Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[SACRUS]

 

00Z QPF Summary NYC

 

GFS: 0.4
GGEM: 0.9- 1.1
UKMET: 0.8 - 1.0
GEFS: 0.4 - 0.6
GEPS (Canadian Ensemble mean QPF): 0.8 - 1.0
Euro AI AIFS: 0.4 - 0.6
ECMWF:  Coming.. 1.0

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Post more maps guys.  Don't just say north/south etc, show us something.  I honestly don't even care anymore if it's just a snow map. I gave up on that years ago at this point. 

euro is a full phase, ends up tucking offshore. huge hit 

that run to run change is nuts 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

euro is a full phase, ends up tucking offshore. huge hit 

that run to run change is nuts 

2 surface lows?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

2 surface lows?

it’s overrunning to coastal

[Stormlover74]

It goes into Tuesday 

[SnowGoose69]

Euro/AI solution makes more sense as to how it evolves.  I still like flatter down in the Deep South with more a late evolution to near the CMC idea off the MA coast

[SACRUS]

Euro total QPF

 

long duration into Tue

 

[Rjay]

[Jersey_Snowhole]

looks like gfs and gfs AI 6z is south 

[MJO812]

3 hours ago, Rjay said:

Its great to see the Euro now on board. 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its great to see the Euro now on board. 

Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there 

Maybe a 2 part system? Euro focused on the trailing wave. 

Gfs

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Yea GFS went south a little. I'm not worried about that much though. Models are gonna move around. Just happy to see an intense storm still there 

It didn't really. It just sharpened the northern extent. Totals for mid Atlantic went up. 

Last few runs have notably increased SE ridging, which is good in this instance 

[Franklin0529]

I mean the city still gets 6" more in South Jersey. This is the low end of guidance so far. Need to get this till like Thursday then we can lock in details 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its great to see the Euro now on board. 

Agreed gfs did horrible with the last storm good to have the euro in our camp

[MJO812]

Just now, Franklin0529 said:

I mean the city still gets 6" more in South Jersey. This is the low end of guidance so far. Need to get this till like Thursday then we can lock in details 

Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high.

I know still about 6-8". Not a bad spot to be lol

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Agreed gfs did horrible with the last storm good to have the euro in our camp

Yea it's horrible 

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has snow in the teens. Ratios will be high.

That depends on the winds. Someone mentioned yesterday this has Blizzard of 96 looks. That was the only storm I can remember that it snowed heavy with cold temps. And regardless of ground temp, there's always some taint mid way through on these big boys! 

[WeatherGeek2025]

CFS

[SnoSki14]

GEFS continues to improve 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS continues to improve 

Yeah strong signal on the GEFS

[donsutherland1]

The latest WPC idea. for comparison, yesterday's 0z probability for a moderate impact in New York City was just under 30%.

[SnoSki14]

Euro AI with a nice hit. Models a bit slower (Sun into Mon) vs Sat evening/night into Sun. 

Slower is better for us as it allows high to weaken and lessens suppression risk

[Nibor]

6z euro continues with the clean phasing. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

6z euro continues with the clean phasing. 

Defintely coming up. Looks really good.

Eps is also slightly further north 

[BoulderWX]

Why is anyone talking about accumulation right now when we know that doesn’t get settled until real time. 
 

as of now it looks like another chance for some snow this weekend; and if all goes right, a significant storm. enjoy the tracking. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

Why is anyone talking about accumulation right now when we know that doesn’t get settled until real time. 
 

as of now it looks like another chance for some snow this weekend; and if all goes right, a significant storm. enjoy the tracking. 

this could be a MECS. figure 8-16 inches are definitely on the table!

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

this could be a MECS. figure 8-16 inches are definitely on the table!

Not trying to get into semantics 5 days out. There’s a chance of a storm - with all options from ‘nothing’ to ‘major’ on the table. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

Not trying to get into semantics 5 days out. There’s a chance of a storm - with all options from ‘nothing’ to ‘major’ on the table. 

It’s a weather board, it’s exactly what we are discussing possibilities. SMH