February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[CAPE]

43 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Also two days in a row waking up to @CAPE calling people’s analysis lazy lol. 

Unlike yesterday, that wasn't really directed at anyone, just a general statement. I was actually replying to my own post lol.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

someone gave JB access to the google model making feature

[anotherman]

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

JB created it in a lab. Frankenhecs

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

so much changed. the lead wave was suppose to cut under the block. but this look now is completely different

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

Except with warm rain?

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

so much changed. the lead wave was suppose to cut under the block. but this look now is completely different

You know how this works. As we get closer, errors in previous simulated outcomes get incrementally corrected until we arrive at the actual outcome, which is yet to be determined.

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, Ji said:

so much changed. the lead wave was suppose to cut under the block. but this look now is completely different

The blocking trended better but the wave leaves too much energy behind and the EPS washes it out on most members as the weaker wave that ejects gets shredded by the flow. We need a stronger wave with that look 

[Chris78]

Heading for a different result on the gfs for next weekend but not sure they'll be any cold air left

[stormtracker]

GFS has a good slug of precip to our SW, but is gonna fuck it up with retreating thermals next weekend.

[stormtracker]

Some weak CAD...zero isotherm is barely south of DC with precip

[stormtracker]

I mean, the takeaway is still....we trackin' next week.   STORMTRACKIN'

 

[Chris78]

Talk about a thread the needle lol

[stormtracker]

Honestly, it's not bad.  Especially for it being the suck ass GFS.     Cold enough that it's not rain...warm enough that it's not all snow for everyone.   N and W of the fall line appears to be snow?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Talk about a thread the needle lol

If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad.   Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad.   Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS

Preach 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad.   Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS

It actually looks alot like the Euro AI has its  past several runs.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If you don't take this run verbatim wrt to temps, it's not that bad.   Cold is close enough and...it's the GFS

We do thump per the WxBell maps.

[Shad]

Well the last 3 runs of the GFS have been completely different for this time period so take it with a grain of salt

[NorthArlington101]

Easy buy

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We do thump per the WxBell maps.

Things always look so much better with the pretty maps.    That thump is nice.  Any accum maps yet?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Easy buy

Well shitfire.    Yeah..No questions.  Take.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well shitfire.    Yeah..No questions.  Take.

DC flips just barely. Would be solved with better rates

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Easy buy

Oh look, Hagerstown doesn't get screwed.

[NorthArlington101]

CMC has something similar looking. Not nearly as good*, but there

*talking about DC - cville/south will prefer this

[SnowenOutThere]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We do thump per the WxBell maps.

Man that is a sad amount of frozen frozen for mid February. Either way it does work out for us 

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC has something similar looking. Not nearly as good*, but there

*talking about DC - cville/south will prefer this

Meh, it has the same problem. Just such a small amount of frozen. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CMC has something similar looking. Not nearly as good*, but there

*talking about DC - cville/south will prefer this

CMC looks weird.  At least on pivotal.  Jumps precip all around us

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

CMC looks weird.  At least on pivotal.  Jumps precip all around us

Kinda shears out. Agree it's odd. But the GFS run also looked a little funky so maybe it's just a funky period

[bncho]

GFS tries with the Feb 20 @CAPE potential

[mattskiva]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Kinda shears out. Agree it's odd. But the GFS run also looked a little funky so maybe it's just a funky period

So what do we think is more likely, this map that jackpots the Alleghenies or the one that jackpots the piedmont/coastal plain?  lol