Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[WestBabylonWeather]

4 minutes ago, North and West said:

It felt like it today!


.

Cleaned my yard and shed when it was 12 degrees. Had on 4 layers. I enjoyed it

[nycsnow]

RGEM looks like it wants to set the battleground around nyc metro if true. There could be a battle with the dynamics at play maybe some snow wins out or it goes back and forth??? 

[eduggs]

Unfortunately the ECMWF-AIFS treats all frozen precip. (e.g., sleet) as snow in its 10:1 total, so that map isn't going to tell us much. Same is true for the UKMET and a few others.

[nycsnow]

Incredible run

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Unfortunately the ECMWF-AIFS treats all frozen precip. (e.g., sleet) as snow in its 10:1 total, so that map isn't going to tell us much. Same is true for the UKMET and a few others.

Pivotal don’t let any maps that show sleet impact snow accumulation I believe 

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 18z RGEM very high QPF

 

 

 

SNowfall (10:1)

 

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Unfortunately the ECMWF-AIFS treats all frozen precip. (e.g., sleet) as snow in its 10:1 total, so that map isn't going to tell us much. Same is true for the UKMET and a few others.

 

[NorthShoreWx]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m hoping for the freezing drizzle at the end-maybe it happens in the dry slot when there’s little lift. It’ll encase everything into a glacier. 

That's the one thing that will ruin the skiing for me.  Sleet is fine; punching through crust sucks.

[kat5hurricane]

20 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro and Euro AI have a big thump. Around a foot for NYC. 

Is that snow or snow and sleet? Important distinction

[eduggs]

The 18z RGEM is the best run I've seen in a while from any model. Very impressive thump with several hours of 0.1"+ liquid and it shifted the sleet line meaningfully south! Unfortunately when the 3rd party graphics for the RGEM and NAM differ with northern extent of sleet, it's usually best to go with the NAM. But a shift south is still welcomed. 

[psv88]

Euro looks great. Solid foot island wide. RGEM 10”+. Lets goooo

[mob1]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

Is that snow or snow and sleet? Important distinction

Both

[nycsnow]

Just now, psv88 said:

Euro looks great. Solid foot island wide. RGEM 10”+. Lets goooo

NAM literally on its own and trended colder at 18z

[binbisso]

6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Unfortunately the ECMWF-AIFS treats all frozen precip. (e.g., sleet) as snow in its 10:1 total, so that map isn't going to tell us much. Same is true for the UKMET and a few others.

That's not true

[Winterweatherlover]

20 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Euro and GFS going in opposite directions. Surprising nobody seems to riled up about it. I think 10+ is on the table still for NYC


.

I'm cautious rather than overly optimistic but even I don't care about the gfs especially at this range.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/24 18z RGEM very high QPF

 

 

 

SNowfall (10:1)

 

Oh man am I praying. 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

That's the one thing that will ruin the skiing for me.  Sleet is fine; punching through crust sucks.

I was in Belleayre last Wednesday and conditions were already excellent, it's going to be beyond epic this week. 

 

I'm pretty much out of vacation days, but can always get sick

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Euro looks great. Solid foot island wide. RGEM 10”+. Lets goooo

Yep nice 6-12 inche storm coming and the snow will last a long time since it will be below freezing for a week.

[SACRUS]

The RGEM dumps about a inch of liquid as snow between 4AM and 4PM before mixing moves in and we lose about .5 - .6 to sleet.  very impressive overrunning front end.  This is all snow to this point the next hour has sleet moving to i78

 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I was in Belleayre last Wednesday and conditions were already excellent, it's going to be beyond epic this week. 

 

I'm pretty much out of vacation days, but can always get sick

Downhill in teh Catskills will be great.  I'm looking for some nice skiing in the woods on LI.  I'm not one to stick to the trails.

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep nice 6-12 inche storm coming and the snow will last a long time since it will be below freezing for a week.

I told my family 8-14 Wednesday and said maybe more if we stayed all snow but I still think the 8-14 looks very good 

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z RGEM is the best run I've seen in a while from any model. Very impressive thump with several hours of 0.1"+ liquid and it shifted the sleet line meaningfully south! Unfortunately when the 3rd party graphics for the RGEM and NAM differ with northern extent of sleet, it's usually best to go with the NAM. But a shift south is still welcomed. 

I also like that it ends as snow on the tailend, it probably will be more mood flakes then amount to anything but something just feels nicer when the storm ends as snow.

[nycsnow]

Just now, SACRUS said:

The RGEM dumps about a inch of liquid as snow between 4AM and 4PM before mixing moves in and we lose about .5 - .6 to sleet.  very impressive overrunning front end.  This is all snow to this point the next hour has sleet moving to i78

 

Can’t wait to see the battle, we’ve seen before sleet to snow back to sleet to both 

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Both

I figured as much so that tempers the excitement for the higher totals a bit but either way even with a lot of sleet this is going to be a high impact storm and this is going to be one of the most wintry looking weeks that we've had in years maybe a decade or so with the snow and ice sticking around for a long time. Kind of '14'15 ish

[Winterweatherlover]

RGEM seems around 2 inch per hour rates between 10:00 am-4:00 pm in NYC Metro.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

The RGEM dumps about a inch of liquid as snow between 4AM and 4PM before mixing moves in and we lose about .5 - .6 to sleet.  very impressive overrunning front end.  This is all snow to this point the next hour has sleet moving to i78

 

So would probably add up to about a foot even if assuming 10-1 snow ratio. 0.6” as sleet would be 1.8”, almost 2” plus the 10” snow. 

[mob1]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

I figured as much so that tempers the excitement for the higher totals a bit but either way even with a lot of sleet this is going to be a high impact storm and this is going to be one of the most wintry looking weeks that we've had in years maybe a decade or so with the snow and ice sticking around for a long time. Kind of '14'15 ish

I still have surprisingly decent snow coverage here, so technically this counts as the fabled snow on snow people north of me always talk about. 

[kat5hurricane]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I still have surprisingly decent snow coverage here, so technically this counts as the fabled snow on snow people north of me always talk about. 

In Brooklyn? I'm surprised. I have virtually nothing here and I'm well north of you in Whitestone, Queens.

Either way, we're all getting thumped tomorrow so it'll be fun.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

I still have surprisingly decent snow coverage here, so technically this counts as the fabled snow on snow people north of me always talk about. 

Alot of snow piles in big parking lots

[mob1]

Just now, kat5hurricane said:

In Brooklyn? I'm surprised. I have virtually nothing here and I'm well north of you in Whitestone, Queens.

Staten Island (I should really update that). I have about 300-400' elevation and don't get nearly the foot or car traffic I had in Brooklyn and it makes a big difference. 

 

I'll take and post a pic in a minute