The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[CaryWx]

When this ULL wave gets over Tenn. it will tell the tale one way or the other on the coastal performance sounds like.  At that point we'll know right? 

When will that be exactly?

[ncforecaster89]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m not a met, but you can tell the NAM has zero clue where to place the coastal. I’d think it’s some feedback issues but there will be a bust zone somewhere. You can’t have it hammering west and east with air sinking in middle. 

The “dry slot” results from strong sinking motion (subsidence) on the storm's western/northwestern flank (classic comma-head dry punch) wrapping drier mid-level air in from the west/southwest…which limits precip westward/inland despite good low-level moisture feed (e.g., Gulf/Atlantic wrap-in via onshore flow and warm advection). 
 

In the more offshore/eastward-biased solutions, the dry slot expands more aggressively westward, carving deeper into the interior areas…which reduces the moisture feed's ability to "blossom" widespread heavy snow farther west/inland. 

 

If the surface low hugs the coast (stronger interaction with the ULL), the dry slot narrows/weakens on the west side, allowing better moisture wrap-in from the Atlantic/Gulf and heavier, more widespread bands eastward/inland. 

[Buddy1987]

RGEM at 36 is quite a bit stronger than the FV3 when comparing them at 12Z but FV3 is slightly more elongated and neutrally tilted. Not much tho.. 

[odell.moton]

Now-casting? It’s sunny outside. What a fail of a system.

Come on man

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[Snowncanes]

1 minute ago, PeeDeeWx said:

Confused why folks are upset over the latest NAM?

 

Because everybody is (understandably) focused on their backyard and it dry slots RDU fairly significantly. Which is where a lot of this board (me included) live lol

[Snowncanes]

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

When this ULL wave gets over Tenn. it will tell the tale one way or the other on the coastal performance sounds like.  At that point we'll know right? 

When will that be exactly?

Saturday morning haha. Hopefully the models can figure it out a little before then.

[ncforecaster89]

28 minutes ago, VBsurf said:

Maybe some bay enhancement as well? Being in Virginia Beach myself my only worry is the south shift closer to game time with this setup


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Not necessarily any noticeable bay enhancement, per se, but rather simply based on my own track expectations.  
 

Full disclosure: I’m hoping that area is ground-zero for some of the highest totals as it enhances the prospects for blizzard conditions…which will lead me to document the event there, rather than remain here at my home…just N of Wilmington.  

[olafminesaw]

RGEM has the screw zone more over the triad rather than Raleigh. Focuses energy on the coastal portion and drives the ULL moisture south 

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, Snowncanes said:

Saturday morning haha. Hopefully the models can figure it out a little before then.

Closer to midnight tomorrow night though right?

[Buddy1987]

RGEM MUCH lighter on precip amounts. Really looks nothing like FV3 for western areas. Didn't want to see that.. 

[wncsnow]

Worst RDPS run in a while for most of us 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Worst RDPS run in a while for most of us 

Looking at it again, it looks funky as hell though. It has the equivalency of supercells over the Atlantic and spawns two different SLP's around the enhanced area of thunderstorm related activity. Idk if I buy this at all. Would be a prime example of convective feedback if i've ever seen one.

LOL as the run continued it now spawned a THIRD SLP. What in the world..

[olafminesaw]

[QC_Halo]

2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Closer to midnight tomorrow night though right?

My NWS pinpoint (CLT), has precip starting late Friday night/Midnight. FWIW 

[ADB83]

The dry slot seems inevitable. It’s just a question of where. Most likely spots are the Triad and the Triangle and slightly east of the Triangle. But it’s the $1 million question.


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[wxdawg10]

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

The dry slot seems inevitable. It’s just a question of where. Most likely spots are the Triad and the Triangle and slightly east of the Triangle. But it’s the $1 million question.


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like an extremely twisted game of weather russian roullette.

 

Someone in this area will be lucky to get 2 inches

[BooneWX]

The RDPS tilts just a tick too late. A game of inches. 

[wncsnow]

There's a reason the old saying goes- "upper level low, weathermans woe"

[ncforecaster89]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

The dry slot seems inevitable. It’s just a question of where. Most likely spots are the Triad and the Triangle and slightly east of the Triangle. But it’s the $1 million question.


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Agree.  Given it’s track dependent on the coastal low and we still have a ways to go on nailing that down, it’s difficult to pinpoint where that’ll be.  

[wncsnow]

The RRFS (Nams replacement) is looking better for a lot of us

[ncforecaster89]

Gotta get back to work, myself, but wishing ALL of us the best outcome, possible.  

[ADB83]

The RRFS (Nams replacement) is looking better for a lot of us

What’s interesting about this run is it’s the polar opposite of what that model has been doing. Nobody has been quoting it in a thread because it’s been the worst case scenario for days. Until now apparently.


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[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The RRFS (Nams replacement) is looking better for a lot of us

Wonder what type of verification scores it has.. looks very much like FV3/GFS

[GaWx]

Icon heaviest snow in NC just N of Fayetteville and NE with big hits those locations. It also gives me a rare for this area 0.5” though I’ll believe that when I see it!

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

What’s interesting about this run is it’s the polar opposite of what that model has been doing. Nobody has been quoting it in a thread because it’s been the worst case scenario for days. Until now apparently.


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Its got a lot to learn but does ok within 48 or less hours from what I have noticed. 

[ADB83]

Wonder what type of verification scores it has.. looks very much like FV3/GFS

It’s a big flip from what it was doing a couple of runs ago. I can’t speak for the too distant past, but I know it did well last storm.


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[ADB83]

Why are we even looking at the NAM instead of this model if it’s being replaced?

Because two runs ago the only people getting snow were potentially Bermuda


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[lilj4425]

Just now, ADB83 said:

Because two runs ago the only people getting snow were potentially Bermuda


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That makes sense. I guess that’s why the NAM hasn’t been replaced with it yet. lol.

[Snowncanes]

Just to illustrate how much we are splitting hairs… here is the 500mb view of the upper low from the FV3 and the RGEM. Nearly identical in placement but the tilt is just a tad bit better on the FV3 and the flow is more onshore and pulls the coastal in just a tiny bit more. Ideally we’d have this thing closing off and going neutral in central Tennessee/north Alabama and we aren’t terribly far from that. But that’s what would give us our best shot at board wide happiness lol.

[wake4est]