Prismshine Productions Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling.When was the last time that happened?Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling. Yes, it does. It’s kind of hard to believe given where this was three days ago. Now we see if we can trend to a stronger coastal that might put a heavy band somewhere up around you or me. But even if that doesn’t happen, if we get those projected ratios and the snow is falling in the low single digits temperatures that’s really gonna be something 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: When was the last time that happened? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Probably back to 2015, Might have to ask Will that question.........lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Wow 6z gfs was amazing. Cigarette after sex amazing? 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 A great event to get schooled. Some will learn and apply to future posts and thus improve the forum. Early call for JACK just NW of I95 to the SW of New England, subject to change based on model evolution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 AM AFD from BOX. The probability %’s are high. Quote Turning our attention to the thing everyone wants to hear about...are we getting a snow storm? Bottom line up front: it`s looking good. Confidence continues to increase that indeed we`ll be dealing with a moderate to high impact winter storm on Sunday and Sunday night, perhaps lingering into Monday. Just how quickly it exits remains more uncertain. Guidance has not made any big jumps with the 00z run, continuing to indicate a good chance of much or all of SNE to see 6+ inches of snow. That being said, we are still over 3 days out from the onset of this system in New England and that`s an eternity in winter weather guidance world. As we`ve emphasized over the last 48 hours, track of the low is key and many solutions remain on the table. For what it`s worth, the 00z EPS ensemble guidance notably contracted the envelope of member low locations (bunched around the favorable 70/40 benchmark). Even so it remains best to approach this storm probabilistically, and the NBM probability of over 6 inches of snow has gone up; now 60-70% in northwest MA and over 90% in southeast MA. Probabilities of a foot of snow or more 30-40% and 60-70% respectively. However, keep in mind this a computer model probability that can and will still change based on future trends. The ingredients are there for a significant snow with a plume of subtropical moisture, a very cold antecedent airmass, and strong forcing potential (tbd if it falls within the DGZ for maximum fluffiness/snowfall rates etc, all details we won`t know until we get closer). The progressiveness of this system is also still in question, but the heaviest snow at the moment looks to be during the afternoon through early overnight hours Sunday with lighter snow continuing well into Monday. One fortunate aspect of this storm is that it doesn`t look to bring very strong/damaging winds with it (though it will be gusty over the waters). Finally, any snow that falls isn`t going anywhere fast because the cold sticks around next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, cut said: Was thinking a few weeks ago it’s been years since we’ve been able to have that night before the storm buzz - a couple drinks - a nexrad screen and watching the echoes roll in. Sometimes the chase is better than the storm itself, it’s a sickness, LOL 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 They changed the AFD format to segments up here, KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION: Recent guidance trend has to bring a quick but strong area of low pressure through the TN Valley Sunday before consolidating off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. This track, which has trended northward quickly over the past 24 hours, presents a snowy outcome for the forecast area into the beginning of next week. Amid a cold air mass, an all snow outcome is fairly certain barring any continued northward shifts. Will be monitoring forcing, how long precipitation is present, and any additional shifts in the low`s track to hone in on forecast totals. At this range, swings and shifts are not uncommon. Will want to watch timing of sharp trough arriving through the Midwest Sunday evening. This could orient mid level jet coupling to further deepen the parent low as jet strengthens across the Mid-South. With a lot of strong features (high and low) to materialize over the CONUS over the next 48 hours, shifts in thoughts are likely, but accumulating snow is a likely outcome. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ICON has been insistent on that redevelopment. Hammers eastern areas. Looks like some are 24”+ on the 06z run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 33 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: When was the last time that happened? Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk Maybe Feb 8th 2013. My sister sent me this from her apartment in Hamden that recorded 40 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 16 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: My Preliminary snowmap will adjust as we get closer! May not end up the worst map in the world 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ICON has been insistent on that redevelopment. Hammers eastern areas. Looks like some are 24”+ on the 06z run. I haven't compared the two meteorologically speaking, per se, but this system anecdotally reminds me of the 2/15/15 event for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: May not end up the worst map in the world i dunno the mix is trending north by saturday it's going to tickle dendrites behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: i dunno the mix is trending north I mean for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean for this area. by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind Nope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 41 minutes ago, cut said: Was thinking a few weeks ago it’s been years since we’ve been able to have that night before the storm buzz - a couple drinks - a nexrad screen and watching the echoes roll in. Just siting nude...booze in one hand, schlong in the other. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Masswx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Im worried Im gonna mix here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just siting nude...booze in one hand, schlong in the other. what are you thinking now for your hood? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: That looks nicer. Keep ticking north. I was taken to the shed in the medium range by this one. Granted it changed a lot, but I allowed the "whoa is me" mindset to drive the bus. Should have first call by early AM at the latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: what are you thinking now for your hood? Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was taken to the shed in the medium range by this one. Granted it changed a lot, but I allowed the "whoa is me" mindset to drive the bus. Should have first call by early AM at the latest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Gotta like the enthusiasm in the Albany AFD from this morning. Get your yard sticks in hand The ensembles and the medium range deterministic guidance continues to trend north/northwest with a primary and a secondary coastal low moving along the Mid Atlantic Coast late Sun/Sun night into Mon producing potentially a widespread moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall across eastern NY and western New England. Initially, arctic high pressure /~1040 hPa/ will be over NY and New England Saturday night into Sunday morning with a plethora of arctic air in place. Cold Weather headlines /Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings/ will likely be needed Sat night/Sun morning for the County Warning Area. An inverted sfc trough associated with with low pressure over the Southeast/Lower MS River Valley will focus some snowfall over the region Sun morning into the afternoon. A secondary low forms near the VA/NC Coast late Sun pm/early Sun evening. The primary low weakens/decays over the Ohio Valley into western PA (associated with the inverted sfc trough), as the secondary coastal low takes control east of NJ and south of Long Island Sun night. The track continues to show less variability and more consensus on the majority of the guidance, as the coastal cyclone slows down Mon morning into the afternoon, which keeps the snow going over the vast majority of the forecast area. The moisture fetch from the Gulf and Atlantic is impressive, as QPF totals are approaching 1.0" over a large portion of the forecast area which with a high snow to liquid ratio may yield heavy/significant snow tallies. A 7th period Winter Storm Watch was discussed and it was decided with WPC and a majority of the collab offices (OKX/BOX/GYX/BTV) to wait another cycle. The bottom line is that an extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall is supported by the NBM with 60-90% probabilities for snow Sun/Sun night into Mon. The latest 48-hr NBM guidance ending 7 pm Mon for >6" of snowfall indicates probabilities of 55-90% across the majority of the forecast with the highest probs from Albany south and east. 48-hr probabilities for >10" of snow for the same 48-hr period ending 7 pm or 00Z/Tue are 40-70%. Maybe have your yard sticks located and ready? The snowfall may potentially impact the Mon morning commute with the heavy snowfall. In the mid and upper level deformation zone to the departing storm system, additional snowfall could continue into Mon afternoon/Mon evening which would add onto the totals! The storm system is still 3-4 days out, but confidence has increased for moderate to major impacts for a moderate to heavy/significant snowfall. Snow to liquid ratios look to be above climatological values (12-20:1) with an arctic air mass in place, as high temps will be in the single digits to mid teens on Sun. Lows will be below zero over the southern Dacks and southern Greens Sun night and single digits over the majority of rest of the region. Highs on Mon only recover into the teens and lower 20s with some single digits over the mtns, as the snow tapers to flurries and snow showers by the Mon night time period. Below normal temps continue into the mid week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Gotta