The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[cbmclean]

3 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Wrong still lol. We had models missing REAL-TIME analysis this weekend. This threat is far from dead.

The NAM still insists I got snow on 1/18.

[ILMRoss]

21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I do like that the AI GFS has been trending wetter and wetter.

i've had a tough time contextualizing this storm. multiple models are on their own discrete trends, with the aigfs being one of the fastest movers

[BornAgain13]

12z EPS is improved over 6z.

[BornAgain13]

12z UK ensemble also went west of 6z. An improvement 

[lilj4425]

Starting to trend back west and in the right direction which is good to see. Baby steps. With how bad it’s been here for winter weather the last few years, I would be just fine and happy with a 2-4 inch snowfall and consider that a win. 

[neverSnowsLCSC]

Getting snow two years in a row would be a real treat, all things considered. I'm just enjoying being able to track stuff at all.

[greendave]

we wait.

[BornAgain13]

12z CMC Ensemble very similar to 0z. Not much change with that. Solid

[wncsnow]

Is Google Gemini high?

 

The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina.

12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC

The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

• Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits.

• The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation.

[ADB83]

Is Google Gemini high?
 
The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina.

12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC

The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

• Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits.
• The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation.

Well, they lost me when they said significant buzz. This is the first I’ve ever heard of the 12Z NEXT run


.

[wncsnow]

The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina.

12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC

The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

• Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits.

• The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation.

• Sleet/Ice Gradient: The 12Z WN2 map shows a very tight "gradient line" along the I-26 corridor south toward Hendersonville. South of this line, the map transitions from white/purple (snow) to pink/orange, signifying a heavy sleet and freezing rain threat.

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Key Data Points from 12Z Run

Parameter	12Z WN2 Data (Asheville)	Change from 00Z Run
Snow-to-Liquid Ratio	$12:1$	Slightly wetter/heavier snow
Precipitation Onset	Sat 7:30 AM	Accelerated by 1.5 hours
Peak Hourly Rate	1.8 inches/hour	Increased intensity
Max Wind Gusts	42 mph	Higher (Blizzard-like conditions)

---

WN2 vs. Global Models (GFS/Euro)

The WN2 is currently the "aggressive leader." The European AI (AIFS) model is in broad agreement, but the traditional GFS (American) model is still slightly further offshore with the coastal low.

Meteorologist Note: Local experts like Brad Panovich are advising residents not to fixate on specific inch counts yet, but the WN2's consistency over the last three runs suggests this is a "high-confidence" event for heavy accumulation in Asheville.

The "Refreeze" Factor

The 12Z map is particularly concerning for Sunday morning. It shows a 100% probability of temperatures dropping to 6°F in Asheville by 4:00 AM Sunday. This would result in a total "flash freeze" of the 8–10 inches of slush/snow, potentially locking roads and power lines in ice for several days.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

Well, they lost me when they said significant buzz. This is the first I’ve ever heard of the 12Z NEXT run


.

Its the Weathernext 2 model by Google that many have been referencing lately.

[Snowncanes]

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence is increasing in the potential for a
coastal low to bring a period of snow and bitter cold to central NC
sometime between Friday night and Sunday, though details on timing,
amounts, and impacts remain uncertain.

Medium-range guidance and ensembles continue to signal the
development of a very favorable synoptic pattern for a coastal low
developing late this week into the weekend. A mid/upper level trough
will dive southward across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys
before cutting off just west of the Appalachian mountains.  This
would support a surface low developing along the Gulf shore, then
sweeping across northern Florida, and deepen off the Carolina coast
on Saturday bringing precipitation to Central NC.

Recent model trends favor a slightly farther west track of the upper
low and surface cyclone, which has increased chances for snow inland
across central NC. With the Arctic air mass already in place, and
forecast soundings showing no warm nose aloft, precipitation would
fall primarily as snow, with no sleet or freezing rain mixing in at
this time. As the upper low moves across the region Saturday into
Sunday northerly flow should help keep the cold air across central
NC through the weekend during the precipitation.

While this Miller-A storm setup is one of the more favorable for
snowfall across the area, significant accumulations are not
guaranteed. Snowfall amounts will depend heavily on the location,
timing, and interaction of the northern and southern stream flow.
Another major factor in play is the location and proximity of the
coastal low offshore.

