January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Fields27]

You’re in it 
 
16F/-4 dp I’m surprised their doesn’t seem to be much virga 

That stj dont play!

Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

r doesn’t seem to be much virga 

A good sign. One less thing to worry about...

14F/DP -5

[JTA66]

I see the radar has some returns in PA, I just figured it was all virga.

15F/DP -2F

[Ralph Wiggum]

1z hrrr coming in colder again. Hmmm.

[LVblizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1z hrrr coming in colder again. Hmmm.

Meanwhile the NAM gets plain rain to Philly.

[JTA66]

Maybe Flo hacked the NAM?

[kpantz]

00Z RRFS looks better than its 18Z run by the looks of snowfall totals, particularly in the southern 2/3 of NJ.

[RedSky]

Last call is 8" snow 2" sleet

 

[kpantz]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Last call is 8" snow 2" sleet

 

A bit NE of you, I'm thinking 10" snow before we change over, but I'm intrigued by the continued model debate over the forward progress of the warm nose/tongue/proboscis. That said, I've shoveled enough sleet in my time here to know we don't have any sort of magic shield...

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, kpantz said:

A bit NE of you, I'm thinking 10" snow before we change over, but I'm intrigued by the continued model debate over the forward progress of the warm nose/tongue/proboscis. That said, I've shoveled enough sleet in my time here to know we don't have any sort of magic shield...

I like how it pings the windows to announce it's presence like some incredibly annoying relative

[CoolHandMike]

15°F/ -.7°F DP. Radar returns are overhead but it's all virga for now. (As expected.)

[kpantz]

5 minutes ago, RedSky said:

I like how it pings the windows to announce it's presence like some incredibly annoying relative

Inevitable and intractable, you just want it to stop, but you know it will leave when it's good and ready lol.

Encouraged by some of the cooling trends, but realistic. I'll be happy if we are snowing during the best forcing early tomorrow afternoon.

[kpantz]

12F/-4F here just NW of Easton.

[Birds~69]

14F/DP -5

Weenies anxiously awaiting steady flakes...

[The Iceman]

Setting the alarm for 3 am, hope we are snowing decent by then. Temp steady at 16F. Looks like first echoes heading into reading/chester, anyone getting flakes?

[Thesmithsinde]

Just drove from Blue Bell Pa to Middletown De , Not a flake.

[Albedoman]

32 minutes ago, kpantz said:

A bit NE of you, I'm thinking 10" snow before we change over, but I'm intrigued by the continued model debate over the forward progress of the warm nose/tongue/proboscis. That said, I've shoveled enough sleet in my time here to know we don't have any sort of magic shield...

I think we need to have a contest on where the sleet line actually sets up  in and around the LV.  I would like to see if Physical geography has a big play in this storm event.  South Mtn and Blue Mtn usually plays some intregral part. Overall though 1-2 inches of sleet is just going to make the snow weigh more when shoveling/plowing.  We will still have serious drifting issues in Northern areas of the Lehigh and Northampton Counties. Like you have said, I would love to see the forcing/banding be extended for a long period of time in the afternoon with thundersnow potential. .

Honestly, many snow weenies want the most snow accumalations in the forum but after a foot of snow and  inch or two of sleet after the big thumping of snow is eventually going to pack down or go through the fluffy snow and create one hell of a driving nightmare on the road surfaces since salt cannot work in these lower temps.  Everyone screams about lowering snowfall accumalations, but its the road surface conditions that will determine the nightmare of this storm event.  This storm reminds me so much of 1994 where it will be on the road for days with the extreme cold and everyone trying to drive in the ruts because  the rest of the road surface is fricking ice covered compacted snow and sleet nightmare. I had to endure that for over a week and believe me it was not fun. Every intersection in and around Hamilton Blvd  and Rt 78 was a living nightmare as making left turns in ruts was an ice skating rink.   Can you imagine now 30 years later with all of the devleopment and congestion what Brookside and Hamilton will be like now? 

[Albedoman]

I love this analysis and I would love to see this report after each winters storm event over 6 inches. MOdel reliability would be the issue and not using wild speculating clown maps. Hope others think the same way. Lets get thoss HRRR maps up now and it appears the Euro is the model to look at.

 

[Chadzachadam]

Reports of snow in Raleigh and sleet in Blacksburg VA which doesn’t make much sense to me

[bringmesnow1]

4 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I love this analysis and I would love to see this report after each winters storm event over 6 inches. MOdel reliability would be the issue and not using wild speculating clown maps. Hope others think the same way. Lets get thoss HRRR maps up now and it appears the Euro is the model to look at.

