Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

Looks great. It’s literally miles away from giving nyc and li a crush job I think it’s 16inches touching the long island sound 

I am in CT so about 17 for me on that but I am rooting for CPK.

[wthrmn654]

Guy from Upton just replied to me,  techs are working on radar they hope to have it back in action tonight. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

NYC/I-80/LI aren't getting 12" from this as much as I want it to happen. Just not the type of storm where it happens. Hopefully White Plains/coastal CT still can. 

Lets just watch the radar and hope for a positive bust. 

[psv88]

GFS got snowier but that doesn’t matter anyway. RGEM a tick less snowy but still great 

[Irish]

4 minutes ago, MANDA said:

https://x.com/i/status/2015216979687153771

Thunder snow in Lebanon, VA.  Turn up the sound.

Other than sounding cool, being during a snow storm, is there any other importance to it?

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

NYC/I-80/LI aren't getting 12" from this as much as I want it to happen. Just not the type of storm where it happens. Hopefully White Plains/coastal CT still can. 

I wouldn't rule out 12 inches for I80/North Shore LI, it would be best case scenario but possible. 

[EastonSN+]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Lets just watch the radar and hope for a positive bust. 

Gonna be a lot of snow and sleet regardless and will stick around for a long time.

[nycsnow]

RGEM is less than an inch difference from 18z for a lot of people biggest thing I noticed I posted above the fact it brought the big boy numbers 14-17 to the ct coast li sound 

[SnoSki14]

Those few hours before the change look so intense. I really think with ratios we could be pushing 3"+ an hour. 

[jm1220]

Just now, nycsnow said:

RGEM is literally 10 miles if that from giving north shore 14-16 inches North shore might do well 

I'll probably get 2" more than the south shore because snow will hang on a little longer here but we see the colder models gradually adjusting warmer and the NAM/GFS getting slightly colder but no big cave. Pretty clear that we'll be sleeting by 21z. White Plains/coastal CT probably get a little sleet but not enough to really harm accumulations. So that could get them another 3-5" total over me. I do think 6" is a lock for everyone in this subforum save coastal NJ where we'll have to see when it changes to rain. 

Again, since sleet and snow are the same water content as all snow, it will just make it harder to move/shovel here and maybe we get some freezing drizzle to fuse it all together. 

[Prue11]

Intense upward air motion. Almost always signals heavy snow when you hear thunder when it’s snowing 

5 minutes ago, Irish said:

Other than sounding cool, being during a snow storm, is there any other importance to it?

[winterwarlock]

Its all model noise at this point

[wthrmn654]

All it would take is a delay in mix for higher totals to verify.  

[psv88]

RGEM is 10-14” for the island, west to east. Let’s go!

[Winterweatherlover]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

RGEM is less than an inch difference from 18z for a lot of people biggest thing I noticed I posted above the fact it brought the big boy numbers 14-17 to the ct coast li sound 

It has a foot for northern NYC and the extreme north shore of LI. It's probably the best case scenario.

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I'll probably get 2" more than the south shore because snow will hang on a little longer here but we see the colder models gradually adjusting warmer and the NAM/GFS getting slightly colder but no big cave. Pretty clear that we'll be sleeting by 21z. White Plains/coastal CT probably get a little sleet but not enough to really harm accumulations. So that could get them another 3-5" total over me. I do think 6" is a lock for everyone in this subforum save coastal NJ where we'll have to see when it changes to rain. 

Again, since sleet and snow are the same water content as all snow, it will just make it harder to move/shovel here and maybe we get some freezing drizzle to fuse it all together. 

Also one thing to look at, I don’t know how to lol but been seeing a lot of people on social media saying be careful of precip maps because a lot of them showing sleet the sounding would support snow 

[psv88]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

It has 12+ for northern NYC and the extreme north shore of LI. It's probably the best case scenario.

It’s close to all models other than GFS and NAM, both which got better. 

[EastonSN+]

GFS increased totals even though had more sleet due to heavier snow initially.

[nycsnow]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

All it would take is a delay in mix for higher totals to verify.  

Literally 2 hours can mean difference form 10 to 12 or 14 lol

[wthrmn654]

In Tennessee any snow that fell is now frozen solid per my sister.  Temp of 24 there,  from 19 in morning, shoot up like a rocket to 54 then down to the 20s. Wild temp swings down there.. rough living down there with such erratic temperatures. 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

RGEM is 10-14” for the island, west to east. Let’s go!

of snow or mix?

[psv88]

Just now, David-LI said:

of snow or mix?

Combined 

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GFS increased totals even though had more sleet due to heavier snow initially.

I mean Philly has pretty much the same amount of snow as NYC and White Plains? GFS sucks

[jm1220]

I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. Also it has something like 1.6" liquid now-whatever falls will be heavy with a lot of water content. This will be lasting a long time on the ground. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. 

Sleet got here faster offset by a heavier thump

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, ILoveWinter said:

I mean Philly has pretty much the same amount of snow as NYC and White Plains? GFS sucks

Not super likely but could happen if they get better banding.

[wthrmn654]

156 pages wow

[EastonSN+]

March 2017 had 7.5 of snow followed by 2.0 of snow sleet mix for a total of 9.5. Sleet snow mix DOES accumulate.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

I just looked at the 0z RGEM on Pivotal and not much change to me. Sleet is here by 21z and seemed to advance a little faster. 

You’ll probably grab an extra inch or two from this storm than me. My southeast move will hurt a bit. I’ve seen the sleet line get pinned just south of the LIE before, which gives me a whole mile of safety…I’ve also seen it stay a mile north for a long time. Will be fun 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

March 2017 had 7.5 of snow followed by 2.0 of snow sleet mix for a total of 9.5. Sleet snow mix DOES accumulate.

Yes if it's mixed it will but slower, I mean even sleet on it's own will accumulate especially on top of a snowpack it'll just be very slow.