Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[tavwtby]

looks like it ticked more south with some of those members, still have time for more north capture and closed off, but like tip said, a few more runs and it's either game on or ots, does have potential to absolutely explode though, where is the concern

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Alot more whiffs but a smal cluster is over the elbow lol.

[dryslot]

We all have our wants and needs to where we would like H5 to close off, Unfortunately, None of us have a say in the matter.

[tavwtby]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We all have our wants and needs to where we would like H5 to close off, Unfortunately, None of us have a say in the matter.

that looks like it was a bit stronger but dug more S this run to me anyway 

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm behind all you folks ( snow day yesterday means double duty today  ) but I've never seen sub-516 dm heights in a closed trough at Cape Hatteras before  (12 gfs). 

that's unworldy

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon is Igone 

Gonna name this the Bryce storm. This has you written all over it. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Richmond doesn’t get HECS though so no way those solutions verify. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

that looks like it was a bit stronger but dug more S this run to me anyway 

I think you will find a stronger vortmax is going to dig south too, It probably would not hurt if we could start the process a bit north and west of where it is now to tilt the trough more negative sooner.

[Ginx snewx]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Odd...low is a tick se of the BM, yet hardly any precip across the interior.

7h looks saturated. 850 dry. My ignorance but death band should be much farther inland? 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm behind all you folks ( snow day yesterday means double duty today  ) but I've never seen sub-516 dm heights in a closed trough at Cape Hatteras before  (12 gfs). 

that's unworldy

Maybe its wrong.  

[Kitz Craver]

Two negatives thus far today. A trend SE with SLP track and no discernible trend to close off further north

[SouthCoastMA]

One of the GEFS ensembles near the mean is a 958mb on the benchark. Would probably send a giant deform band far inland.  

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think you will find a stronger vortmax is going to dig south too, It probably would not hurt if we could start the process a bit north and west of where it is now to tilt the trough more negative sooner.

Never seen a closed 518 ULL in SC before you? 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Never seen a closed 518 ULL in SC before you? 

No, That's why i think what were looking at so far is wrong, But where does eventually end up is the question.

[Ginx snewx]

OTS with Boston to PVD to Montauk smoked?  Seems like it 4 to 15 west to east type 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Two negatives thus far today. A trend SE with SLP track and no discernible trend to close off further north

IDK not everything is trending se:

[HoarfrostHubb]

What is the Apple weather app saying?  It nailed this past storm 

 

[Wxbear25]

Even the far OTS solutions are very, very close to something much bigger and potentially major in nature.

The devil is in the details, and the fact that the feature that eventually turns into our ULL Is currently over Hudson Bay/far northwestern Quebec means that physical data collection is probably sparse, at best.

a lot of time, and minor alterations like the orientation of vorticity rounding the ULL will make a huge difference here.

Sit back and enjoy the ride. One way or another, it’s going to be a roller coaster the next few days

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No, That's why i think what were looking at so far is wrong, But where does eventually end up is the question.

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast 

something like this?

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

IDK not everything is trending se:

I would hit that 

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast 

If you’re looking at the jet, probably want to look a little higher, like 300 or 250mb. The GEFS puts other low off the coast pretty much directly in a textbook spot, left exit of the jet where diffluence is maximized

[nbweather]

Most of the ensemble members are pretty deep with this storm. QPF extent will be muted on ensemble means compared to what likely happens with this. I don't think it would take much to have a large storm that even impacts inland areas further N/W of what guidance currently shows. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast 

Yup, That's why i had mentioned the delmarva give or take.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

If you’re looking at the jet, probably want to look a little higher, like 300 or 250mb. The GEFS puts other low off the coast pretty much directly in a textbook spot, left exit of the jet where diffluence is maximized

 

[Wxbear25]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Yup! Now overlay that with the surface low and you’ll see how well it correlates with the left-exit of that powerful streak

[Hoth]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast 

Does it usually set up where you have greater diffluence aloft? 

[Wxbear25]

5 minutes ago, nbweather said:

Most of the ensemble members are pretty deep with this storm. QPF extent will be muted on ensemble means compared to what likely happens with this. I don't think it would take much to have a large storm that even impacts inland areas further N/W of what guidance currently shows. 

You don’t really want a super-deep low if you want widespread precipitation, because it implies two things

1) it’s likely occluding or close to it

2) the mid and upper-level features are so wrapped up that they basically wrap into itself as opposed to spread out

ideally, you want the ULL to still be strengthening and the storm just getting caught as it gets close to your latitude so it stalls and then slowly degrades over you, as opposed to having an already occluded low decaying over you 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

My limited training and knowledge says this is where initiation should start. Up tight to the coast 

From a PV thinking perspective…a big tightly curled PV anomaly digging through the carolinas. The diffluent area on the PV gradient sits right over the baroclinic zone…so yeah, you’d expect sfc pressure falls off the VA/NC coast which the GFS has. And yeah, I know you’re using a GEFS mean. 
 

[WeatherGeek2025]

why do I have this feeling that the precipitation shield isn't wide enough to the northwest of the Low pressure. A system that deep usually has a way wider precipitation shield and that usually doesn't get modeled right until about 2-3 days away from the actual event!