NorthHillsWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Not a bad run but a few concerning things. Shaved .1-.2” QPF for a lot of areas and though the snow maps don’t show it well you can see evidence of the dry slot as coastal takes over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: I knew it. Party is over. Probably will be lucky to see flurries now. It trended slightly south. It actually benefits you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Not as good as the runs it has been putting out. The 6z wasn't terrible Wilmington and Myrtle ... what a hoot! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: It trended slightly south. It actually benefits you Oh. Well, in that case party on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 If i recall these systems tend to overpreform.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 WRAL going with 3-6” for most piedmont locations with 5-7+” for coastal areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 GEFS went up from 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 hours ago, landof2rivers said: Could you please post the photo? It’s been a long time since I’ve seen it. It was epic. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/profile/512-jburns/content/ 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I’m not telling anyone anything they don’t already know, but there’s still plenty of time for significant changes (good or bad). It’s for this reason that it’s important not to get too emotionally high, either way, from one model cycle to the next. For example, I’m naturally most concerned with what the SE coast of NC gets being that it’s where my family and I live. Although things currently look good for us, I’m well aware of just how quickly things can change with relatively minor adjustments synoptically. The peak of the storm would occur around midnight on Sunday (Saturday overnight), which is still about 66 hours out. Having literally been tracking and forecasting in eastern NC for more than 35 years, I know the importance of keeping one’s expectations in check and that it’s best to retain a more cautious approach with the snow accumulation projections until we get inside the 36-48 window from peak conditions (not simply the start of the event). All that said, I’m genuinely hoping for an event that’s most pleasing to the vast majority of this board/sub-forum! 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 23 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Literally every single model along with RAH shows more than that for those areas. lol. Playing the conservative card because their feelings got hurt after the last system is silly. It’s most prudent to start conservative and make incremental changes (increasing totals) than potentially having to go the other way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHabit Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 26 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Literally every single model along with RAH shows more than that for those areas. lol. Playing the conservative card because their feelings got hurt after the last system is silly. When a commenter asked about the lower totals on the WRAL map than those included in the Winter Storm Watch, WRAL’s Grant Skinner responded: ”Very good question! We decided to go more conservative with the totals since there’s still model uncertainty. Our team talked about the latest model guidance and overall pattern yesterday and early this morning. It’s not clear where a heavier band of snow will set up. It’s just a first look; we’d rather trend higher if needed than say a bunch of snow and then not have near as much.” 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Ensembles still looking solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 To paraphrase Braveheart: "My Dad says we'll get some snow out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're $*%$ed." 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Cmon buddy throw some moisture back to the foothills . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neverSnowsLCSC Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I’ll be so happy with any accumulation.. but if we can just somehow extend the red zone a bit further south and west… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s been showing up to varying degrees on different runs across most modeling. If you’re between Greensboro and Greenville that is this storms *potential* fail mode And Upstate, SC...never freaking fails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 0z WN2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, timnc910 said: Not as good as the runs it has been putting out. The 6z wasn't terrible Ill take it all day long 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6z Euro not looking good. Slashed QPF in half many locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6z Euro looks good for a lot but looks like it cut qpf back in eastern areas. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 6z Euro not looking good. Slashed QPF in half many locations.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Euro trending drier and drier with each run for North Carolina. The big winners now is the Foothills and Upstate of South Carolina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rsheely88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Euro trending drier and drier with each run for North Carolina. The big winners now is the Upstate of South Carolina. Trends are not good for many. Upstate would have to rely heavily on the front end ULL snow and often times they underperform. This could be slipping away. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: . Wow. Didn’t see that coming for my area. Why did the qpf shift so far west? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The system itself looks like its getting locked into a close place as far as where the snow print will be. Now its a matter of how much qpf in your areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Euro trending drier and drier with each run for North Carolina. The big winners now is the Upstate of South Carolina. Yes! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I am not sure the track record of the AI Euro but it doesn't agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Wow. Didn’t see that coming for my area. Why did the qpf shift so far west? I can't see the 6z. The upper low most likely we negative tilt quicker that the 0z run. That would result it more qpf on the NW side of the upper low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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