NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 12 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said: Besides the thermals, I guess I also worry that the storm ends up moving past us even faster than models suggest it will. It seems that often ends up happening, unless its a prolonged overrunning or crawling coastal. There have been plenty of times where we expect storms to last 12 hours but in reality they pass by in about 8 to 10. This is the type of storm that will have some unexpected surprises - now casting time..........I also wouldn't be surprised if there is an unexpected large dry slot that develops because of a sloppy transfer of the storm to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: God that's an ugly sounding for NYC. I wonder if the warm layer being between 700mb and 850mb makes it less likely to show up on 3rd party graphics for other models... maybe other models don't generate and distribute temperature data in between the more common pressure heights. Nothing we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: How does the FV3 usually do with thermals ? Synoptically it tracks with the GFS. So usually too cold. Too bad though because it's a snowy solution... right into Mon. morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 According to Gemini (aka "ask Jeeves"): In 2026, the FV3 model (specifically in its High-Resolution Window and GFS implementations) is noted for a more conservative approach to "warm noses" (elevated layers of air above freezing) compared to older models like the NAM. Warm Nose Prediction Characteristics Layer Integrity: The FV3 tends to maintain colder column integrity better than the NAM. In winter weather setups, it often predicts a weaker or later-arriving warm nose, which can lead to forecasts for more persistent snow while other models might suggest an earlier transition to sleet or rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 11 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: How does the FV3 usually do with thermals ? unreliable model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Desperate times call for desperate measures! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 reggie and gfs next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I take it as the worst possible outcome and the hi-res RGEM as the best because of the front end thump that still drops 10-12" despite changing most of us over. That said if sleet really makes it to I-84 those of us down here are screwed for anything major and we might struggle to make it to a warning criteria event. We're not there yet but by tonight if the NAM still totally sucks I'll take it more seriously. I didn't like the GFS cutting back at 6z either. NAM has been too aggressive with the warm layer in the past but it will probably be more right than other models close in. We should also monitor obs in the South/TN Valley for how far the warm layer is advancing vs what models have. My sister is in spring hill south of Nashville is snowing there already. Best real time updates possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1/24 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Snow by 4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Nothing we can do.is there anything we can do about any weather? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, SACRUS said: Snow by 4AM i doubt that reaches the ground, it's very dry. I'd say 7am start time in the city proper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Heavy snow by 1:00 with sleet into far southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 All we can do is hope several inches pile up before the changeover. It’s happening. Just have to hope for the best 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Just now, SACRUS said: GFS caved, sleet already into NYC at 4:00 pm tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 39 minutes ago, nycsnow said: Icon is colder than nam and in nyc area it’s only .5- inch different from 06z so I’d say it held steady?? It also shows half the QPF as sleet (or rain - SNJ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS is just an absolutely attrocious model, 10 straight runs or so of all/mainly snow in NYC and now this. Why not get rid of the gfs instead of the NAM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcmmKU Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Here's the HRRR's total snowfall map using the model's own assessment of the snow-liquid ratio: I feel this is way too aggressive for I95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 FWIW I'm pretty sure the 10:1 counts sleet as snow on the Pivotal graphics for the RRFS. In this case the Kuchera algorithm (while not great) is better for visualizing snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: primary still in control and a sleet fest in progress across most of NJ except for the far southern counties - NOT GOOD ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 I think 6-10 is the best guess for NYC. Nothing shows 12. Gfs is trash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Amongst other things, the NWS has me at 7 to 13 inches, then ice. This forecast covers from central Delaware to NW NJ. Makes no sense, this should be broken into several different zones. They usually do that for these situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MarcmmKU said: I feel this is way too aggressive for I95 I agree. I posted it, because a member mentioned that the 10:1 ratios don't reflect further north. I think it's too aggressive and too cold for the I-95 Corridor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said: I feel this is way too aggressive for I95 does that include sleet accumulation ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6-10 inches by followed by 2 inches of sleet! this snow will last into March lol Sleet is happening we got consensus now we have to just look at radar and nowcast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. I posted it, because a member mentioned that the 10:1 ratios don't reflect further north. I think it's too aggressive and too cold for the I-95 Corridor. so what is the best mesoscale model to use this go around ? The HRRR performed well last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 The lead in forecast evolution for tomorrow's storm reminds me a lot of the December 2020 across our area (differences of course especially SNE and mid-Atl). The big snows for that one slipped away too but the impact was still significant locally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think 6-10 is the best guess for NYC. Nothing shows 12. Gfs is trash I don't see 10 tbh, maybe in the northern Bronx but this looks to be a quick heavy thump with a few hours of heavy rates. 4-8" might be a better call. The NWS also went overly aggressive, like way too aggressive so those totals will be lowered soon I'd think. The GFS should almost always be discounted especially when it's on its own like it was in this case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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