 

Is it possible for the "Good for Shit" model to score so poorly we retire it? 

Tbh, there's a lot of chaos now, just a few hours before the snow starts falling here.  So...

 

 

[LVLion77]

I think we need to have a contest on where the sleet line actually sets up  in and around the LV.  I would like to see if Physical geography has a big play in this storm event.  South Mtn and Blue Mtn usually plays some intregral part. Overall though 1-2 inches of sleet is just going to make the snow weigh more when shoveling/plowing.  We will still have serious drifting issues in Northern areas of the Lehigh and Northampton Counties. Like you have said, I would love to see the forcing/banding be extended for a long period of time in the afternoon with thundersnow potential. .
Honestly, many snow weenies want the most snow accumalations in the forum but after a foot of snow and  inch or two of sleet after the big thumping of snow is eventually going to pack down or go through the fluffy snow and create one hell of a driving nightmare on the road surfaces since salt cannot work in these lower temps.  Everyone screams about lowering snowfall accumalations, but its the road surface conditions that will determine the nightmare of this storm event.  This storm reminds me so much of 1994 where it will be on the road for days with the extreme cold and everyone trying to drive in the ruts because  the rest of the road surface is fricking ice covered compacted snow and sleet nightmare. I had to endure that for over a week and believe me it was not fun. Every intersection in and around Hamilton Blvd  and Rt 78 was a living nightmare as making left turns in ruts was an ice skating rink.   Can you imagine now 30 years later with all of the devleopment and congestion what Brookside and Hamilton will be like now? 

A few miles away from you, sitting at 13.7° and just took the dog out for one last time with no flakes yet in sight. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if Lower Macungie (for those not in this area, a growing suburban lehigh valley township pop 33k) and the state of Pennsylvania can come to an agreement on whose responsibility is to plow state roads like Brookside Road in this area. They had had a disagreement last weekend during that roughly 9 inches of snow and it was not touched for a long time. I am an essential worker so I will be out in it tomorrow afternoon. I drive an AWD vehicle so no problems on my end, just the other idiots out there!

[anthonyweather]

If you like global models at this range, cmc much snowier. Near 20” in northern Lehigh County. Was 10-12” at 12z.

Every 00z model and weather app is screen shotted for comparison


I leave you with mine. Up at 3am for all day plowing in Bethlehem.




.

[anthonyweather]

.

[coastal front]

Every model other than the nam has close to 6-8” for me towards absecon. All comes down the thump and hour of change over. Nam is closer to 10 am while other models are closer to 12-1pm. 2/3 hour difference might not seem like a lot but if it’s coming down at an inch+ an hour adds up. Tomorrow am will be the ultimate nowcasting


.

[anthonyweather]

A few miles away from you, sitting at 13.7° and just took the dog out for one last time with no flakes yet in sight. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if Lower Macungie (for those not in this area, a growing suburban lehigh valley township pop 33k) and the state of Pennsylvania can come to an agreement on whose responsibility is to plow state roads like Brookside Road in this area. They had had a disagreement last weekend during that roughly 9 inches of snow and it was not touched for a long time. I am an essential worker so I will be out in it tomorrow afternoon. I drive an AWD vehicle so no problems on my end, just the other idiots out there!

I don’t remember that being Penndot, I used to plow for Penndot out of Golden key


.

[JTA66]

8 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

.

That map has me in the dark purple. Pretty close to my thinking of 6-10” imby. 

[Duca892]

Peeking in on the MA forum it seems some are getting to sleet quicker than modeled?

[Albedoman]

24 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

A few miles away from you, sitting at 13.7° and just took the dog out for one last time with no flakes yet in sight. It will be interesting tomorrow to see if Lower Macungie (for those not in this area, a growing suburban lehigh valley township pop 33k) and the state of Pennsylvania can come to an agreement on whose responsibility is to plow state roads like Brookside Road in this area. They had had a disagreement last weekend during that roughly 9 inches of snow and it was not touched for a long time. I am an essential worker so I will be out in it tomorrow afternoon. I drive an AWD vehicle so no problems on my end, just the other idiots out there!

 I agree- its the others but it will be a mess for sure

 

[coastal front]

I think the heavy rates that we will get helps abate the sleet progression. Farther south they don’t have that what so ever


.

[JTA66]

4 minutes ago, coastal front said:

I think the heavy rates that we will get helps abate the sleet progression. Farther south they don’t have that what so ever


.

With the cold, every flake will count and result in good ratios. The heavy banding is the wildcard. Fingers crossed!