“Cory’s in LA! Let’s MECS!” Jan. 24-26 Disco

[Prismshine Productions]

Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling.

When was the last time that happened?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[mahk_webstah]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looks like 12"+ for most of the region when you combine all modeling.

Yes, it does. It’s kind of hard to believe given where this was three days ago. Now we see if we can trend to a stronger coastal that might put a heavy band somewhere up around you or me.  
But even if that doesn’t happen, if we get those projected ratios and the snow is falling in the low single digits temperatures that’s really gonna be something

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

When was the last time that happened?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Probably back to 2015, Might have to ask Will that question.........lol

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow 6z gfs was amazing.

Cigarette after sex amazing?

[ROOSTA]

A great event to get schooled. Some will learn and apply to future posts and thus improve the forum.

Early call for JACK just NW of I95 to the SW of New England, subject to change based on model evolution.

[Baroclinic Zone]

AM AFD from BOX. The probability %’s are high.

Quote

Turning our attention to the thing everyone wants to hear
about...are we getting a snow storm? Bottom line up front: it`s
looking good. Confidence continues to increase that indeed we`ll be
dealing with a moderate to high impact winter storm on Sunday and
Sunday night, perhaps lingering into Monday. Just how quickly it
exits remains more uncertain. Guidance has not made any big jumps
with the 00z run, continuing to indicate a good chance of much or
all of SNE to see 6+ inches of snow. That being said, we are still
over 3 days out from the onset of this system in New England and
that`s an eternity in winter weather guidance world. As we`ve
emphasized over the last 48 hours, track of the low is key and many
solutions remain on the table. For what it`s worth, the 00z EPS
ensemble guidance notably contracted the envelope of member low
locations (bunched around the favorable 70/40 benchmark). Even so it
remains best to approach this storm probabilistically, and the NBM
probability of over 6 inches of snow has gone up; now 60-70% in
northwest MA and over 90% in southeast MA. Probabilities of a foot
of snow or more 30-40% and 60-70% respectively. However, keep in
mind this a computer model probability that can and will still
change based on future trends. The ingredients are there for a
significant snow with a plume of subtropical moisture, a very cold
antecedent airmass, and strong forcing potential (tbd if it falls
within the DGZ for maximum fluffiness/snowfall rates etc, all
details we won`t know until we get closer). The progressiveness of
this system is also still in question, but the heaviest snow at the
moment looks to be during the afternoon through early overnight
hours Sunday with lighter snow continuing well into Monday. One
fortunate aspect of this storm is that it doesn`t look to bring very
strong/damaging winds with it (though it will be gusty over the
waters). Finally, any snow that falls isn`t going anywhere fast
because the cold sticks around next week.

 

[Kitz Craver]

25 minutes ago, cut said:

Was thinking a few weeks ago it’s been years since we’ve been able to have that night before the storm buzz - a couple drinks - a nexrad screen and watching the echoes roll in.

Sometimes the chase is better than the storm itself, it’s a sickness, LOL

[dryslot]

They changed the AFD format to segments up here,

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION:
Recent guidance trend has to bring a quick but strong area of
low pressure through the TN Valley Sunday before consolidating
off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night into Monday. This track,
which has trended northward quickly over the past 24 hours,
presents a snowy outcome for the forecast area into the
beginning of next week.

Amid a cold air mass, an all snow outcome is fairly certain
barring any continued northward shifts. Will be monitoring
forcing, how long precipitation is present, and any additional
shifts in the low`s track to hone in on forecast totals. At this
range, swings and shifts are not uncommon.

Will want to watch timing of sharp trough arriving through the
Midwest Sunday evening. This could orient mid level jet coupling
to further deepen the parent low as jet strengthens across the
Mid-South. With a lot of strong features (high and low) to
materialize over the CONUS over the next 48 hours, shifts in
thoughts are likely, but accumulating snow is a likely outcome.

[Baroclinic Zone]

ICON has been insistent on that redevelopment. Hammers eastern areas.  Looks like some are 24”+ on the 06z run.

[BrianW]

33 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

When was the last time that happened?

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk
 

Maybe Feb 8th 2013. My sister sent me this from her apartment in Hamden that recorded 40 inches.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Preliminary snowmap will adjust as we get closer!  

