The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[NorthHillsWx]

Not a bad run but a few concerning things. Shaved .1-.2” QPF for a lot of areas and though the snow maps don’t show it well you can see evidence of the dry slot as coastal takes over 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

I knew it. Party is over.  Probably will be lucky to see flurries now.

It trended slightly south. It actually benefits you

[Silver Meteor]

7 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Not as good as the runs it has been putting out. The 6z wasn't terrible

 

Wilmington and Myrtle ... what a hoot! 

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It trended slightly south. It actually benefits you

Oh. Well, in that case party on. 

[WiseWeather]

If i recall these systems tend to overpreform.


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[NorthHillsWx]

WRAL going with 3-6” for most piedmont locations with 5-7+” for coastal areas

[JoshM]

GEFS went up from 0z

 

[RaleighNC]

11 hours ago, landof2rivers said:

Could you please post the photo? It’s been a long time since I’ve seen it. It was epic.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/512-jburns/content/

 

[ncforecaster89]

I’m not telling anyone anything they don’t already know, but there’s still plenty of time for significant changes (good or bad).  It’s for this reason that it’s important not to get too emotionally high, either way, from one model cycle to the next.  
 

For example, I’m naturally most concerned with what the SE coast of NC gets being that it’s where my family and I live.  Although things currently look good for us, I’m well aware of just how quickly things can change with relatively minor adjustments synoptically.  The peak of the storm would occur around midnight on Sunday (Saturday overnight), which is still about 66 hours out.  
 

Having literally been tracking and forecasting in eastern NC for more than 35 years, I know the importance of keeping one’s expectations in check and that it’s best to retain a more cautious approach with the snow accumulation projections until we get inside the 36-48 window from peak conditions (not simply the start of the event).  

All that said, I’m genuinely hoping for an event that’s most pleasing to the vast majority of this board/sub-forum!  

[ncforecaster89]

23 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Literally every single model along with RAH shows more than that for those areas. lol. Playing the conservative card because their feelings got hurt after the last system is silly. 

It’s most prudent to start conservative and make incremental changes (increasing totals) than potentially having to go the other way.  

[SnowHabit]

26 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Literally every single model along with RAH shows more than that for those areas. lol. Playing the conservative card because their feelings got hurt after the last system is silly. 

When a commenter asked about the lower totals on the WRAL map than those included in the Winter Storm Watch, WRAL’s Grant Skinner responded:

”Very good question! We decided to go more conservative with the totals since there’s still model uncertainty. Our team talked about the latest model guidance and overall pattern yesterday and early this morning. It’s not clear where a heavier band of snow will set up. It’s just a first look; we’d rather trend higher if needed than say a bunch of snow and then not have near as much.”

[olafminesaw]

Ensembles still looking solid. 

 

[RaleighNC]

To paraphrase Braveheart:  "My Dad says we'll get some snow out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're $*%$ed."

[WiseWeather]

Cmon buddy throw some moisture back to the foothills


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[neverSnowsLCSC]

I’ll be so happy with any accumulation.. but if we can just somehow extend the red zone a bit further south and west…

[mstr4j]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s been showing up to varying degrees on different runs across most modeling. If you’re between Greensboro and Greenville that is this storms *potential* fail mode 

And Upstate, SC...never freaking fails 

[ADB83]

0z WN2


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[mstr4j]

1 hour ago, timnc910 said:

Not as good as the runs it has been putting out. The 6z wasn't terrible

 

Ill take it all day long

[Rsheely88]

6z Euro not looking good. Slashed QPF in half many locations


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[BornAgain13]

6z Euro looks good for a lot but looks like it cut qpf back in eastern areas. Not sure why.

[Rsheely88]

6z Euro not looking good. Slashed QPF in half many locations


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[timnc910]

Euro trending drier and drier with each run for North Carolina. The big winners now is the Foothills and Upstate of South Carolina.

 

[Rsheely88]

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[buckeyefan1]

[Rsheely88]

Euro trending drier and drier with each run for North Carolina. The big winners now is the Upstate of South Carolina.
 

Trends are not good for many. Upstate would have to rely heavily on the front end ULL snow and often times they underperform. This could be slipping away.


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[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said:

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Wow. Didn’t see that coming for my area. Why did the qpf shift so far west? 

[BornAgain13]

The system itself looks like its getting locked into a close place as far as where the snow print will be. Now its a matter of how much qpf in your areas.

[gman]

2 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

Euro trending drier and drier with each run for North Carolina. The big winners now is the Upstate of South Carolina.

 

Yes!

[timnc910]

I am not sure the track record of the AI Euro but it doesn't agree

 

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Wow. Didn’t see that coming for my area. Why did the qpf shift so far west? 

I can't see the 6z. The upper low most likely we negative tilt quicker that the 0z run. That would result it more qpf on the NW side of the upper low