Paleocene Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, Ji said: a whiff south is still a possiblity. I counted 20 members that had very little precip in our area here is one panel yeah if the op euro is just chasing the AIFS which has consistently been south we're cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 33 minutes ago, Ji said: its the whole county bro...eastern and western(where we live) You should just move to the old WestPark golf course so you can officially say you live in Western Loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Heisy said: I did a little comparison on all the models this morning. All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it. Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast. Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 location This interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo So, take a look at the ICON. Compared to 6z EUro, it looks about the same so far and I think it followed your scenario...just don't know if it'll turn out the same or as good tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 looks like icon is doing what we want. has the vort to the NE getting out the way. Then you see our northern branch wanting to drop in and phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said: looks like icon is doing what we want. has the vort to the NE getting out the way. Then you see our northern branch wanting to drop in and phase Looks like it'll be warmer than the Euro tho :/ But...ICON and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 North branch doesnt dive in this run, Icon wont pull it off but its damn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Looks like it'll be warmer than the Euro tho :/ But...ICON and all. It's a lot closer to something, though. @soadforecasterx's quick synoptic breakdown post above is a good representation of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 ICON ultimately ends up suppressed close tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: You should just move to the old WestPark golf course so you can officially say you live in Western Loudoun it looks like loudoun is 25 miles wide. I measured to leesburg which is like 13 miles. that puts me in western 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: ICON ultimately ends up suppressedclosed tho suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, Ji said: suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z Just a slight over adjustment. It'll be back next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, bncho said: If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant. Wait when was the rant? Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, Ji said: suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z So...suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Icon was no to far from the phase though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 24 minutes ago, Paleocene said: yeah if the op euro is just chasing the AIFS which has consistently been south we're cooked. Yeah and we've seen these AI ops refuse to move once they get locked on an idea, smh I'd love to see a positive trend on those in the next day or so to have more confidence in our chances... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 21 minutes ago, Ji said: it looks like loudoun is 25 miles wide. I measured to leesburg which is like 13 miles. that puts me in western sorry aldie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, Paleocene said: Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet! 6" in Salisbury and 0" in Snow Hill...sure Jan 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Careful, he might challenge you to a duel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So basically…canceling winter on Feb 10 when lakes are frozen, is dumb. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 4 hours ago, Paleocene said: Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet! Atmospheric Memory? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 SO GFS is much further South with that h5 football..now centered over N. NH/VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 AI GFS is suppressed. Double sucks because I was hoping for rain if we didn't get snow. SryNtSry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said: AI GFS is suppressed. Double sucks because I was hoping for rain if we didn't get snow. SryNtSry. We may be in a drought forever lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 It's funny the difference in location of that s/w up north between this run and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: We may be in a drought forever lol GFS will probably be suppressed too from what I'm seeing now. Not 100% tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Yup...lol. we gone from warm cutter to cold cirrus. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup...lol. we gone from warm running to cold cirrus. the Euro AI is the trend setter---and then all the other models follow. What a disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup...lol. we gone from warm running to cold cirrus. We just need the model to meet at the benchmark and we are good to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Ji said: the Euro AI is the trend setter---and then all the other models follow. What a disaster It's getting to the point of...do we even have to look at other models? I feel like with the last few events it's always a step ahead. It's ensembles snow maps are a mess though they always show a lot of snow for no reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Euro AI has just been deadly, really unless otherwise proven wrong seems like the model to trust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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