The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[ncforecaster89]

4 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

absolutely insane rates in E NC on the 3k nam. LP just sitting there absolutely cranking for 20+ hours straight. Looks like models are catching on to it being more west, somewhat in line with the Gulf Stream. Dream E NC setup

How does this work for everyone? 
 

Edit: see I was late posting the map on the previous page.  

[lilj4425]

Hopefully the 3K is out to lunch. That dry slot doesn’t seem to have any other model support for now thankfully. How does the 12K NAM look? 

[ncforecaster89]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

How does the 12K NAM look? 

Horrible…being that I live in the “screw zone!” 

[D-Money]

7 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

absolutely insane rates in E NC on the 3k nam. LP just sitting there absolutely cranking for 20+ hours straight. Looks like models are catching on to it being more west, somewhat in line with the Gulf Stream. Dream E NC setup

[lilj4425]

3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

Horrible…being that I live in the “screw zone!” 

Yeesh. Why such a large dry slot compared to the other models? What is it seeing the other models aren’t?

[JoshM]

6z ICON is coming in drier, too 

[timnc910]

6z ICON

[Snowncanes]

5 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Yeesh. Why such a large dry slot compared to the other models? What is it seeing the other models aren’t?

ULL is a bit more north and transfers earlier. I still think y’all will be fine in the upstate in the 3-6 range

[wxdawg10]

10 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

absolutely insane rates in E NC on the 3k nam. LP just sitting there absolutely cranking for 20+ hours straight. Looks like models are catching on to it being more west, somewhat in line with the Gulf Stream. Dream E NC setup

Dream set up for the triangle east. Honestly it seems like the consensus is reverting back to that area between Raleigh and Greenville being the jackpot, similar to what was being modeled earlier in the week with the low being closer to the coast.

Regardless i think most of the state gets atleast 3 inches.  Georgia and SC folks i'd be a little nervous though

[timnc910]

6z RDPS

[ncforecaster89]

19 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Yeesh. Why such a large dry slot compared to the other models? What is it seeing the other models aren’t?

In simplest terms, it’s the result of the coastal low tracking farther offshore as it’s undergoing bombogenesis…where the deformation zone is positioned more to the north/northeast, favoring central/eastern NC and SE VA with high totals (10-20+ inches along the coast and inland).  

However, this setup allows dry mid/upper-level air to wrap cyclonically around the low's southwestern/southern flank from the southwest, creating a pronounced dry slot that intrudes into SE NC.  
 

The worst part of this particular scenario is that the dry air wraps in during the peak precip phase, leading to an abrupt transition from heavy bands (e.g., near New Bern/Kitty Hawk) to much lower/no accumulations in Wilmington and other SE coastal zones. 

That said, this is a common feature in these explosive coastal setups, especially when the low stays a bit farther east, as shown in that 06Z 12km NAM run. 

[JoshM]

16 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

In simplest terms, it’s the result of the coastal low tracking farther offshore as it’s undergoing bombogenesis…where the deformation zone is positioned more to the north/northeast, favoring central/eastern NC and SE VA with high totals (10-20+ inches along the coast and inland).  

However, this setup allows dry mid/upper-level air to wrap cyclonically around the low's southwestern/southern flank from the southwest, creating a pronounced dry slot that intrudes into SE NC.  
 

The worst part of this particular scenario is that the dry air wraps in during the peak precip phase, leading to an abrupt transition from heavy bands (e.g., near New Bern/Kitty Hawk) to much lower/no accumulations in Wilmington and other SE coastal zones. 

That said, this is a common feature in these explosive coastal setups, especially when the low stays a bit farther east, as shown in that 06Z 12km NAM run. 

Well, the NAM has a bias to overamp these things , so I’m hoping it’s out to lunch for now

[ncforecaster89]

5 minutes ago, JoshM said:

Well, the NAM has a bias to overamp these things , so I’m hoping it’s out to lunch for now

You’re correct in that the NAM is more prone to exaggerated dry slots than the globals (such as the ECMWF and GFS).  Even so, the physics still apply and is a definite cause for concern.  It was also seen on the 18Z ECMWF, as well.  In both cases, the dry slot was directly over my house!

[JoshM]

6z running … steady as she goes thru hour 30

[JoshM]

Looking similar to 0z

[JoshM]

[JoshM]

8 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said:

You’re correct in that the NAM is more prone to exaggerated dry slots than the globals (such as the ECMWF and GFS).  Even so, the physics still apply and is a definite cause for concern.  It was also seen on the 18Z ECMWF, as well.  In both cases, the dry slot was directly over my house!

Definitely, someone’s going to get screwed by the dry air. But that’s a now cast thing.

[senc30]

Looks like the gfs dropped numbers a lot for the coastal area.

[lilj4425]

Models all over the damn place still. I’m everywhere from a dusting (NAM) to almost ten inches (Euro) depending on which one you look at. lol. 

[ncforecaster89]

12 minutes ago, senc30 said:

Looks like the gfs dropped numbers a lot for the coastal area.

It’s a direct consequence of the more eastward track and finding ourselves in the strong subsidence zone, while the more inland areas are in the deformation zone.  
 

There’s always going to be winners and losers in these type of setups…with a coastal low that’s bombing.  In this particular run/solution, we are the undisputed losers.  But like Josh noted, it’s still too early to pinpoint the precise location of these dynamics. 

[Aleksey]

Dream set up for the triangle east. Honestly it seems like the consensus is reverting back to that area between Raleigh and Greenville being the jackpot, similar to what was being modeled earlier in the week with the low being closer to the coast.
Regardless i think most of the state gets atleast 3 inches.  Georgia and SC folks i'd be a little nervous though

Why? Every short range model and euro plus gives me 3-4” lol I’m sitting fine. Ain’t worried at all. If it happens then cool, if not then that sucks but that’s weather. My original forecast of 2-4” looks likely to verify in NE GA and it still ticking west for us on every run including the all the mesos. Really sitting pretty.


.

[JQPublic]

3 hours ago, ncforecaster89 said:

For those who might be interested, here’s my latest projections for 25 select locations along the east coast: 

https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017125164824100896

Link didn’t work

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

Overnight runs have been very kind to the Triangle. Showing a lot more moisture now than it was

[kvegas-wx]

Warnings up for the Triad and they dropped 1 inch from the prior watch, now 4-7", which given the overnight model runs is probably the most prudent approach.  You have to figure someone in ENC from Little Washington up to Elizabethton is going to jackpot on this.  Gianna is on her way!

[BornAgain13]

Going to be an interesting storm! Can definitely see with the updated guidance the boom and bust potential.

[QC_Halo]

3 hours ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Where is everyone?   Back in my day, we’d model watch and post all night, then go straight into work without any sleep.  

People get old.

[eyewall]

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Warnings up for the Triad and they dropped 1 inch from the prior watch, now 4-7", which given the overnight model runs is probably the most prudent approach.  You have to figure someone in ENC from Little Washington up to Elizabethton is going to jackpot on this.  Gianna is on her way!

They did have the caveat of locally 10 inches plus but the truth is confidence is pretty low right up until game time so at this point anything can happen. 

[olafminesaw]

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

They did have the caveat of locally 10 inches plus but the truth is confidence is pretty low right up until game time so at this point anything can happen. 

I think the boom/bust potential is a little less in the triad, still feel like 4-7" is really pretty likely. The boom bust potential in Raleigh is much higher where I wouldn't be surprised if 2" feel or if a foot fell