BoulderWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Friendly reminder 6z is usually full of shenanigans, let's keep the overreactions either way in check! . I think you mean 18z an 6z (18z up next) and there’s much debate on how accurate that is. But your point about overreactions is valid lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18Z GFS late last week had a crazy run with 30-50 inches of snow in PA and some nearby places-it was gone on the next run-but yeah the 18Z run (happy hour run) has shown some crazy solutions over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 19 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Friendly reminder 6z is usually full of shenanigans, let's keep the overreactions either way in check! . At least we aren't in range yet to get 18Z Nam'ed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I think you mean 18z an 6z (18z up next) and there’s much debate on how accurate that is. But your point about overreactions is valid lolOops yea meant 18z, but same applies to 6z lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 I cant get over how they spit out amounts and predictions 5 days in advance as IMO its a joke,,,,,,here is what a quick search said for my area Sunday and Sunday nite = Sunday Day -Watching a potential winter storm. Cloudy with snow. High 12F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 70%. 3 to 5 inches of snow expected. Sunday Night 11° Watching a potential winter storm. Occasional snow showers. Low 11F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 60%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Icon is a bit south probably around 30 miles or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: Icon is a bit south probably around 30 miles or so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: Actually its slightly north 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Yea the icon would've been a foot Plus. Gfs looking much better early on also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The GFS is now very similar to the Euro with how it handles the Southern trough. Let’s see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS AI way north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS should be better this run. It’s ejecting the Southern energy faster and the Northern piece is a hair slower and further West. Just about to post that hopefully it hooks up with the northern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: Just about to post that hopefully it hooks up with the northern branch It’s already beginning to interact at 06z Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1/20 18Z Total QPF ICON: (120H) in line with 12z GFS: 0.3 - 0.4 GFS AID: 0.5 - 0.6 GEFS: 0.6 Euro AI AIFS: 0.6 - 0.7 Euro : 0.9 - 1.1(+) through and more to come (144H) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Actually its slightly north the low is ur right but the precip is a bit sharper and that's south. Good thing is the low is north and stronger that's what we need. sorry about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 She’s about to go boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS AIFS Total QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Gfs AI is well north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. T. Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: She’s about to go boom Gotta look at the 500 maps! Keep posting (amazing to see a good phase if it happens). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: If the temp is 30-31 with the heavy freezing rain absolutely-a lot will just run off. When it gets below about 28 or so much more of it will accrete. Agree. The pictured event took place with temperatures between 28 and 30. It caused widespread power outages 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s already beginning to interact at 06z Saturday. Seems like its been slowly trending towards doing more of that too. Here's the last 7 runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Going to be a big hit. Surface is way North. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Going to be a big hit. Surface is way North. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 IF GFS is right, I'm going to see my family in NC - would be a once in a lifetime snowstorm for them verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though There was no snow up here on 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: Big improvement from 12z but does skirt east before the benchmark; nice run though gfs catching up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GFS made a big move north. Wagons North. Trends aligning favorable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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