donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: Just a reminder that 850mb is not the warmest layer. The warmest NAM layer (in between 850mb and 700mb) is several degrees C warmer than 850mb. The sounding at 84 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said: euro was also consistent with last weekends system going out to sea true untill later Friday it started trending west - so still time for adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: hoping the UKIE looks a bit better. 500 level seems to indicate northern stream lagging a bit compared to 6z, let's see if that leads to a bit less amplification. Shaves a couple inches off its 00z run - aligned with other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: It's 3 days out, not 5-6, we have some sense of what is going to happen at this point, just not the fine details. and the # 1 finer details are the snow-sleet-ice-rain lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 how's uncle what's it showing, driving to the city right now can't check. extrapolate the run if you don't mind ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 12z UKMET total QPF Total snow / sleet (10:1) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 First part of the storm should feature some good ratios. About -10C on all levels, temps in the DGZ region is ideal (-12 to 18 Celsius is what you want to see) and winds aren't overly strong. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 12Z : NYC area Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1 NAM (84H) : 0.7 / (6.7) RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0) ICON : 1.4 / (8.5) GFS: 1.4 / (12.5) GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2) UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5) Updated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Risk here is primary handoff to coastal and slotting. I think coastal areas, especially Jersey and ELI have a period of sleet, but the slotting on Monday with primary handoff is a tricky feature. Should still be a very solid event, just a mater of top end 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 12z GEFS Total QPF mean - storm Total Snow / sleet (10:1) : LP Mean lean 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 12z GEFS Total QPF mean - storm Total Snow / sleet (10:1) : LP Mean lean that looks south of 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 12Z : NYC area Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1 NAM (84H) : 0.7 / (6.7) RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0) ICON : 1.4 / (8.5) GFS: 1.4 / (12.5) GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2) UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5) GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8) Updated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Sure would be nice for the GFS to score for once. GEFS also look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Upton kokx area forecast discussion not buying into the mix. They say it is a more unlikely scenario to have maxing than not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Prue11 said: Upton kokx area forecast discussion not buying into the mix. They say it is a more unlikely scenario to have maxing than not As arctic high pressure drops out of Central Canada and into the Plains into Saturday, surface low pressure organizes across the Deep South with strong shortwave energy swinging east. The low is progged to move off the Carolina coast Saturday night or Sunday, passing nearby Sunday night into Monday. With help from reconnaissance data in the EPac, global ensemble systems and their respective AI counterparts continue to hone in on a more amplified, northern solution of the developing low pressure, leading to more moisture locally. Working in favor of the snow is the arctic air mass in place leading into the storm. 925 mb temps look to fall toward -20C or below on Saturday, with surface temperatures progged in the teens during the afternoon; likely one of the coldest days in several years. This will allow all snow to start very late Saturday night or Sunday morning as the associated WAA with the system gets into full swing. SLRs given the arctic profiles should be above 15:1 at least to begin, before gradually lowering through Sunday as the boundary slowly warms. Sunday appears to be when most of the snowfall and accumulation occurs. Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible enough warm air could materialize aloft near the coast to force mixing or a changeover, especially later Sunday or Sunday night. Of course, this would cut down on snow totals were it to occur, but also introduce icing concerns. This doesn`t appear to be the most likely solution at the moment however, with ensemble means putting the low somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark, and not as far north as recent operational runs of the deterministic ECMWF and CMC. In line with WPC, total QPF through Monday sits around an inch for coastal areas, and closer to 0.75 inches inland. With an all snow event, or nearly so, this would produce a warning level snowfall across the local Tri State, with highest totals possibly eclipsing a foot. NBM v5.0 probabilities of at least 6 inches have consistently sat above 90 percent region-wide, and around 50 percent for at least a foot. Every single one of the 00Z Euro AIFS members yields a warning level (6 inch+) snowfall for NYC, an impressive signal at this stage. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 50 minutes ago, VlinderF said: Greetings! During this period of model-hugging and pointless arguing, I thought I'd introduce myself. I'm a looongtime lurker, going back to the days of Bill Evans's WABC board, when metsfan/snow88/MJO was just a young whippersnapper working at CVS. Lurked on Eastern and the NYC Metro Weather forums for a long time too, but mostly here now. As one of the rare folks in this forum who actually lives near Central Park, I thought I'd throw my hat in the ring. Hoping for some good snow soon, as it's been...a while around here. Also thought this forum could benefit from someone who can actually vouch for the measurements in CPK, which, honestly...usually sound about right to me. This last Sunday, while the Park reported 0.4 in the morning (on grass that had a little from the day before), in the surrounding neighborhood we got ZERO/NADA/white rain until the evening round, when we picked up about an inch, and only then on grass/cars/etc. It really is different in Manhattan in those borderline-ass storms. But for this weekend, even 6 inches of solid snow and a sleet-fest on top would be the most exciting winter weather around here since about 2021. Here's hoping. Welcome. I'm on the West side near the river. I suggest we average our measurements for a NYC total as we do tend to be a tad colder over here than the East side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, TriPol said: I wonder whether this storm will extend New York City’s inability to produce a true one-foot snowfall. Since 2010, only four storms have delivered 12 inches or more, and it has now been nearly a decade since the last one. That appears to be the longest stretch in the city’s recorded history between winter storms producing a foot or more of snow. NYC had a 17 inch snowfall in 2021 https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/BiggestSnowstorms.