At this time, confidence is highest for frigid temperatures over the
weekend mixed with a chance of wintry precipitation as early as
Friday night through Sunday morning. However, it is too early to
pinpoint where the heavier snowfall will fall and where the narrow
deformation band would be most likely.

RAH seems fairly bullish

[ADB83]

This is my preferred method.


.

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Its the Weathernext 2 model by Google that many have been referencing lately.

Do we have snowfall maps out for it yet? Sounds like a big hit

[ADB83]

Its the Weathernext 2 model by Google that many have been referencing lately.

I know the model, but I had not seen any talk about the 12Z run


.

[wncsnow]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Do we have snowfall maps out for it yet? Sounds like a big hit

Its late producing maps so I asked Gemini. I hope its not trolling me 

[SouthboundYank]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Is Google Gemini high?

The 12Z run of the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) model is generating significant buzz in the meteorological community today, Tuesday, January 27. It has refined the "bullseye" for the Saturday, January 31 storm, and the maps are showing a classic but intense setup for Western North Carolina.

12Z Snow Map Analysis: Asheville & WNC

The 12Z run (the midday update) has consolidated the heavy precipitation directly over the Blue Ridge Escarpment.

• Snowfall Accumulation Map: The map displays a wide swath of 8–11 inches for the Asheville city limits.

• The "Purple Zone": Higher elevations just north and west of Asheville (including Weaverville, Mars Hill, and the high country toward Boone) are shaded in dark purple, indicating 12–15 inches of accumulation.

The past two mornings, I've fed Google Gemini this exact prompt:  "What's the latest from WeatherNext 2.0 concerning the storm in Myrtle Beach this weekend?" And (again, for MB) came back with what I believe is a fair assessment of what could be potentially be arriving Sat PM:

The latest 12z model runs (as of January 27, 2026) have dialed back slightly on the "blockbuster" snow potential for Myrtle Beach, but they have significantly ramped up the concern for extreme cold and a possible wintry mix late Saturday into Sunday morning.

Here is the updated breakdown of what the models are signaling:

1. The Storm Track (Saturday Night - Sunday)

The models are now converging on a "Coastal Low" that will track further offshore than initially hoped for by snow-lovers.

• The Transition: Instead of a pure snow event on Saturday morning, the 12z data suggests Saturday will likely remain overcast and raw with a high of 38°F.

• The Window: Precipitation chances increase to 67% late Saturday night (after 10:00 PM) as the low-pressure system passes. This is the critical window where rain is expected to transition into sleet or light snow.

• Sunday Morning: Models show lingering moisture as the Arctic air truly arrives. Expect a potential for light snow flurries early Sunday morning before the system moves out.

2. The "Deep Freeze" (The Higher Certainty Event)

Regardless of how many flakes fall, the models are 100% certain about a historic drop in temperatures.

• Lows: Saturday night will drop to 23°F. Sunday night is projected to be even colder, reaching 18°F to 21°F.

• Highs: Sunday will struggle to reach 32°F (freezing), which is extremely rare for Myrtle Beach.

• Winds: North winds at 15–20 mph will keep wind chills in the single digits to low teens all weekend.

---

Weekend Comparison: 12z Run vs. Previous Data

Metric	Previous Run	Latest 12z Run	Trend
Snow Timing	Saturday Morning	Sat Night / Sun AM	Delayed
Precip Chance	45%	67%	Increasing
Sunday Low	21°F	18°F	Colder
Accumulation	Dusting possible	Trace to 0.5"	Stable

[SouthboundYank]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

This is my preferred method.

LOL. You, and about half to 2/3'rds of the Mid Atlantic sub...   

[wncsnow]

As an AI, I cannot directly "display" a live image file or a proprietary dashboard like the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) DeepMind interface. However, I can provide a high-fidelity "text-map" description based on the 12Z WN2 snow accumulation data for North Carolina as of today, January 27.

The 12Z run is striking because it shows a very narrow, intense "ribbon" of heavy snow directly over the Blue Ridge.

