The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[strongwxnc]

10 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

I think this will come down to some of the mesoscale models with-in the 12-36 hr timeframe before we really know the dynamics of the ULL. Globals are going to paint a broad path but the hi-res models will hopefully nail any enhancement starting on the lee-side. Long ways to go with many solutions still on the table.

Yup. No absolutes is winter weather at this time frame.   

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

There's also the possibility of a partial phase that would enhance the ULL snowfall and then hit coastal areas hard (particularly along a line East of greenville NC to Hampton Roads). I think that's probably slightly more likely than the Euro solution of a complete whiff on the phase and much more likely than the full phase the GFS is showing 

Wasn’t that how Jan 2022 worked out

[BooneWX]

Everyone down in the dumps and here I am browsing options at local Can-Am dealers 

[olafminesaw]

As it stands:

Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done)

Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model

No phase: Euro, ICON

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[ADB83]

Well, at least the possibility of it going north is pretty much dead lol.


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[BornAgain13]

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate the NAM. But it looked like it has potential at the end?

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

Well, at least the possibility of it going north is pretty much dead lol.


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NEVER EVER UTTER THESE WORDS

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate the NAM. But it looked like it has potential at the end?

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM 

[Orange county]

Seems to me in the last 40 years we have gotten 3-4 inches out of a ULL-maybe once ?

[BornAgain13]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM 

Consider me not smart lol

[SnowDawg]

Definitely gonna need more moisture back this way than the Euro showed not to just lose all of it to virga given how dry the initial airmass is going to be.

[olafminesaw]

[KChuck]

54 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Yup. No absolutes is winter weather at this time frame.   

Not too many at 24-48 hours either. 

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Not too many at 24-48 hours either. 

Wrong still lol. We had models missing REAL-TIME analysis this weekend. This threat is far from dead.

[PeeDeeWx]

5 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Not too many at 24-48 hours either. 

NAM did really well for my area last weekend. Better than the others.

[olafminesaw]

ICON a step closer towards phasing but not quite there

[BooneWX]

Michael Clark says perk up. Hopefully he’s as correct as he was last weekend.


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[Upstate Tiger]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Michael Clark says perk up. Hopefully he’s as correct as he was last weekend.


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So we like Bam again?  Just want to make sure I am not hating the wrong people...

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

So we like Bam again?  Just want to make sure I am not hating the wrong people...

Like him or not, he’s really been on-point since at least last summer. 

[Upstate Tiger]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Like him or not, he’s really been on-point since at least last summer. 

He nailed last week's storm...