1/24-1/25 Major Winter Storm - S. IL, IN, MI and OH

[Jackstraw]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

I saw arctic sand at ozzfest in 1998, they sucked

I was snorting arctic sand at ozzfest in '98  

[A-L-E-K]

this is your moment^

[Stevo6899]

The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall mb wise so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.

[TimChgo9]

From the WPC, through Sunday. 
 

[buckeye]

2 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

From the WPC, through Sunday. 
 

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

[TheClimateChanger]

6 minutes ago, TimChgo9 said:

From the WPC, through Sunday. 
 

*Only through 12z

[Powerball]

13 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall mb wise so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.

12z NAM was pretty close to being well-phased and amped up. 1005mb low got all the way to Lexington before being shunted eastward.

Unfortunately, it seems there isn't going to be enough separation of the PV, nor digging of the Baja low, to prevent a quick transfer (which is good for the OV).

Still, the NAM was strong enough that it ended up being a nice run for the Detroit area (there's plenty more snow beyond 84hr).

[ILSNOW]

It is the NAM (useless) I wonder if  DocATL will check back in!!!!

[nvck]

15/20:1 ratios for the duration of the event is insane for southern Ohio. 0.9" QPF for Cincinnati becomes 13-20" of snow...

[Stevo6899]

15 minutes ago, Powerball said:

12z NAM was pretty close to being well-phased and amped up. 1005mb low got all the way to Lexington before being shunted eastward.

Unfortunately, it seems there isn't going to be enough separation of the PV, nor digging of the Baja low, to prevent a quick transfer (which is good for the OV).

Still, the NAM was strong enough that it ended up being a nice run for the Detroit area (there's plenty more snow beyond 84hr).

Yea these scenarios always make me wonder if the low isn't that strong overall and the phasing is the only thing making this a storm. What's preventing the low from dropping below 1000 and kinda bombing/not transferring. Obviously beyond my meteorological knowledge. Cold high to the north shunting it?

[TimChgo9]

26 minutes ago, buckeye said:

seemed low but only goes through Sunday 7am

Okay, so we are going to get more than what the WPC shows.  I guess I best get a few things from the store........... 

 

[Brian D]

^prudent^

[TimChgo9]

13 minutes ago, nvck said:

15/20:1 ratios for the duration of the event is insane for southern Ohio. 0.9" QPF for Cincinnati becomes 13-20" of snow...

That would be something. Temps for the weekend don't get above 20, and are single digits in the overnight. 

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

43 minutes ago, Powerball said:

12z NAM was pretty close to being well-phased and amped up. 1005mb low got all the way to Lexington before being shunted eastward.

Unfortunately, it seems there isn't going to be enough separation of the PV, nor digging of the Baja low, to prevent a quick transfer (which is good for the OV).

Still, the NAM was strong enough that it ended up being a nice run for the Detroit area (there's plenty more snow beyond 84hr).

If you extrapolate the NAM it’d probably be about an 8-10” snowfall for the Detroit city proper. I’d definitely rather be downriver for this one instead of north.