The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[SouthWake33]

NWS service still daying 3-5 Sat
3-5 more Sat night
SE Wake

Tell them to check in with WRAL for what’s going to actually happen.


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[Leesville Wx Hawk]

1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said:

Tell them to check in with WRAL for what’s going to actually happen.


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You’re joking right?  They blew it last week.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

WFMY’s in-house model

[CaryWx]

The NWS only updates every 8hrs or so right?  They are not going to nowcast like the TV broadcast mets do on model run cycles.  Let's see where they are on the next update cycle.

[SouthWake33]

You’re joking right?  They blew it last week.

Yes I’m being sarcastic. Hoping NWS is right.


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[kvegas-wx]

At this rate the Bojangles crew will be at work at 5am and I can still get my biskies in the morning.  Thats the best forecast I could ask for.  We are going to get smoked on the 5-8 WSW in the triad.  We'll be lucky to see 2-3" as Gianna goes to visit the fish.

[SouthWake33]

The NWS only updates every 8hrs or so right?  They are not going to nowcast like the TV broadcast mets do on model run cycles.  Let's see where they are on the next update cycle.

Yes I think their last update was at 8:22pm. Seems they would’ve had reason enough to change their forecast at that time and didn’t. We’ll see.


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[Regan]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

The NWS only updates every 8hrs or so right?  They are not going to nowcast like the TV broadcast mets do on model run cycles.  Let's see where they are on the next update cycle.

Well. They didn’t a small one at 1:54am, another in the 8am window, then and afternoon. They did one around 8pm too. I don’t know when they do the big discos though. 

[PackGrad05]

KAT CAMPBELL tweeted:  These are new Euro ensembles - still showing a good bet that you'll see snow but the odds of 3" decreased a bit in the western part of our viewing area. Our saving grace? The high resolution models aren't seeing the snow band in our northern counties that's been around for hours

[Snowncanes]

Since it’s now casting time, our upper low looks to have closed off over Illinois tonight

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

At this rate the Bojangles crew will be at work at 5am and I can still get my biskies in the morning.  Thats the best forecast I could ask for.  We are going to get smoked on the 5-8 WSW in the triad.  We'll be lucky to see 2-3" as Gianna goes to visit the fish.

What are you going to get kvegas? If I were to partake, I would get a ham and egg biscuit (mustard and pepper a must).


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[Regan]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

Since it’s now casting time, our upper low looks to have closed off over Illinois tonight

Any thoughts you have share away. 

[CoolBreeze]

When I look at the wind field on Ventusky, the center of circulation appears to be about 50 miles off the SC coast, and it's been moving slowly parallel to the coast all evening. I hope that means the low will hug the coast more than the models have said as it deepens...

[PackGrad05]

03Z HRRR fills in much faster for Wake.  Hopefully the start of a good trend

[kvegas-wx]

3 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

What are you going to get kvegas? If I were to partake, I would get a ham and egg biscuit (mustard and pepper a must).


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Ham and egg all the way my man!!  Did you know you can order double meat?  Or even double egg or cheese!  Just ask when you order.  The AI struggles with it though.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Radar starting to ignite 

[Snowncanes]

4 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Since it’s now casting time, our upper low looks to have closed off over Illinois tonight

Models that are most correct with this feature at this point in time: RDPS, RAP, UKMET, in that order. Doesn’t necessarily mean to treat these as gospel but have a better chance of accurately depicting downstream if you’re not way off of a major feature (looking at you HRRR)

[NYweatherguy]

Radar is filling in nicely in N. Georgia. It's already snowing at my buddy's house in Dahlonega.

[Regan]

Too bad this Hrrr only goes out to about 4pm. Wonder what we’d have ended up with 

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

Since it’s now casting time, our upper low looks to have closed off over Illinois tonight

Go time. Gonna be interesting. Waning - NAO - does that effect south push?

Overall H5 generally favorable for the next 10 days with a bonafide small break.


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[NEGA_Dawg]

Off to bed. Hope the ground’s white in the morning. If not, oh well.

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, NEGA_Dawg said:

Off to bed. Hope the ground’s white in the morning. If not, oh well.

Are you crazy? You can’t sleep at a time like this. I never get any sleep and look at how I turned out.  

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Just now, NEGA_Dawg said:

Off to bed. Hope the ground’s white in the morning. If not, oh well.

Should be snowing at your house within the hour 

[NEGA_Dawg]

2 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Should be snowing at your house within the hour 

The radar looks very scattered at the moment. I will be up in a few hours to see what's going on. 

[Snowncanes]

Another thing the RDPS has nailed down of somewhat importance is the PWAT values. (How much available moisture there is in the air). It’s been very consistent over the last 6 runs or so with this as well. If I had to pick a model that seems to be handling this storm the best right now, that would be it.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Charlotte deserves this 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dry Slot Risk

Thats.. Well thats new. 

25 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Are you crazy? You can’t sleep at a time like this. I never get any sleep and look at how I turned out.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

GSO and INT reporting light snow now

[WinstonSalemArlington]