KChuck Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I feel strongly like someone will get hammered by a deform band here and it likely will be extremely under modeled. Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Almost wonder if recon data was ingested that run, quite a change from 12Z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: 2 days away Somehow I found a snow shovel in the upstate... 3 hours ago, Blacksburg Coach said: Sometimes the NAM nails it. I remember Winter Storm Nemo's insane snow amounts were first picked up by the NAM I read a couple of studies which calimed potentially 9.5-10" an hour at one point. I lived in an are on long island where that deform band hit, I would not be shocked. In fact when that storm phased, I remember that it was so strong with so much energy that the lighting was nearly constant for thirty+ minutes. In fact, either the AFD or someone reputable on one of the forums showed how there was so much latent heat release from the lightning that it actually turned the heavy snow to sleet for a bit. 2 hours ago, UnionCountyNCWX said: This might be a stretch, and i may be wrong completely as well as my memory doesnt serve too well sonetimes... But I feel like in 2009-2010 there was somewhat of a similar setup storm that the GFS latched onto and did not let go from 5 days out. It was the first one to really dig in on its solution and stuck to it, even trumping Dr. NO. I believe that is correct. GFS gets a nut once in a while. 2 hours ago, TPAwx said: Unlikely but it’s a feasible set up. Last snowfall here was 1977. Snow. In tampa. That would be somthing. 2 hours ago, eyewall said: GFS coming down closer to reality: When your fever dream is still less than reality... 1 hour ago, mstr4j said: That's the precip map that makes me slobber! Been praying the last several runs that it verifies 1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said: Very rarely. You see how we're acting? Lol I should have moved down here sooner 59 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: Yep. We get dry slotted. Keep the mojo. 59 minutes ago, Rsheely88 said: Pretty good analysis. He is normally spot on with atmospheric trends and analysis . Im glad he is back. 47 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Almost the entire state of NC with 6"+ lol Wow. 37 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: The EURO just crushed almost the entire forum. Unbelievable Side note - Weren't you in the Northeast not too long ago? Or did you just visit the forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orange county Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, KChuck said: Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. Very easy in the rear view mirror Otherwise no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, KChuck said: Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. CAMs typically will sniff them out. If globals are painting a broad 10”+ area you’d have to believe some of that would in actuality be in a singular band with higher totals. Usually how these work 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, KChuck said: Serious question..don't they go hand in hand??? I always thought deform bands were hard to accurately model. Yes - they are notoriously hard to model. Both from a QPF point of view as well as placement. Mesos are best for this, but even they are not great. This is especially true because on either side you get subsidence, so you can have a narrow band of very heavy rates which just sits and either side of the band receives very little. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Its 9.99 a month. Thats what i have now. Ratios will be much higher. So dont use 10:1, use Kuchera. Got ya. No membership and free version will not let me use Kuchera. Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Checking out the GFS ensemble members and comparing it to the EURO , I believe the Euro is actually further west with the Low compared to the GFS, the precip shield isn't as strong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Blacksburg Coach said: Checking out the GFS ensemble members and comparing it to the EURO , I believe the Euro is actually further west with the Low compared to the GFS, the precip shield isn't as strong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I read a couple of studies which calimed potentially 9.5-10" an hour at one point. I lived in an are on long island where that deform band hit, I would not be shocked. In fact when that storm phased, I remember that it was so strong with so much energy that the lighting was nearly constant for thirty+ minutes. In fact, either the AFD or someone reputable on one of the forums showed how there was so much latent heat release from the lightning that it actually turned the heavy snow to sleet for a bit. I remember that storm on LI. Visibility was actually zero. Solid white. Never saw anything even close to that in my life. Cars got stuck on rt 347 while they driving. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Disregard, The shift is there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Interesting they have the max up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, suzook said: I remember that storm on LI. Visibility was actually zero. Solid white. Never saw anything even close to that in my life. Cars got stuck on rt 347 while they driving. Yes. I remember helping those in stranded on 25 get to the Wal Mart over there. It was... I couldn't utilize the responder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Was just reading our local NWS forecast and they are saying we have at least a 50% chance of blizzard conditions Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Didn't want to pop in here until tomorrow but man , I am starting to get excited. Please don't crush my hopes Mother Nature. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, eyewall said: Interesting they have the max up north. That's through 7pm, so still more to go I believe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, cbmclean said: That's through 7pm, so still more to go I believe. yes definitely 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 UK Ensembles improved at 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 29 Author Share Posted January 29 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: If Tampa gets snow and I don’t… 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 SREF’s out yet for 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: If Tampa gets snow and I don’t… Why do I wish this in some cruel way???? Lol...JK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: This was my first thundersnow event. Tarboro, NC. My son's 2nd birthday was that Sunday, 02March. We made chocolate snow cream in a huge bowl and let him eat/play in it. Shut down the region for a week. Core memory. Hopefully, Gianna will give a new core memory. ❄ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curious Onlooker Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Spidyr2k said: This was my first thundersnow event. Tarboro, NC. My son's 2nd birthday was that Sunday, 02March. We made chocolate snow cream in a huge bowl and let him eat/play in it. Shut down the region for a week. Core memory. Hopefully, Gianna will give a new core memory. ❄ Agreed. I was a teenager in Greenville for that storm -- 20" of snow shut the town down for about a week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: SREF’s out yet for 0z? Through 7 am Sunday. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakegrrl Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Agreed. I was a teenager in Greenville for that storm -- 20" of snow shut the town down for about a week.I was a teenager in Elizabeth City. The front of our house faced NE and by the time it was over, we had a wall of snow out the front door taller than the eaves. . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Through 7 am Sunday. Remember this is only 10:1. So it would be more for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Range of possibilities per SREF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now