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Never underestimate the warm nose. It'll rear its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I like this map right now 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astoriaweather Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, TJW014 said: Never underestimate the warm nose. It'll rear its ugly head. There was a storm in March 2017. Was supposed to be all snow. 15 to 20 inches was forecast. In Manhattan, about 6 inches fell quickly during the morning time and then it turned into a massive, pounding sleet storm that persisted well into the evening. It was a huge bust. But It then froze the next day. And, despite it being March with March Sun, the snow/ice was so packed that it stayed on the ground, even in the city, till late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I like this map right now Long Island is getting way more than 4 inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: As arctic high pressure drops out of Central Canada and into the Plains into Saturday, surface low pressure organizes across the Deep South with strong shortwave energy swinging east. The low is progged to move off the Carolina coast Saturday night or Sunday, passing nearby Sunday night into Monday. With help from reconnaissance data in the EPac, global ensemble systems and their respective AI counterparts continue to hone in on a more amplified, northern solution of the developing low pressure, leading to more moisture locally. Working in favor of the snow is the arctic air mass in place leading into the storm. 925 mb temps look to fall toward -20C or below on Saturday, with surface temperatures progged in the teens during the afternoon; likely one of the coldest days in several years. This will allow all snow to start very late Saturday night or Sunday morning as the associated WAA with the system gets into full swing. SLRs given the arctic profiles should be above 15:1 at least to begin, before gradually lowering through Sunday as the boundary slowly warms. Sunday appears to be when most of the snowfall and accumulation occurs. Depending on the ultimate track of the system, it remains possible enough warm air could materialize aloft near the coast to force mixing or a changeover, especially later Sunday or Sunday night. Of course, this would cut down on snow totals were it to occur, but also introduce icing concerns. This doesn`t appear to be the most likely solution at the moment however, with ensemble means putting the low somewhere near the 40N/70W benchmark, and not as far north as recent operational runs of the deterministic ECMWF and CMC. In line with WPC, total QPF through Monday sits around an inch for coastal areas, and closer to 0.75 inches inland. With an all snow event, or nearly so, this would produce a warning level snowfall across the local Tri State, with highest totals possibly eclipsing a foot. NBM v5.0 probabilities of at least 6 inches have consistently sat above 90 percent region-wide, and around 50 percent for at least a foot. Every single one of the 00Z Euro AIFS members yields a warning level (6 inch+) snowfall for NYC, an impressive signal at this stage. Like stated doesn’t appear to be the most likely scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1/22 12z Euro AI AIFS total QPF storm Total Snow / Sleet (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Long Island is getting way more than 4 inches snowfall maps at this range are a waste of time and can be dangerous - think about it........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Watches up URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic- Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Precipitation could mix with sleet and freezing rain for a time Sunday night especially closer to the coast. Potential for snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches, with localized accumulations over 12 inches possible. * WHERE...All of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, and southern Connecticut. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below one quarter mile in heavy snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons should consider delaying all travel from Sunday into Monday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I like this map right now Too low for LI imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 12Z : NYC area Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1 NAM (84H) : 0.7 / (6.7) RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0) ICON : 1.4 / (8.5) GFS: 1.4 / (12.5) GGEM: 1.2 / (8.2) UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0 / (8.5) GEFS: 1.4 / (12.8) Euro AI AIFS: 1.2 / (11.1) Updated as we wait for the euro to complete the suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 EURO-AI a bit more north, slightly warmer at 850. Not a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: Watches up URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic- Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Precipitation could mix with sleet and freezing rain for a time Sunday night especially closer to the coast. Potential for snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches, with localized accumulations over 12 inches possible. * WHERE...All of southeast New York, northeast New Jersey, and southern Connecticut. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below one quarter mile in heavy snow. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons should consider delaying all travel from Sunday into Monday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded. && really left their options open - 6 inches to over a foot- BIG DIFFERENCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, NEG NAO said: really left their options open - 6 inches to over a foot- BIG DIFFERENCE Yeah can definitely adjust come warning time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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