  I mused that idea yesterday, 'gee I hope this doesn't end up over ALB'.  

Not happenin'    

As an afterthought, with a west vestigial -NAO going on, that also doesn't lend to longitudinal motion escaping the M/A latitudes. 

Yes, yes and yes!

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, NeonPeon said:

GFS looked nice but I didn't really understand the lobe-y look. I get it being elongated for moisture but I'd expect it to be better organized given how bombed out it is.

This would be very have/has not as depicted.

It's still so far away. I'll always prefer to dance with the fishes than with ptype

I always say the same thing but in the case of this storm id prefer it to slam into ACK or GON. Would be a ton of qpf ahead of this before any mixing would even be a threat.