May not end up the worst map in the world

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

ICON has been insistent on that redevelopment. Hammers eastern areas.  Looks like some are 24”+ on the 06z run.

I haven't compared the two meteorologically speaking, per se, but this system anecdotally reminds me of the 2/15/15 event for some reason.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May not end up the worst map in the world

i dunno the mix is trending north by saturday it's going to tickle dendrites behind

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i dunno the mix is trending north

I mean for this area.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mean for this area.

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind 

Nope.

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, cut said:

Was thinking a few weeks ago it’s been years since we’ve been able to have that night before the storm buzz - a couple drinks - a nexrad screen and watching the echoes roll in.

Just siting nude...booze in one hand, schlong in the other.

[Masswx]

Im worried Im gonna mix here

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just siting nude...booze in one hand, schlong in the other.

what are you thinking now for your hood?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That looks nicer.  Keep ticking north.

I was taken to the shed in the medium range by this one. Granted it changed a lot, but I allowed the "whoa is me" mindset to drive the bus.

Should have first call by early AM at the latest.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

what are you thinking now for your hood?

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was taken to the shed in the medium range by this one. Granted it changed a lot, but I allowed the "whoa is me" mindset to drive the bus.

Should have first call by early AM at the latest.

 

[JKEisMan]

Gotta like the enthusiasm in the Albany AFD from this morning. Get your yard sticks in hand
 

The ensembles and the medium range deterministic guidance continues
to trend north/northwest with a primary and a secondary coastal low
moving along the Mid Atlantic Coast late Sun/Sun night into Mon
producing potentially a widespread moderate to heavy accumulating
snowfall across eastern NY and western New England.  Initially,
arctic high pressure /~1040 hPa/ will be over NY and New England
Saturday night into Sunday morning with a plethora of arctic air in
place. Cold Weather headlines /Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme
Cold Warnings/ will likely be needed Sat night/Sun morning for the
County Warning Area.  An inverted sfc trough associated with with
low pressure over the Southeast/Lower MS River Valley will focus
some snowfall over the region Sun morning into the afternoon. A
secondary low forms near the VA/NC Coast late Sun pm/early Sun
evening. The primary low weakens/decays over the Ohio Valley into
western PA (associated with the inverted sfc trough), as the
secondary coastal low takes control east of NJ and south of Long
Island Sun night. The track continues to show less variability and
more consensus on the majority of the guidance, as the coastal
cyclone slows down Mon morning into the afternoon, which keeps the
snow going over the vast majority of the forecast area. The moisture
fetch from the Gulf and Atlantic is impressive, as QPF totals are
approaching 1.0" over a large portion of the forecast area which
with a high snow to liquid ratio may yield heavy/significant snow
tallies. A 7th period Winter Storm Watch was discussed and it was
decided with WPC and a majority of the collab offices
(OKX/BOX/GYX/BTV) to wait another cycle.

The bottom line is that an extended period of moderate to heavy
snowfall is supported by the NBM with 60-90% probabilities for snow
Sun/Sun night into Mon.  The latest 48-hr NBM guidance ending 7 pm
Mon for >6" of snowfall indicates probabilities of 55-90% across the
majority of the forecast with the highest probs from Albany south
and east. 48-hr probabilities for >10" of snow for the same 48-hr
period ending 7 pm or 00Z/Tue are 40-70%. Maybe have your yard
sticks located and ready? The snowfall may potentially impact the
Mon morning commute with the heavy snowfall. In the mid and upper
level deformation zone to the departing storm system, additional
snowfall could continue into Mon afternoon/Mon evening which would
add onto the totals!  The storm system is still 3-4 days out, but
confidence has increased for moderate to major impacts for a
moderate to heavy/significant snowfall.  Snow to liquid ratios look
to be above climatological values (12-20:1) with an arctic air mass
in place, as high temps will be in the single digits to mid teens on
Sun. Lows will be below zero over the southern Dacks and southern
Greens Sun night and single digits over the majority of rest of the
region. Highs on Mon only recover into the teens and lower 20s with
some single digits over the mtns, as the snow tapers to flurries and
snow showers by the Mon night time period. Below normal temps
continue into the mid week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, JKEisMan said:

Gotta like the enthusiasm in the Albany AFD from this morning. Get your yard sticks in hand
 

