Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: 6-10 inches by followed by 2 inches of sleet! this snow will last into March lol Sleet is happening we got consensus now we have to just look at radar and nowcast True it's not all bad, just dissapointing given the expectations but also the writing has kind of been on the wall for a few days now. The sleet will at least keep the snow from going anywhere for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: GFS is just an absolutely attrocious model, 10 straight runs or so of all/mainly snow in NYC and now this. Why not get rid of the gfs instead of the NAM? If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally. I was thinking a couple days ago that this one has similarities locally to that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm. Your post is making it like the area isn’t seeing much lol…. I’m 30 miles north of the city and still could see a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, jm1220 said: If you understand the pattern and type of system we have it’s not too difficult to figure out what we’re dealing with. We have a deepening trough too far west and SE ridging, retreating confluence and retreating high. The difference between this and 10000 other lame SWFEs in the past is the big overrunning surface in place and high pressure to provide a wide area of heavy snow before the warm mid levels win out. But eventually it will win out, that was clear 2-3 days ago. It’s a matter of maxing out the snow when the cold air is still there. This is a setup that favors heavy snow along I-90 not here, and eventually every model was going to figure that out. Sucks but we can’t change it. Hopefully we can make more happen with all the cold air we’ll have for the next 10 days, the pattern looks to become more favorable for our type of storm. True I was thinking this should be our storm given the level of cold air in place but then I remember the 90s and how we'd be at 10 degrees and go snow to sleet to rain. At least we're not 10 degrees today and pouring tomorrow so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman92 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 All the crazy shopping and people going nuts on the news for about 6 hours of light snow and 4 hours of heavy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Disappointed but that happens when you model hug and hope for high expectations. Still a decent storm but hoping for over a foot you’ll be on a cliff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 58 minutes ago, hooralph said: The NAM is the Aaron Rodgers of models Clearly ready for the exit Was always flawed but racked up some big wins in its career Problematic in ways that distract from its strengths (but fans like it for being "contrarian") People vigorously rooting for it to lose Still capable of some key plays that make it impossible to write off This is great, but I was waiting for some reference to its Achilles' heel, not that I would know what that might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 No changes to Upton's AFD as of 10:29AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12z GFS QPF Snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory Definitely not. The combination of snow/sleet + cold temps are definitely warning criteria. In many ways the ice component will make this worse than a standard 1 foot snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, nycsnow said: This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory The ice accumulation potential and very cold temps make it a winter storm warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 37 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I agree with you. Discount the NAM at your own risk at this range. Especially since the new RRFS is trending towards it. Over the years people have been burned really bad tossing the NAM in these types of setups How does that old saying go? When snowman19 appears in the thread, that means 6 more inches of sleet? Just kidding, appreciate your pov.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Definitely not. The combination of snow/sleet + cold temps are definitely warning criteria. In many ways the ice component will make this worse than a standard 1 foot snowstorm Need a jack hammer to shovel. Might have to clear the snow before it changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: 12z GFS QPF Snowfall very deceiving for areas receiving the heavy sleet accumulation also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Still A lot of time to trend either way which can be good or bad. Like we’ve been saying 2-4 hour difference is literally inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 8 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call. The NWS also went overly aggressive, like way too aggressive so those totals will be lowered soon I'd think. The GFS should almost always be discounted especially when it's on its own like it was in this case. Who knows if the models are even right with the progression of the sleet line. Nothing except the outlier nam shows 4 or 5 inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 9 minutes ago, eduggs said: The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally. Ahh, memories: National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 318 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-162300- /O.CON.KPHI.WS.W.0001.201216T1700Z-201217T1500Z/ Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 318 AM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From noon today to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute tonight and the morning commute on Thursday. Heavy snow and gusty winds could result in power outages. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in from southwest to northeast this afternoon and early evening. The snow could become heavy at times tonight before ending Thursday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: Need a jack hammer to shovel. Might have to clear the snow before it changes and then when its sleeting keep shoveling it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend At this stage, I'm using a combination of all of them. I think by 18z we'll see some convergence among them. I generally prefer the RGEM except when it's an outlier among the mesoscale models. Once we're < 24 hours out, I start giving more weight to the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, nycsnow said: This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory It hasn’t even started yet and like @jm1220said the swfe storms very rarely give the coast a big snowfall. We’d all be begging for this one last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Snowman92 said: All the crazy shopping and people going nuts on the news for about 6 hours of light snow and 4 hours of heavy snow The stores were a mess yesterday. Schools might also close on Monday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, nycsnow said: Still A lot of time to trend either way which can be good or bad. Like we’ve been saying 2-4 hour difference is literally inches of snow The overall setup isn't going to trend at this point but the timing and intensity of the front end thump could still make a big difference between like 5 and 10 inches for many in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: very deceiving for areas receiving the heavy sleet accumulation also Yeah my area might get 2"+ of sleet accumulation on top of 5-6" of snow. That's a very big deal and temps stay several degrees below freezing Will be an absolute nightmare to deal with though. Clearing that stuff out will suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6 minutes ago, nycsnow said: This is turning into an absolute joke of a storm. lol high end winter weather advisory no dude it'll be snowing heavily all day tomorrow! changing to sleet north of let's say Mahopac it'll stay all snow! It's going to be an over performer in my opinion people are going to be thinking all the sleet meanwhile the thump will overperform and stack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Who knows if the models are even right with the progression of the sleet line. Nothing except the outlier nam shows 4 or 5 inches. The NAM kind of led the way with this, I'd put a lot more stock into it than usual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Who knows if the models are even right with the progression of the sleet line. Nothing except the outlier nam shows 4 or 5 inches. Why wouldn't they be right? Theres nothing to stop the sleet line in this setup other then enhanced snowfall rates temporarily slowing it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Your post is making it like the area isn’t seeing much lol…. I’m 30 miles north of the city and still could see a foot. Absolutely, like I said there are differences between this and most SWFEs. If we get clobbered for 5-6 hours before the sleet we’ll all do very well and no one will complain. Last Feb we did well, on the high end of expectations, Nov 2018 is another example and there are others where the snow came in gangbusters. But fundamentally this is a SWFE and the overall setup isn’t favorable for NYC heavy snow. Hopefully we luck out. And 30 miles north of the city, I assume in N Westchester maybe you won’t see much sleet and we dryslot before it comes. But on the low end we have to acknowledge the NAM is a possibility if we get crappy rates/snow growth to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 433 FXUS61 KOKX 241529 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1029 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes with the forecast for the upcoming major winter storm and prolonged cold conditions. && Upton pre GFS. “No significant changes”Wait and see what changes(if any) in the next update. regardless, if we can squeeze out snowfall rates of 1-2” per hour for 6-8 hours, we should still end up with a very significant snowfall. Then the sleet will just turn everything into cement. With extended cold in the forecast, whatever is left ain’t going anywhere fast This is still going to be an extremely impactful event regardless of the potential mixing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juturna Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 As long as it’s messy enough to close school Monday, I’ll take it. Handicapped, and my snow cleaning crew ain’t digging me out till Monday I’m sure. My town has already canceled garbage pickup Monday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now