Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18 minutes ago, eduggs said: "Wet" as in intense rates, which is true considering it falls in about 12 hours. Temps between 700mb and 850mb surge during the day on Sunday and no longer support snow by Sunday evening for much of the forum. It's a high impact event but shorter in duration than some other models. We had over 2’ in 12 hours February 2013 in Suffolk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Watches flying all over in VA, PA, NJ, NY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Atleast 1/3 of the United States is under a winter storm watch/warning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Warm nose apparent on the ICON at 06z - ugly depiction and a big step back from OOZ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Not very often that you see winter storm headlines cover that much real estate. In NNE, those are actually extreme cold watches. Impressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 By the time all is said amd done, this storm will mostly be remembered for the areas that recieve ice, and the following arctic air. Sure doesnt look like the blockbuster metropolis snowstorm we were hoping would thread the needle. Im enjoying watching the evolution of model outputs, particularly the AI versions. We have a longgggg way to go with AI models, and without sampling, its evident that solutions will likely not verify at a higher level than traditional models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 06z GFS is approximately an 18 hour event across the metro and continues to remain on the colder side of the guidance . 10-15 inches region wide. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: 0z GFS is approximately an 18 hour event across the metro and continues to remain on the colder side of the guidance . 10-15 inches region wide. You see 6z? Lol. 12-20”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: You see 6z? Lol. 12-20”+ I meant 6z, my mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb. In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled. Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I’m not buying it either for my area but I think the mix line could make it up to southern Monmouth As long as it doesn’t make it to MMU, amirite??. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, North and West said: . Exactly - having gone through one of the historic ice storms of the 1990's, there's nothing "nice" about them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 36 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Need to watch out for the warm layer, it’s not going to be at 850mb. In these situations warm air loves to punch in around 700mb and is often faster than modeled. Need to watch the NAM Friday and Saturday Yep Euro is too close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Do you guys see the pattern? The 6z and 18Z always take steps back. Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6z euro snow maps really reflecting that sleet / rain mix. Obviously cut totals down to single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Snowguy66 said: Do you guys see the pattern? The 6z and 18Z always take steps back. Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z. It’s not just 6z and 18z. 12z and 0z are showing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s really not overly complicated, if we have a strong 700/850 low go NW of us, we will mix eventually-plain and simple. That means the winds at those levels are from the south and a warm direction. It doesn’t matter that the surface is cold. We could have a lot of snow fall before then but the same mechanism driving all the moisture from the Gulf also brings warm air. If the snow comes in like a wall it helps hold the warm mid level air back and we can pile it up quickly, if it comes in like shredded garbage it will disappoint and we get sleet sooner. We could also dry slot before or as that warm air arrives since dry air will pivot around the mid level lows from the south. We need the mid level confluence to force a further south transfer. If se see that retreating we have a typical SWFE setup. There’s the other possibility of a coastal system bringing snow back in but I think that won’t be determined until we’re closer in. Why is every storm a SWFE now, really missing real coastal storms and CCB snow, hopefully we get one this year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: 6z euro snow maps really reflecting that sleet / rain mix. Obviously cut totals down to single digits. Which map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Yep Euro is too closeSo… what are the pros saying at nws…my holly says a good thump but we probably see even plain rain all the way to the coastal plain with everything in between…. Upton sees sleet doesn’t mention much about rain. What’s probably off the table: a 2 foot blizzard. What could happen; a decent snow that mixes in all the suspect places. What happens in the south and mid Atlantic is not of any interest to me or mine, but I do not wish ice and snow on them because most people there don’t want or like snow and no one in their right mind likes ice. Finally, the weather services say there is a strong guidance for 6 inches plus and maybe 10, they just can’t nail it down and upton is hesitant to put a watch up but considered it. So, after a boring couple winters, are you not entertained?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, weatherpruf said: So… what are the pros saying at nws…my holly says a good thump but we probably see even plain rain all the way to the coastal plain with everything in between…. Upton sees sleet doesn’t mention much about rain. What’s probably off the table: a 2 foot blizzard. What could happen; a decent snow that mixes in all the suspect places. What happens in the south and mid Atlantic is not of any interest to me or mine, but I do not wish ice and snow on them because most people there don’t want or like snow and no one in their right mind likes ice. Finally, the weather services say there is a strong guidance for 6 inches plus and maybe 10, they just can’t nail it down and upton is hesitant to put a watch up but considered it. So, after a boring couple winters, are you not entertained? . Everyone should be happy . This looks like snow to sleet for many on the coast with possibly snow to rain for SNJ southward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Do you guys see the pattern? The 6z and 18Z always take steps back. Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z.The weather service sees the sleet and even rain potential. It is likely. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My temperature went from the teens to the 20s on Sunday now. Honestly, I see that as a good thing. Remember and you know, the big storms always bring the warm nose and mix, Blizzard of 96 had a big sleet session and I still got 30+. IMO based of of my 35 years of snow storms, prime time temps are 25-28 degrees! The old saying, cold and dry, warm and wet! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Didn't see any mention of the Euro AI from 6z. It's outstanding. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 11 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Do you guys see the pattern? The 6z and 18Z always take steps back. Throw them out and only look at the. 12Z and 00Z. No pattern Upton has sleet mixed in now for Monday morning here in Brooklyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Looks like most of us should see at least 6” before any mixing potential Sunday with the stronger Southeast ridge and weaker 50/50 low than originally forecast. New run Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Why is every storm a SWFE now, really missing real coastal storms and CCB snow, hopefully we get one this year We’re still not in a regime that allows for big coastal storms like before 2020. Still very progressive and favoring fast moving/suppressed or SWFE type systems. If this one trends to a SWFE type system although one that’s much larger and more far reaching than usual it would fit the mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: Honestly, I see that as a good thing. Remember and you know, the big storms always bring the warm nose and mix, Blizzard of 96 had a big sleet session and I still got 30+. IMO based of of my 35 years of snow storms, prime time temps are 25-28 degrees! The old saying, cold and dry, warm and wet! If we get 10” of snow with sleet mixed in at the end that will all freeze up and thicken the snowpack up, count that as a big win. Rather that than 15” all snow that melts faster. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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