WN2 12Z Snow Accumulation Map: Summary

Region	Map Color/Shading	WN2 Snow Total (inches)
Boone / Banner Elk	Dark Purple (Highest)	14–18"
Asheville / Weaverville	Deep Purple	9–12"
Waynesville / Sylvia	Deep Purple	8–11"
Hendersonville / Saluda	Light Purple to Pink	4–7" (Sleet mix begins)
Charlotte / Hickory	Pink to Orange (Ice/Sleet)	1–3" (Major Ice Threat)

[StantonParkHoya]

Just now, wncsnow said:

As an AI, I cannot directly "display" a live image file or a proprietary dashboard like the WeatherNext 2 (WN2) DeepMind interface. However, I can provide a high-fidelity "text-map" description based on the 12Z WN2 snow accumulation data for North Carolina as of today, January 27.

The 12Z run is striking because it shows a very narrow, intense "ribbon" of heavy snow directly over the Blue Ridge.

WN2 12Z Snow Accumulation Map: Summary

Region	Map Color/Shading	WN2 Snow Total (inches)
Boone / Banner Elk	Dark Purple (Highest)	14–18"
Asheville / Weaverville	Deep Purple	9–12"
Waynesville / Sylvia	Deep Purple	8–11"
Hendersonville / Saluda	Light Purple to Pink	4–7" (Sleet mix begins)
Charlotte / Hickory	Pink to Orange (Ice/Sleet)	1–3" (Major Ice Threat)

Lol what a bogus output

[BooneWX]

Still have a few more minutes, it’s not out yet

[wncsnow]

Gotta love AI.

[AirNelson39]

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

[wncsnow]

Just now, AirNelson39 said:

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

Oh I'm definitely cautious. Just thought it would be interesting to see if there is indeed a sliver of heavier precip over the Blue Ridge like it said. 

[olafminesaw]

1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said:

I’ve noticed Gemini has been doing some weird things and getting confused with the model runs. I almost wonder if it’s pulling from a different day or different run. Given that it can’t output a map I’m a little cautious with it after some odd outputs.

It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro

[Upstate Tiger]

Pretty concise discussion from GSP...

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=ci&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro

That is a fair question, and I appreciate the check—I am definitely looking at the January 31 forecast, not the storm that just passed.

The reason they seem similar is that we are in a "repeat" pattern. Winter Storm Fern (which just finished yesterday, Monday, Jan 26) was a massive event that hit the Carolinas hard. The WeatherNext 2 (WN2) 12Z run is now focusing on the next system—a new Southern Stream low—developing for this coming Saturday.

Here is how I am distinguishing the two to ensure I’m not mixing up the data:

The "New" Storm (Jan 31) vs. Fern (Jan 24–26)

• The Track: Fern was a broader system that dragged a lot of ice through the Piedmont early on. The Jan 31 storm in the 12Z WN2 run is a more classic Miller Type-A coastal low, which typically results in heavier snow for the mountains (like Asheville) compared to Fern’s ice-heavy profile.

• Pre-existing Conditions: The 12Z run for Saturday specifically factors in the snowpack and ice left behind by Fern. This is why the WN2 is predicting such "extreme" impacts for Marion and Asheville—it's forecasting new snow falling on the 1–3 inches of ice/slush Fern left behind.

• The Upper Level Low (ULL): As we discussed, the ULL for this weekend’s storm is currently still out West. Fern’s ULL has already moved off the Northeast coast and is currently hammering New England.

Why the 12Z Run is "Aggressive"

The 12Z run isn't just "remembering" Fern; it’s using the arctic air mass that Fern pulled down to set the stage for Saturday. Because Fern "opened the door" for the cold, the WN2 sees a much higher probability that Saturday’s moisture stays as snow for Asheville.

Current Signal: The 12Z WN2 shows 88% confidence that Asheville remains below freezing for the entire Saturday event, whereas during Fern, there were several hours where the temperature flirted with 33°F.

 

[UnionCountyNCWX]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

It's getting confused with the last storm I think. It mentions a warm nose and considerable freezing rain threat for NC when I ask it about the 12 Euro

At least in that case its accurate in predicting past storms lol

[RaleighNC]

Assume errors in every AI output and factcheck the hell out of it with actual sources. 

I had ChatGPT flat out invent a quote and a case the other day.