The ensembles and the medium range deterministic guidance continues
to trend north/northwest with a primary and a secondary coastal low
moving along the Mid Atlantic Coast late Sun/Sun night into Mon
producing potentially a widespread moderate to heavy accumulating
snowfall across eastern NY and western New England.  Initially,
arctic high pressure /~1040 hPa/ will be over NY and New England
Saturday night into Sunday morning with a plethora of arctic air in
place. Cold Weather headlines /Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme
Cold Warnings/ will likely be needed Sat night/Sun morning for the
County Warning Area.  An inverted sfc trough associated with with
low pressure over the Southeast/Lower MS River Valley will focus
some snowfall over the region Sun morning into the afternoon. A
secondary low forms near the VA/NC Coast late Sun pm/early Sun
evening. The primary low weakens/decays over the Ohio Valley into
western PA (associated with the inverted sfc trough), as the
secondary coastal low takes control east of NJ and south of Long
Island Sun night. The track continues to show less variability and
more consensus on the majority of the guidance, as the coastal
cyclone slows down Mon morning into the afternoon, which keeps the
snow going over the vast majority of the forecast area. The moisture
fetch from the Gulf and Atlantic is impressive, as QPF totals are
approaching 1.0" over a large portion of the forecast area which
with a high snow to liquid ratio may yield heavy/significant snow
tallies. A 7th period Winter Storm Watch was discussed and it was
decided with WPC and a majority of the collab offices
(OKX/BOX/GYX/BTV) to wait another cycle.

The bottom line is that an extended period of moderate to heavy
snowfall is supported by the NBM with 60-90% probabilities for snow
Sun/Sun night into Mon.  The latest 48-hr NBM guidance ending 7 pm
Mon for >6" of snowfall indicates probabilities of 55-90% across the
majority of the forecast with the highest probs from Albany south
and east. 48-hr probabilities for >10" of snow for the same 48-hr
period ending 7 pm or 00Z/Tue are 40-70%. Maybe have your yard
sticks located and ready? The snowfall may potentially impact the
Mon morning commute with the heavy snowfall. In the mid and upper
level deformation zone to the departing storm system, additional
snowfall could continue into Mon afternoon/Mon evening which would
add onto the totals!  The storm system is still 3-4 days out, but
confidence has increased for moderate to major impacts for a
moderate to heavy/significant snowfall.  Snow to liquid ratios look
to be above climatological values (12-20:1) with an arctic air mass
in place, as high temps will be in the single digits to mid teens on
Sun. Lows will be below zero over the southern Dacks and southern
Greens Sun night and single digits over the majority of rest of the
region. Highs on Mon only recover into the teens and lower 20s with
some single digits over the mtns, as the snow tapers to flurries and
snow showers by the Mon night time period. Below normal temps
continue into the mid week.

Cream-in-pants just oozes out of that AFD...guy couldn't contain himself.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm gonna have to piece-meal this one together with work today, followed by GYM PM, kids and therapy client tonight.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

by Saturday sleet might tickle dendrites behind 

If it did raindrops would be falling on many to the south, Not happening.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If it did raindrops would be falling on many to the south, Not happening.

yeah that's true but if we can get GFS or iconic to be the real solution most on this and our forum would be happy

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yeah that's true but if we can get GFS or iconic to be the real solution most on this and our forum would be happy

I don't see the low getting any closer than the Cape, and that is worst case. I understand the concern, but there is a limit with that pig vortex.

[jbenedet]

8 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Tbh the mid level support isn’t there to anchor the high. Given the intensity of the trailing shortwave it’s not much to see it slide east and become that giant surface high that merges with the WAR that we’ve seen happen so many times before….

The Canadian surface high kicking east like 24 hours sooner is basically the only thing that needs to change to take on a high amplitude MJO phase 7 look which we will be in at go time…

Not much given still 100 hours out. 

That Canadian high position though…

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we're regionally back..funny how out winter's mirror the Pats. Maybe Kraft owns the winter and John Henry does payroll.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, jbenedet said:

That Canadian high position though…

That is a good thing IMO give the antecedent airmass and SSTs only being 40.....the flow is more NE instead of NNE, which limits subsidence just off of the coast and gets more of an 850-mb moisture influx.