The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[WXNewton]

The trend on the GFS AI is really impressive...

[KyleEverett]

12 minutes ago, DTP said:

We will have better luck on this storm....you are in a pretty good spot for this type of setup

We're a bit too close to the edge still for comfort. We've had this forecast before and we end up with a dusting and that's my fear.

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS another Big Hit! It did shunt south a tad but it could be just noise. @Buddy1987 you still get hit with almost a foot to.

[Ravens94]

This is starting to scream 1980 more and more.  GFS is trending south the last 3 runs.

[mstr4j]

Well...happy for ENC...Upstate folks out through Atl...love you guys but time to hang it up on a potential big one for us.  Here's to next time!  @Brick Tamlandbuild me an igloo for posterity, maybe it'll end our drought next year! Hell, might as well build a whole igloo apartment complex with that amount! 

[NYweatherguy]

Big swing and a miss for the Atlanta metro. Hopefully we get the western trend/earlier phase solution in subsequent runs...

[Buddy1987]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS another Big Hit! It did shunt south a tad but it could be just noise. @Buddy1987 you still get hit with almost a foot to.

I wish I could share in the enthusiasm brother.. I don't have a good feeling at all.. I think as we get closer the trend actually continues to head more south and east. Your area imo will do quite a bit better than up this way this go around. 

[Aleksey]

Early guess at 36 has me say the trends at 12Z are not western folks friends put it that way. Don't like the fact things are tending to stay more positively tilted and east.

Not worried. It’s the GFS lol and the GFS is the only model this far east. Euro is the best at this range and a lot more west. We’ll see, but I’m not worried about the GFS being so far east, I highly doubt that. The GFS was so far east it gives Athens, GA and pretty much all of the coast of GA nothing. Euro has been consistently west and laying 2-3” for Athens. I don’t buy the GFS, especially after how awful it was last storm and the weekend before that. It has the lowest verification scores inside 72 hours of any global model. Wait and see what the Euro does. Either way NC/SC are in a great spot regardless of which model you wanna hug. But Athens, GA is definitely getting snow out of this one and it’s comical how far east the GFS is


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[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@wncsnow @BornAgain13 @olafminesaw @NorthHillsWx what you guys seeing? Confluence def a thing thus far at 12Z from a couple models but precip shield still looks intact at 72 from last run.

Fundamentally not much at all has changed across modeling. I think we’re now honing in on the specifics of where the coastal cranks, and a possible interaction with multiple areas of SLP. Trough digging and going neutral to negative captures the southern stream energy (textbook) pulling everything to coast wrapping up a bomb like GFS is insisting. I’m at a loss for how perfect that run was 

[Northern Foothills Snowman]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Good run for us western folks too. Less of a precip minima over the escarpment 

Are the snow maps based on a 10 to 1 ratio?

[StantonParkHoya]

When are our players on the field? Today?

[Buddy1987]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Fundamentally not much at all has changed across modeling. I think we’re now honing in on the specifics of where the coastal cranks, and a possible interaction with multiple areas of SLP. Trough digging and going neutral to negative captures the southern stream energy (textbook) pulling everything to coast wrapping up a bomb like GFS is insisting. I’m at a loss for how perfect that run was 

Do you feel like the models may be underestimating the precip shield or is it going to be more congealed, based around the baroclinity and then throwing it back? The wild card here is obv the ULL. Stronger that stays during it's trek of traversing better opportunity for folks further away from SLP forming off Hatteras.

[ADB83]

GFS really going to stick to their guns here. That is a very nice statewide win and here in Winston-Salem I would gladly take that snow and let the coast celebrate those big numbers.


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[Ravens94]

CMC big hit

[DTP]

16 minutes ago, KyleEverett said:

We're a bit too close to the edge still for comfort. We've had this forecast before and we end up with a dusting and that's my fear.

Best analog i can think off the top of my head is Jan 01'...we had thundersnow in the Upstate under the ULL...I lived in Rock Hill at the time, and we got 4-6"....temp profile here is 5-7 degrees colder on this storm if my memory serves correctly 

With the location of the trough to our south, it is a good to great setup for the E Upstate as long as you have a negative tilt....I am quite a bit more confident after seeing the models when metadata from the sampling last night was ingested

 

I feel yout pain- it is like night and day living down here v the other side of 85- I lived on the N side of CLT/Harrisburg for 15 years before moving to TC- we would typically have at least 2 good storms a year up there

[Upstate Tiger]

CMC, GFS, and NAM all with basically the same evoluation.  CMC is best for western members.  

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC run gonna rival GFS

[Buddy1987]

CMC throwing back precip significantly at 12Z compared to 0Z

[SUNYGRAD]

Let the thundersnow commence.

[ADB83]

Raleigh is in position A. CMC looks like a big hit for them too. Congratulations to the coastal folks. I would take the GFS at the CMC in a heartbeat in the Triad and gladly forget the NAM existed


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[Ravens94]

CMC wobbling south too. Low is starting to bomb off MB/ILM too. Starting to get excited

CMC does have some obvious CF but the trend is there

[DTP]

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Do you feel like the models may be underestimating the precip shield or is it going to be more congealed, based around the baroclinity and then throwing it back? The wild card here is obv the ULL. Stronger that stays during it's trek of traversing better opportunity for folks further away from SLP forming off Hatteras.

There will be a sharp cutoff on the western edge from this type of storm- eastern side of these type of setups outperform

[Aleksey]

CMC, GFS, and NAM all with basically the same evoluation.  CMC is best for western members.  

Euro is good for western members too. GFS kinda on its own for Western members. I’m talking Athens, GA area west. Canadian has been consistent and hasn’t budged at all for us over this way and the euro has trended west every run since yesterday for us.


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[PenguinLover]

Guess it's still in the cards for N GA 

[Omen]

[NorthHillsWx]

The deformation band possible with this system gets the hair on the back of my neck to stand up. This is the setup to have a deformation band that rivals some of the all timers

[WinstonSalemArlington]

6 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

CMC big hit

Somebody pinch me

[Ravens94]

There's going to be some incredibly heavy bands 

[Omen]

@Ephesians2I'm getting nervous for those of us in the Lynchburg area. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, Ravens94 said:

There's going to be some incredibly heavy bands 

Not sure that can be shared on a family friendly forum