February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Paleocene]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

a whiff south is still a possiblity. I counted 20 members that had very little precip in our area

here is one panel

 

yeah if the op euro is just chasing the AIFS which has consistently been south we're cooked.

[aldie 22]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

its the whole county bro...eastern and western(where we live)

You should just move to the old WestPark golf course so you can officially say you live in Western Loudoun

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

I did a little comparison on all the models this morning.

All the models have that bowing ball in a similar location day 3, but there’s a second shortwave that dives underneath it.

Camp GFS, GFS Ai, Euro Ai have the bowing ball not reacting to that shortwave and it just meanders over SE Canada and blocks any attempt at our storm to come up the coast.

Camp euro, cmc, Ukie phase that shortwave with the bowling ball and kick it east into our 50/50 location



This interaction plays a big role on whether our storm can come up the coast or not. There’s other factors, but this is key imo

So, take a look at the ICON.  Compared to 6z EUro, it looks about the same so far and I think it followed  your scenario...just don't know if it'll turn out the same or as good tho.

[soadforecasterx]

looks like icon is doing what we want. has the vort to the NE getting out the way. Then you see our northern branch wanting to drop in and phase

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

looks like icon is doing what we want. has the vort to the NE getting out the way. Then you see our northern branch wanting to drop in and phase

Looks like it'll be warmer than the Euro tho :/   But...ICON and all.

[bncho]

If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant.

[soadforecasterx]

North branch doesnt dive in this run, Icon wont pull it off but its damn close. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like it'll be warmer than the Euro tho :/   But...ICON and all.

It's a lot closer to something, though. @soadforecasterx's quick synoptic breakdown post above is a good representation of it.

[stormtracker]

ICON ultimately ends up suppressed    close tho

[Ji]

11 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You should just move to the old WestPark golf course so you can officially say you live in Western Loudoun

it looks like loudoun is 25 miles wide. I measured to leesburg which is like 13 miles. that puts me in western

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

ICON ultimately ends up suppressedclosed tho

suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z

Just a slight over adjustment. It'll be back next run. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

If this snowstorm happens I'm convinced it's because of George Washington's rant.

Wait when was the rant? Haha

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

suppressed lol. Look where the model was at 00z

So...suppressed 

[soadforecasterx]

Icon was no to far from the phase though 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

24 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

yeah if the op euro is just chasing the AIFS which has consistently been south we're cooked.

Yeah and we've seen these AI ops refuse to move once they get locked on an idea, smh I'd love to see a positive trend on those in the next day or so to have more confidence in our chances...

[Ji]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

it looks like loudoun is 25 miles wide. I measured to leesburg which is like 13 miles. that puts me in western

sorry aldie. 

[AlexD1990]

3 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet!

6" in Salisbury and 0" in Snow Hill...sure Jan

 

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Careful, he might challenge you to a duel. 

[87storms]

So basically…canceling winter on Feb 10 when lakes are frozen, is dumb.

[bncho]

4 hours ago, Paleocene said:

Indeed. 06z euro says wake up mid Atlantic and don't shit the blinds just yet!

Atmospheric Memory? 

[stormtracker]

SO GFS is much further South with that h5 football..now centered over N. NH/VT

[StormyClearweather]

AI GFS is suppressed. Double sucks because I was hoping for rain if we didn't get snow. SryNtSry.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

AI GFS is suppressed. Double sucks because I was hoping for rain if we didn't get snow. SryNtSry.

We may be in a drought forever lol 

[stormtracker]

It's funny the difference in location of that s/w up north between this run and 6z

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

We may be in a drought forever lol 

GFS will probably be suppressed too from what I'm seeing now.  Not 100% tho

[stormtracker]

Yup...lol.  we gone from warm cutter to cold cirrus.    

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup...lol.  we gone from warm running to cold cirrus.    

the Euro AI is the trend setter---and then all the other models follow. What a disaster

[SnowGolfBro]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup...lol.  we gone from warm running to cold cirrus.    

We just need the model to meet at the benchmark and we are good to go!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Ji said:

the Euro AI is the trend setter---and then all the other models follow. What a disaster

It's getting to the point of...do we even have to look at other models?  I feel like with the last few events it's always a step ahead.  It's ensembles snow maps are a mess though they always show a lot of snow for no reason.  

[soadforecasterx]

Euro AI has just been deadly, really unless otherwise proven wrong seems like the model to trust.