like the enthusiasm in the Albany AFD from this morning. Get your yard sticks in hand The ensembles and the medium range deterministic guidance continues to trend north/northwest with a primary and a secondary coastal low moving along the Mid Atlantic Coast late Sun/Sun night into Mon producing potentially a widespread moderate to heavy accumulating snowfall across eastern NY and western New England. Initially, arctic high pressure /~1040 hPa/ will be over NY and New England Saturday night into Sunday morning with a plethora of arctic air in place. Cold Weather headlines /Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings/ will likely be needed Sat night/Sun morning for the County Warning Area. An inverted sfc trough associated with with low pressure over the Southeast/Lower MS River Valley will focus some snowfall over the region Sun morning into the afternoon. A secondary low forms near the VA/NC Coast late Sun pm/early Sun evening. The primary low weakens/decays over the Ohio Valley into western PA (associated with the inverted sfc trough), as the secondary coastal low takes control east of NJ and south of Long Island Sun night. The track continues to show less variability and more consensus on the majority of the guidance, as the coastal cyclone slows down Mon morning into the afternoon, which keeps the snow going over the vast majority of the forecast area. The moisture fetch from the Gulf and Atlantic is impressive, as QPF totals are approaching 1.0" over a large portion of the forecast area which with a high snow to liquid ratio may yield heavy/significant snow tallies. A 7th period Winter Storm Watch was discussed and it was decided with WPC and a majority of the collab offices (OKX/BOX/GYX/BTV) to wait another cycle. The bottom line is that an extended period of moderate to heavy snowfall is supported by the NBM with 60-90% probabilities for snow Sun/Sun night into Mon. The latest 48-hr NBM guidance ending 7 pm Mon for >6" of snowfall indicates probabilities of 55-90% across the majority of the forecast with the highest probs from Albany south and east. 48-hr probabilities for >10" of snow for the same 48-hr period ending 7 pm or 00Z/Tue are 40-70%. Maybe have your yard sticks located and ready? The snowfall may potentially impact the Mon morning commute with the heavy snowfall. In the mid and upper level deformation zone to the departing storm system, additional snowfall could continue into Mon afternoon/Mon evening which would add onto the totals! The storm system is still 3-4 days out, but confidence has increased for moderate to major impacts for a moderate to heavy/significant snowfall. Snow to liquid ratios look to be above climatological values (12-20:1) with an arctic air mass in place, as high temps will be in the single digits to mid teens on Sun. Lows will be below zero over the southern Dacks and southern Greens Sun night and single digits over the majority of rest of the region. Highs on Mon only recover into the teens and lower 20s with some single digits over the mtns, as the snow tapers to flurries and snow showers by the Mon night time period. Below normal temps continue into the mid week. Cream-in-pants just oozes out of that AFD...guy couldn't contain himself. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I'm gonna have to piece-meal this one together with work today, followed by GYM PM, kids and therapy client tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind If it did raindrops would be falling on many to the south, Not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, dryslot said: If it did raindrops would be falling on many to the south, Not happening. yeah that's true but if we can get GFS or iconic to be the real solution most on this and our forum would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: yeah that's true but if we can get GFS or iconic to be the real solution most on this and our forum would be happy I don't see the low getting any closer than the Cape, and that is worst case. I understand the concern, but there is a limit with that pig vortex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 hours ago, jbenedet said: Tbh the mid level support isn’t there to anchor the high. Given the intensity of the trailing shortwave it’s not much to see it slide east and become that giant surface high that merges with the WAR that we’ve seen happen so many times before…. The Canadian surface high kicking east like 24 hours sooner is basically the only thing that needs to change to take on a high amplitude MJO phase 7 look which we will be in at go time… Not much given still 100 hours out. That Canadian high position though… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I think we're regionally back..funny how out winter's mirror the Pats. Maybe Kraft owns the winter and John Henry does payroll. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, jbenedet said: That Canadian high position though… That is a good thing IMO give the antecedent airmass and SSTs only being 40.....the flow is more NE instead of NNE, which limits subsidence just off of the coast and gets more of an 850-mb moisture influx. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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