The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[strongwxnc]

10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I think this will come down to some of the mesoscale models with-in the 12-36 hr timeframe before we really know the dynamics of the ULL. Globals are going to paint a broad path but the hi-res models will hopefully nail any enhancement starting on the lee-side. Long ways to go with many solutions still on the table.

Yup. No absolutes is winter weather at this time frame.   

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing 

Wasn’t that how Jan 2022 worked out

[BooneWX]

Everyone down in the dumps and here I am browsing options at local Can-Am dealers 

[olafminesaw]

As it stands:

Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done)

Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model

No phase: Euro, ICON

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[ADB83]

Well, at least the possibility of it going north is pretty much dead lol.


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[BornAgain13]

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate the NAM. But it looked like it has potential at the end?

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

Well, at least the possibility of it going north is pretty much dead lol.


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NEVER EVER UTTER THESE WORDS

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate the NAM. But it looked like it has potential at the end?

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM 

[Orange county]

Seems to me in the last 40 years we have gotten 3-4 inches out of a ULL-maybe once ?

[BornAgain13]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM 

Consider me not smart lol

[SnowDawg]

Definitely gonna need more moisture back this way than the Euro showed not to just lose all of it to virga given how dry the initial airmass is going to be.

[olafminesaw]

[KChuck]

54 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Yup. No absolutes is winter weather at this time frame.   

Not too many at 24-48 hours either. 

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Not too many at 24-48 hours either. 

Wrong still lol. We had models missing REAL-TIME analysis this weekend. This threat is far from dead.

[PeeDeeWx]

5 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Not too many at 24-48 hours either. 

NAM did really well for my area last weekend. Better than the others.

[olafminesaw]

ICON a step closer towards phasing but not quite there

[BooneWX]

Michael Clark says perk up. Hopefully he’s as correct as he was last weekend.


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[Upstate Tiger]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Michael Clark says perk up. Hopefully he’s as correct as he was last weekend.


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So we like Bam again?  Just want to make sure I am not hating the wrong people...

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

So we like Bam again?  Just want to make sure I am not hating the wrong people...

Like him or not, he’s really been on-point since at least last summer. 

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Like him or not, he’s really been on-point since at least last summer. 

He nailed last week's storm...

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

He nailed last week's storm...

Predicting a storm trends north and west is low-hanging fruit

[calculus1]

39 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I really like the fact that this weekend is compared to the 12/26/2010 analog. If this storm develops anything like that Christmas storm, most all of NC will be most happy.

[Upstate Tiger]

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Predicting a storm trends north and west is low-hanging fruit

Let's hope that trend comes to fruition this time as well...

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

I really like the fact that this weekend is compared to the 12/26/2010 analog. If this storm develops anything like that Christmas storm, most all of NC will be most happy.

I was being greedy and hoping it would be more anomalous than that storm ala March '80. We had '72, '80, and '89 within a 20 year span and totally skewed coastal NC folks on snowstorms. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

When does next model run? 

[DTP]

2 hours ago, BooneWX said:

On the ULL: if that becomes our primary way to score, hold onto your seats. Globals will be absolutely horrendous these next two days. We could see runs dropping a foot and then dropping nothing every 6 hrs. CAMs will have to come into range to provide clarity on that particular setup. Trying to figure out moisture/deform bands in the winter time with an ULL is like trying to pinpoint where a pop up storm will occur 2 days out in the summer

This...wait for more metadata to be ingested by all of the globals and mesos....take a deep breath- pretty much the only takeaway from any model run to this pt is an elevated probability of snowfall Friday and Saturday in the Carolinas, as well as some serious cold.  The models are going off the tails of probability on both sides at current without much in the way of ingested metadata- the wild swings will not stop until that occurs....think of the model data in terms of three separate normal distributions that are interconnected.  The middle normal distribution is the ensemble mean.  Robust predictive value will rest somewhere between 50d (the center; 50= 0 SD from mean), and ~37.5d of each wing of the ND. Outside of this envelope- 25d is the middle of the wing, 12.5d and lower the tail.  Now plug in time to the equation- at 96-120 hrs and little meta (actually occurrence) data, you can draw two separate normal distributions with the 50d mark for the separate distributions at 12.5d of the ensemble mean.  This is what you are looking at currently- a really wide range of generated outcomes that form the middle (model) normal distribution  The normal distributions on the tails get pulled inward toward the center of the ensemble mean as more time passes, moving the center of the model data sets inward toward the 50d mark of the main distribution as more metadata is ingested, therefore making the model trends more robust the closer you are to an event.  The ensemble mean will also shift one direction or the other throughout as well as more data is ingested- this creates the final envelope of robust data that can really be drilled down

 

25d is the most susceptible point to model volatility in normal distribution (any predictive model- not just weather) - also why the models tend to "lose" a storm 2 days out (temporarily)- as the 2 semi-predictive data set means (more like a 50d line of best fit amongst solutions) that started on the tails (2 separate normal distributions) cross the 25d (25 standard deviations from the mean) area, they amplify all of the solution sets away from the mean that are not metadata derived.  Just the way the math works....best way I can think of to explain it- just keep this in mind when you are looking at any potential model outcomes  4-5 days (or more) in the future 

Like having a piece of cardboard and shooting 1' left, and 1' right with buckshot at hr 120

[Leesville Wx Hawk]

6 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I really like the fact that this weekend is compared to the 12/26/2010 analog. If this storm develops anything like that Christmas storm, most all of NC will be most happy.

That was Raleigh proper east as I recall for the big snow.

[BornAgain13]

AI GFS is a big hit! FWIW

[Orange county]

2 minutes ago, Leesville Wx Hawk said:

That was Raleigh proper east as I recall for the big snow.

I have constant arguements with my GF on this storm lol

She lives in Garner -I was in Chapel Hill at the time and don't remember squat for a storm