The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[KChuck]

31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I feel strongly like someone will get hammered by a deform band here and it likely will be extremely under modeled. 

Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. 

[wncsnow]

Almost wonder if recon data was ingested that run, quite a change from 12Z. 

[USCG RS]

3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

2 days away 

Somehow I found a snow shovel in the upstate...

3 hours ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Sometimes the NAM nails it. I remember Winter Storm Nemo's insane snow amounts were first picked up by the NAM

I read a couple of studies which calimed potentially 9.5-10" an hour at one point. I lived in an are on long island where that deform band hit, I would not be shocked. In fact when that storm phased, I remember that it was so strong with so much energy that the lighting was nearly constant for thirty+ minutes. In fact, either the AFD or someone reputable on one of the forums showed how there was so much latent heat release from the lightning that it actually turned the heavy snow to sleet for a bit. 

2 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said:

This might be a stretch, and i may be wrong completely as well as my memory doesnt serve too well sonetimes...

 

But I feel like in 2009-2010 there was somewhat of a similar setup storm that the GFS latched onto and did not let go from 5 days out. It was the first one to really dig in on its solution and stuck to it, even trumping Dr. NO.  

I believe that is correct. GFS gets a nut once in a while. 

2 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Unlikely but it’s a feasible set up. 

Last snowfall here was 1977. 

Snow. In tampa. That would be somthing. 

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

GFS coming down closer to reality:

When your fever dream is still less than reality...

1 hour ago, mstr4j said:

That's the precip map that makes me slobber!  Been praying the last several runs that it verifies 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Very rarely. You see how we're acting? Lol

I should have moved down here sooner 

59 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Yep. We get dry slotted.  

Keep the mojo.

59 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said:

Pretty good analysis. He is normally spot on with atmospheric trends and analysis


.

Im glad he is back. 

47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Almost the entire state of NC with 6"+ lol

Wow.

37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The EURO just crushed almost the entire forum. Unbelievable 

Side note - Weren't you in the Northeast not too long ago? Or did you just visit the forum?

[Orange county]

4 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. 

Very easy in the rear view mirror

Otherwise no

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. 

CAMs typically will sniff them out. If globals are painting a broad 10”+ area you’d have to believe some of that would in actuality be in a singular band with higher totals. Usually how these work 

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. 

Yes - they are notoriously hard to model. Both from a QPF point of view as well as placement. Mesos are best for this, but even they are not great. This is especially true because on either side you get subsidence, so you can have a narrow band of very heavy rates which just sits and either side of the band receives very little. 

[Grayman]

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Its 9.99 a month. Thats what i have now. Ratios will be much higher. So dont use 10:1, use Kuchera.

Got ya. No membership and free version will not let me use Kuchera. Appreciate it. 

[Blacksburg Coach]

Checking out the GFS ensemble members and comparing it to the EURO , I believe the Euro is actually further west with the Low compared to the GFS, the precip shield isn't as strong though

[Blacksburg Coach]

Just now, Blacksburg Coach said:

Checking out the GFS ensemble members and comparing it to the EURO , I believe the Euro is actually further west with the Low compared to the GFS, the precip shield isn't as strong though

[suzook]

14 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

 

I read a couple of studies which calimed potentially 9.5-10" an hour at one point. I lived in an are on long island where that deform band hit, I would not be shocked. In fact when that storm phased, I remember that it was so strong with so much energy that the lighting was nearly constant for thirty+ minutes. In fact, either the AFD or someone reputable on one of the forums showed how there was so much latent heat release from the lightning that it actually turned the heavy snow to sleet for a bit. 

 

I remember that storm on LI. Visibility was actually zero. Solid white. Never saw anything even close to that in my life. Cars got stuck on rt 347 while they driving.

[Blacksburg Coach]

 

 

Disregard, The shift is there

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Interesting they have the max up north.

[USCG RS]

9 minutes ago, suzook said:

I remember that storm on LI. Visibility was actually zero. Solid white. Never saw anything even close to that in my life. Cars got stuck on rt 347 while they driving.

Yes. I remember helping those in stranded on 25 get to the Wal Mart over there. It was... I couldn't utilize the responder. 

[yotaman]

Was just reading our local NWS forecast and they are saying we have at least a 50% chance of blizzard conditions Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Didn't want to pop in here until tomorrow but man , I am starting to get excited. Please don't crush my hopes Mother Nature.

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Interesting they have the max up north.

That's through 7pm, so still more to go I believe.

[eyewall]

Just now, cbmclean said:

That's through 7pm, so still more to go I believe.

yes definitely 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

UK Ensembles improved at 18z

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

If Tampa gets snow and I don’t…

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Buddy1987]

SREF’s out yet for 0z?

[suzook]

11 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

If Tampa gets snow and I don’t…

Why do I wish this in some cruel way???? Lol...JK

[Spidyr2k]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

This was my first thundersnow event.  Tarboro, NC. My son's 2nd birthday was that Sunday, 02March.   We made chocolate snow cream in a huge bowl and let him eat/play in it. Shut down  the region for a week.  Core memory.  Hopefully, Gianna will give a new core memory. ❄

[Curious Onlooker]

1 minute ago, Spidyr2k said:

This was my first thundersnow event.  Tarboro, NC. My son's 2nd birthday was that Sunday, 02March.   We made chocolate snow cream in a huge bowl and let him eat/play in it. Shut down  the region for a week.  Core memory.  Hopefully, Gianna will give a new core memory. ❄

Agreed. I was a teenager in Greenville for that storm -- 20" of snow shut the town down for about a week.

[BornAgain13]

21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

SREF’s out yet for 0z?

Through 7 am Sunday. 

 

[wakegrrl]

Agreed. I was a teenager in Greenville for that storm -- 20" of snow shut the town down for about a week.

I was a teenager in Elizabeth City. The front of our house faced NE and by the time it was over, we had a wall of snow out the front door taller than the eaves.


.

[BornAgain13]

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Through 7 am Sunday. 

 

Remember this is only 10:1. So it would be more for sure!

[Blacksburg Coach]

 

 

Range of possibilities per SREF