February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Jebman]

Its going to be so ice age frigid in Texas into Feb 23 that I need an entire new wardrobe. Maybe the AMOC stopped altogether.

I have officially given up all hope of Spring in the Deep South in 2026. It's been repealed.

[Duca892]

GFS continues to advertise at least something. Clipper, miller B? Idk I’m stupid as shit. Around the 7th-9th period

[Heisy]

When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in.

Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th

The 00z OP run had snow down into
The southern mid Atlantic for this one.

End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up.

This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see…

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, Heisy said:

When is the met community as a whole going to care more about the Euro Ai vs the OP. This next event is another case study for it. Euro has been bouncing around run after run. It’s finally starting to get consistent, meanwhile euro AI has basically locked in as it usually does in this range outside minor ticks. It’s verifying better at H5, only caveat is its resolution gives it issues with QPF so you have to factor it in.

Anyways, euro Ai has a nor’easter for the 6th

The 00z OP run had snow down into
The southern mid Atlantic for this one.

End of 6z Op looks like it was about to brew something up.

This one could have BL temp issues, need to get the low out of the lakes, but we’ll see…

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve had my eye on the feb 4-5 system. Again the trof is pos tilted, but it might have enough moisture upfront moving w to e

 

20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Next chance seems like a weak wave around Thursday next week? It’s actually been fairly consistent on guidance. Sort of just looks like a cold front passage but antecedent airmass is cold enough to be snow for us potentially. 

If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”?

[JenkinsJinkies]

Everybody here is claiming snow storms. So I’m going to go very long range and claim an 80 degree day sometime in the week after Easter. We’ll have to torch eventually and what better time than early April? We’ll have earned it by then.

[Terpeast]

45 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

If we’re claiming storms, I claim next week! We can call it the “WxUSAF shitty frontal passage”?

It's yours. Are you gonna deliver?

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It's yours. Are you gonna deliver?

Probably not 

[baltosquid]

It looks like a front for the 4th/5th now but tbh it is going deeper and deeper on the Euro AI, its ensembles, and the Euro’s deterministic ensembles. The spoilers to me are the ridge being too far east (again) and a possible lakes low. Given how noisy the NS has been I think the latter is movable in both a good and bad direction. The ridge feels like it will be more stubborn. But I think there’s upside here.